2000年后中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水减少及水汽输送特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李湘瑞  范可  徐志清 《大气科学》2019,43(5):1109-1124

本文研究了1961～2016年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率的年代际变化特征,并进一步分析了该地区极端降水和普通降水的大气环流和水汽输送的差异。主要的研究结果表明:1961～2016年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率在2000年前后发生显著年代际变化,2000年后夏季极端降水天数和极端降水贡献率显著减少。与1984～1999年相比,2000～2016年在对流层高层从欧洲大陆、中亚到东北—蒙古地区,位势高度异常呈现出“正—负—正”的大气波列,从而造成北方东部地区上空为正压的位势高度正异常控制,伴随着下沉运动,大气层结趋于稳定,这些环流条件不利于极端降水发生。2000年后负位相的太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）和正位相的北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）共同加强了北方东部地区上空的正位势高度异常。进一步研究表明,极端降水与普通降水的水汽输送和收支以及关键的局地大气系统存在着显著差异,较普通降水而言,极端降水在南北向水汽输送和收支上更强;北方东部地区低空为较强的闭合低压控制,并不断受到高层高位涡空气下传的影响。  相似文献   

Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jianping HUANG  Jieru MA  Xiaodan GUAN  Yue LI  Yongli HE 《大气科学进展》2019,36(9):922-937

This article reviews recent progress in semi-arid climate change research in China.Results indicate that the areas of semiarid regions have increased rapidly during recent years in China,with an increase of 33%during 1994-2008 compared to 1948-62.Studies have found that the expansion rate of semi-arid areas over China is nearly 10 times higher than that of arid and sub-humid areas,and is mainly transformed from sub-humid/humid regions.Meanwhile,the greatest warming during the past 100 years has been observed over semi-arid regions in China,and mainly induced by radiatively forced processes.The intensity of the regional temperature response over semi-arid regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities.The decadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is modulated by oceanic oscillations,which induce land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts and affect the intensities of westerlies,planetary waves and blocking frequencies.In addition,the drier climates in semi-arid regions across China are also associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon in recent years.Moreover,dust aerosols in semi-arid regions may have altered precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.Finally,semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand in the 21st century,which will increase the risk of desertification in the near future.  相似文献   

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m):A Comparison with ECMWF     

Jian RAO  Rongcai REN  Haishan CHEN  Xiangwen LIU  Yueyue YU  Yang YANG 《大气科学进展》2019,36(5):479-494

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.  相似文献   

全球变暖加剧对极端气候概率影响的初步探讨   总被引：20，自引：9，他引：11  

刘吉峰  丁裕国  江志红 《高原气象》2007,26(4):837-842

依据实际资料,探讨了全球平均温度场演变序列的变率及其概率分布的变化规律,结果表明,仅仅随着平均温度的增加,其相应的时空概率分布变化已相当显著,何况在某些局部地区,其方差或其形状参数也有变动,因而形成极端气候事件频率增大的现象。  相似文献   

协调大集合模拟下全球海表面温度对北极对流层早冬增暖的影响          下载免费PDF全文

Lutao Wang  Yongqi Gao  Dong Guo  Tao Wang  Ying Zhang  Wei Hua 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(1):57-62

本文使用六个不同的最新大气模式进行了协调数值集合实验,评估和量化了全球海表面温度(SST)对1982-2014年冬季早期北极变暖的影响.本研究设计了两组实验:在第一组(EXP1)中,将OISSTv2逐日变化的海冰密集度和SST数据作为下边界强迫场;在第二组(EXP2)中,将逐日变化的SST数据替换为逐日气候态.结果表明...  相似文献   

中国北方磷矿矿床类型及成矿规律   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

熊先孝  李博昀  姚超美  东野脉兴  吴颖慧  伍光峰 《化工矿产地质》2007,29(3):159-168

通过对中国北方内生磷灰石、变质及沉积型磷矿成矿特征及典型矿床的研究,建立了各种类型磷矿床的成矿模式和找矿模型、确定了各类型矿床的时空分布规律以及矿床的共生规律,为开展磷矿的找矿工作具有重要参考价值。  相似文献   

Coralligenous habitat in the northern Adriatic Sea: an overview     

Sandra Casellato  Antonio Stefanon 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(3):321-341

