一次副热带高压控制龙卷雷达回波特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

刘懿枢  马中元  袁春 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2023,17(3):35-43

利用江西WebGIS雷达拼图、单部雷达产品、常规天气、自动站和探空等资料，采用雷达气象学、天气学和中尺度分析等方法，对2020年8月21日江西省九江市都昌县出现的一次龙卷过程进行分析，结果表明：(1)龙卷发生在江西副热带高压(简称“副高”)控制下，地面温度锋区和湿度锋区为对流发生提供动力、热力和湿度梯度条件。(1)龙卷发生前，回波合并排列成短带；龙卷发生时，短带回波南端转为向南延伸发展，强回波边缘陡直，呈狭窄短带形态；60 dBZ强回波中心位于狭窄短带回波后部，都昌县龙卷产生在强回波之中。(3)龙卷回波速度场正负速度对明显，辐合较强，正负速度差值可达20 m·s^-1；低仰角正速度区面积较大，高仰角正速度面积减小。(4)反射率因子垂直剖面RCS(Reflectivity Cross Section)图上，强回波顶高在7 km以下；径向速度垂直剖面VCS(Velocity Cross Section)图上，具有速度辐合结构，达到弱切变标准。  相似文献   

西北太平洋台风群发事件年代际变化特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

张可  方娟 《气象科学》2021,41(5):584-596

利用台风最佳路径资料和全球再分析数据集分析了1979—2018年6—10月西北太平洋地区台风群发事件的统计特征。期间所有台风个例根据群发性质被分为三类：第一类为单独生成的非群发台风；第二类为群发事件中生成，但事件中仅有2个台风成员的"MTC2"台风；第三类为群发事件中生成，且事件中有3个或3个以上台风成员的"MTC3"台风。结果表明，相对于MTC2台风，MTC3台风生成时位置偏北，环境场季风槽辐合更强、高温海区范围更大、中低层大气更湿润。而MTC3台风在1990s末的突变减少导致了西太台风群发事件和台风总数减少。1996年之后，尽管洋面上空仍有较多的热带涡旋扰动，但群发台风活跃的大部分地区垂直风切变增强、高空辐散和季风槽辐合减弱以及西太平洋热带季节内振荡事件（Madden-Julian Oscillation，MJO）的对流活跃位相维持日数减少，它们共同导致了MTC3事件的年代际变化。  相似文献   

11个S2S模式对MJO预报效果的评估分析          下载免费PDF全文

彭阳  李晓静  姚永红  唐佑民 《气象科学》2021,41(3):339-348

利用次季节—季节预报研究计划(Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, S2S)的多模式产品集,系统评估了产品集中11个模式对MJO的实际预报技巧。如果以距平相关系数ACC为0.5作为有效预报技巧的阈值,S2S各模式的MJO实际预报时效为8～32 d。S2S各模式预报普遍低估了MJO的振幅强度,且预报的MJO传播速度偏慢。通过分析发现,在一个集合预报系统中,集合离散度与均方根误差越接近,它的MJO预报技巧越高。此外,分析S2S各模式MJO预报技巧对起报时间、季节和起报时MJO信号强弱的敏感性发现,当起报时间为冬季且起报时MJO为强信号时,MJO的实际预报技巧较高。  相似文献   

Millennial- to centennial-scale anti-phase relationship between the Westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon and its cultural response along the Silk Roads after a great earthquake in southern Altay ~ 3500 cal a BP     

Jiawei Fan  Hongyan Xu  Hanchao Jiang  Xiaotong Wei  Wei Shi  Qiaoqiao Guo  Siqi Zhang  Xianzhou Bai  Xingqi Liu  Jule Xiao 《第四纪科学杂志》2023,38(1):123-137

