Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.  相似文献   

Iapetus' geophysics: Rotation rate, shape, and equatorial ridge   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J.C. Castillo-Rogez  D.L. Matson  T.V. Johnson  P.C. Thomas 《Icarus》2007,190(1):179-202

Iapetus has preserved evidence that constrains the modeling of its geophysical history from the time of its accretion until now. The evidence is (a) its present 79.33-day rotation or spin rate, (b) its shape that corresponds to the equilibrium figure for a hydrostatic body rotating with a period of ∼16 h, and (c) its high, equatorial ridge, which is unique in the Solar System. This paper reports the results of an investigation into the coupling between Iapetus' thermal and orbital evolution for a wide range of conditions including the spatial distributions with time of composition, porosity, short-lived radioactive isotopes (SLRI), and temperature. The thermal model uses conductive heat transfer with temperature-dependent conductivity. Only models with a thick lithosphere and an interior viscosity in the range of about the water ice melting point can explain the observed shape. Short-lived radioactive isotopes provide the heat needed to decrease porosity in Iapetus' early history. This increases thermal conductivity and allows the development of the strong lithosphere that is required to preserve the 16-h rotational shape and the high vertical relief of the topography. Long-lived radioactive isotopes and SLRI raise internal temperatures high enough that significant tidal dissipation can start, and despin Iapetus to synchronous rotation. This occurred several hundred million years after Iapetus formed. The models also constrain the time when Iapetus formed because the successful models are critically dependent upon having just the right amount of heat added by SLRI decay in this early period. The amount of heat available from short-lived radioactivity is not a free parameter but is fixed by the time when Iapetus accreted, by the canonical concentration of ²⁶Al, and, to a lesser extent, by the concentration of ⁶⁰Fe. The needed amount of heat is available only if Iapetus accreted between 2.5 and 5.0 Myr after the formation of the calcium aluminum inclusions as found in meteorites. Models with these features allow us to explain Iapetus' present synchronous rotation, its fossil 16-h shape, and the context within which the equatorial ridge arose.  相似文献   

高校贫困生存在的主要道德情感问题及其对策     

饶华  阎钢 《成都信息工程学院学报》2007,22(3):410-415

目前,随着贫困生数量的急剧增加,高校在重视解决贫困生经济困难的同时,往往忽略了他们内心深处潜藏的情绪感受.他们中的大多数产生了不同于一般大学生的道德情感问题.因此,贫困生的道德情感状况、造成此种状况的原因以及培养贫困生的道德情感的路径和方法,便成为对贫困生问题开展深入研究的全新的独特视域.  相似文献   

Composition of hydrated near-Earth object (100085) 1992 UY4     

Eric L. Volquardsen  Andrew S. Rivkin 《Icarus》2007,187(2):464-468

Near-infrared spectra of the near-Earth object (100085) 1992 UY4 are similar to those of P-type asteroids, providing a fitted geometric albedo of 0.052±0.005 and an effective diameter of 1.68±0.08 km. This object, with a likely outer-belt origin, also exhibits a 3-μm absorption feature with a band depth of 3%±1%, corresponding to a regolithic bulk hydrogen-to-silicon ratio of 0.30±0.05. The bulk of this hydrogen seems to be present in H₂O-dominated minerals.  相似文献   

SWAS observations of water vapor in the Venus mesosphere     

Mark A. Gurwell  Gary J. Melnick  Edwin A. Bergin 《Icarus》2007,188(2):288-304

We present the first detections of the ground-state H₂¹⁶O (₁₁₀-₁₀₁) rotational transition (at 556.9 GHz) and the ¹³CO (5-4) rotational transition from the atmosphere of Venus, measured with the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite (SWAS). The observed spectral features of these submillimeter transitions originate primarily from the 70-100 km altitude range, within the Venus mesosphere. Observations were obtained in December 2002, and January, March, and July 2004, coarsely sampling one Venus diurnal period as seen from Earth. The measured water vapor absorption line depth shows large variability among the four observing periods, with strong detections of the line in December 2002 and July 2004, and no detections in January and March 2004. Retrieval of atmospheric parameters was performed using a multi-transition inversion algorithm, combining simultaneous retrievals of temperature, carbon monoxide, and water profiles under imposed constraints. Analysis of the SWAS spectra resulted in measurements or upper limits for the globally averaged mesospheric water vapor abundance for each of the four observation periods, finding variability over at least two orders of magnitude. The results are consistent with both temporal and diurnal variability, but with short-term fluctuations clearly dominating. These results are fully consistent with the long-term study of mesospheric water vapor from millimeter and submillimeter observations of HDO [Sandor, B.J., Clancy, R.T., 2005. Icarus 177, 129-143]. The December 2002 observations detected very rapid change in the mesospheric water abundance. Over five days, a deep water absorption feature consistent with a water vapor abundance of 4.5±1.5 parts per million suddenly gave way to a significantly shallower absorption, implying a decrease in the water vapor abundance by a factor of nearly 50 in less that 48 h. In 2004, similar changes in the water vapor abundance were measured between the March and July SWAS observing periods, but variability on time scales of less than a week was not detected. The mesospheric water vapor is expected to be in equilibrium with aerosol particles, primarily composed of concentrated sulfuric acid, in the upper haze layers of the Venus atmosphere. If true, moderate amplitude (10-15 K) variability in mesospheric temperature, previously noted in millimeter spectroscopy observations of Venus, can explain the rapid water vapor variability detected by SWAS.  相似文献   

Planetary migration to large radii     

R. G. Martin  S. H. Lubow  J. E. Pringle  M. C. Wyatt 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,378(4):1589-1600

There is evidence for the existence of massive planets at orbital radii of several hundred au from their parent stars where the time-scale for planet formation by core accretion is longer than the disc lifetime. These planets could have formed close to their star and then migrated outwards. We consider how the transfer of angular momentum by viscous disc interactions from a massive inner planet could cause significant outward migration of a smaller outer planet. We find that it is in principle possible for planets to migrate to large radii. We note, however, a number of effects which may render the process somewhat problematic.  相似文献   

Hydrogen adsorption and diffusion on amorphous solid water ice     

A. Al-Halabi  E. F. van Dishoeck † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,382(4):1648-1656

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The H i content of elliptical and lenticular galaxies withrecent star formation     

J. F. Helmboldt 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,379(3):1227-1236

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Constraints on unstable heavy neutrinos from cosmology     

M. M. Vasanthi  T. Padmanabhan 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1986,7(2):59-70

Cosmological scenarios with massive unstable neutrinos are discussed. Restrictions on the mass and the lifetime of the unstable neutrino are derived from (a) age and mass density of the universe and (b) the growth of primordial fluctuations. It will not be possible to accommodate unstable neutrinos with masses above ∼ 1 ke V in standard cosmology unless they have exceedingly small lifetime: Τ <5 × 10⁸ s.  相似文献   

Additional effects of resonance in Hilda-asteroid orbits by the combined action of Jupiter and Saturn     

J. Schubart 《Icarus》2007,188(1):189-194

Inside the 3/2 mean motion resonance some Hilda-type orbits show effects of a three-body resonance that includes the frequency of the libration due to the 3/2 resonance. A graphical method presents numerical results for such orbits and demonstrates in 6 cases a process of temporary libration, that is ruled by the additional resonance together with the secular period of the eccentricities of Jupiter and Saturn.  相似文献