The rocky outcrops irregularly scattered in the sandy‐muddy sea bed of the Northern Adriatic, formed by a base rock and a superimposed concretion of vegetal and animal organisms, are considered an infralittoral coralligenous habitat, according to the most recent definition. In the last four decades, research has mainly concentrated on their geology because of the question of the origin of the base rock – very similar to beachrock – which has only recently been attributed to sedimentary cementation induced by methane seeps. Studies on their macrobenthic assemblages have also been published recently, but true comparisons among them are difficult because they mostly refer only to a few selected phyla or to short‐term observations. Very few papers deal with the whole of the animal and plant communities, including all taxonomic groups and the most important environmental variables. On the basis of the literature data concerning several outcrops in the Gulf of Venice, we suggest that the Adriatic reefs differ slightly from the classic deeper coralligenous assemblages around the Mediterranean coast because they have smaller concretions of algae builders. We also suggest that the Northern Adriatic coralligenous reefs are younger than the other reefs occurring in the Mediterranean Sea.  相似文献   

Structure and photosynthetic properties of phytoplankton assemblages in a highly dynamic system, the Northern Adriatic Sea     

O. Mangoni  M. Modigh  P. Mozeti   A. Bergamasco  P. Rivaro  V. Saggiomo 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,77(4):633-644

The photosynthetic properties of phytoplankton populations as related to physical–chemical variations on small temporal and spatial scales and to phytoplankton size structure and pigment spectra were investigated in the Northern Adriatic Sea off the Po River delta in late winter 1997. Large diatoms (fucoxanthin) dominated the phytoplankton in the coastal area whereas small phytoflagellates (mainly 19′-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin, chlorophyll b, 19′-butanoyloxyfucoxanthin) occurred outside the front. The front was defined by the steep gradient in density in the surface layer separating low-salinity coastal waters from the offshore waters.Physical features of the area strongly influenced phytoplankton biomass distributions, composition and size structure. After high volumes of Po River discharge several gyres and meanders occurred in the area off the river delta in February. Decreasing river discharge and the subsequent disappearance of the gyres and the spreading dilution of the river plume was observed in March. The dynamic circulation of February resulted in high photosynthetic capacity of the abundant phytoplankton population (>3.40 mg m⁻³). In March, the slow circulation and an upper low-salinity water layer, segregated from the deeper layers, resulted in lack of renewal of this water mass. The huge phytoplankton biomass, up to 15.77 mg chl a m⁻³, became nutrient depleted and showed low photosynthetic capacity. In February, an exceptionally high P_max^B, 20.11 mg C (mg chl a)⁻¹ h⁻¹ was recorded in the Po River plume area and average P_max^B was three-fold in February as compared to the March recordings, 10.50 mg C (mg chl a)⁻¹ h⁻¹ and 3.22 mg C (mg chl a)⁻¹ h⁻¹, respectively.The extreme variability and values of phytoplankton biomass in the innermost plume area was not always reflected in primary production. Modeling of circulation patterns and water mass resilience in the area will help to predict phytoplankton response and biomass distributions. In the frontal area, despite a considerable variability in environmental conditions, our findings have shown that the phytoplankton assemblages will compensate for nutrient depression and hydrographic constraints, by means of size and taxonomic composition and, as a result, the variability in the photosynthetic capacity was much less pronounced than that observed for other parameters.  相似文献   

Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts,recovery trends and future outlook   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Andrew C. Baker  Peter W. Glynn  Bernhard Riegl 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated; (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state; (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity according to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term.  相似文献   

Review of recent findings on the water masses and circulation in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kuh Kim  Kyung-Il Chang  Dong-Jin Kang  Young Ho Kim  Jae-Hak Lee 《Journal of Oceanography》2008,64(5):721-735

Recent findings on water masses, biogeochemical tracers, deep currents and basin-scale circulation in the East/Japan Sea, and numerical modeling of its circulation are reviewed. Warming continues up to 2007 despite an episode of bottom water formation in the winter of 2000–2001. Water masses have definitely changed since the 1970s and further changes are expected due to the continuation of warming. Accumulation of current data in deep waters of the East/Japan Sea reveals that the circulation in the East/Japan Sea is primarily cyclonic with sub-basin scale cyclonic and anticyclonic cells in the Ulleung Basin (Tsushima Basin). Our understanding of the circulation of intermediate water masses has been deepened through high-resolution numerical studies, and the implementation of data assimilation has had initial success. However, the East/Japan Sea is unique in terms of the fine vertical structures of physical and biogeochemical properties of cold water mass measured at the highest precision and their rapid change with the global warming, so that full understanding of the structures and their change requires in-depth process studies with continuous monitoring programs.  相似文献