It is strongly debated whether the Westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are in-phase, anti-phase or out-of-phase, and how hydroclimatic changes in the above two climate systems affected trans-Eurasian cultural exchanges during the late Holocene. In this study, we establish a 3500-a-long paleoclimatic sequence based on high-resolution analyses of sedimentological and geochemical data of a well-dated sediment core from Yileimu Lake in southern Altay. High percentages of the >63-µm fraction and high values of Zr/Rb and Rb/Sr ratios indicate strong transport of weakly weathered, coarse sediments into the depocenter of the lake caused by enhanced surface runoff and catchment erosion associated with a wet climate, and vice versa. High values of Ca and total inorganic carbon (TIC) contents imply increased precipitation of endogenic carbonates in the lake water under intense evaporation associated with a dry climate, and vice versa. This new record indicates two wet intervals at 3500–2300 and 600–100 cal a bp , interrupted by a severe and prolonged dry interval from 2300 to 1000 cal a bp , and a mild dry interval with occasionally wet conditions from 1000 to 600 cal a bp. These results are broadly consistent with other paleoclimatic records in Westerlies-dominated Asia and are generally anti-phase with those in the EASM region. We suggest that a strengthening/weakening and southward/northward migration of the Westerlies during a negative/positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) transported more/less water vapor into arid Asia. Meanwhile, a decreasing/increasing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) superimposed on a southward/northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) triggered a weakening/strengthening and southward/northward movement of the West-Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), resulting in decreasing/increasing EASM intensity. In addition, the wet climate from 3500 to 2300 cal a bp may have contributed to the development of nomadic herding in the eastern Eurasian Steppe and Altay region, and to the opening of the proto-Silk Roads. Potentially, intense seismic activities in the Altay Mountains ~3500 cal a bp may have also promoted the opening of the proto-Silk Roads by forcing the herdsmen to move to the inter-mountainous basins. The strong EASM intensity from 2300 to 1000 cal a bp in eastern China may have contributed to the creation of the ancient Silk Roads by the Han Dynasty.  相似文献   

MJO活动轨迹对贵州区域强降水过程延伸期预报的影响分析北大核心          下载免费PDF全文

白慧  向波  吴战平  罗阳欢 《气象科学》2022,42(2):193-203

通过对贵州省主汛期季节内振荡(Intra-Seasonal Oscillation,ISO)活跃年进行低频对流场和降水的合成分析,确定了影响贵州主汛期ISO和降水的热带印度洋(Indian Ocean,IO)低频对流关键区和南海(South China Sea,SCS)低频对流关键区,并利用MJO活动轨迹对贵州区域强降水过程开展了延伸期预报试验。将贵州省主汛期ISO位相划分为发展、峰值、减弱、抑制、谷值和恢复6个位相,发现贵州主汛期ISO活跃年的降水与本地区低频对流具有较好的对应关系,即在峰值位相时低频对流最强、降水正异常强度最强;在谷值位相时低频对流最弱、降水负异常强度最强。同时,热带和副热带低频对流场在贵州主汛期ISO波动的第1、4位相、第2、5位相及第3、6位相均呈反位相特征。在热带印度洋低频对流发展、并东传的过程中,有两条传播路径分别激发了孟加拉湾西南季风ISO活跃和南海热带季风ISO活跃共同影响贵州主汛期降水;在贵州主汛期有3个低频对流活跃期,IO关键区和SCS关键区ISO都有3次提前的低频对流加强。基于上述研究,分析MJO活动轨迹对贵州主汛期区域强降水过程的影响,发现热带印度洋MJO活动中心强度在贵州区域强降水过程发生前15 d~前3 d具有较好的持续性预报信号,提前9 d时正相关性最好。与延伸期预报业务规定的预报时段(未来11~30 d)相结合,通过确定贵州典型区域强降水过程发生前(提前量为10 d)至过程结束时段的MJO活动轨迹在历年中的最相似时段,发现MJO活动中心轨迹和强度对贵州区域强降水过程的趋势预报具有较好的指示意义。  相似文献