The thermal regime of the Northeastern-German Basin from 2-D inversion   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hans-Dieter Vosteen  Volker Rath  Andreas Schmidt-Mumm  Christoph Clauser   《Tectonophysics》2004,386(1-2):81-95

The thermal regime and the distribution of heat flow at the base of sedimentary basins is fundamental to the understanding of the process of basin evolution and the associated mobilization and migration of hydrocarbon and other fluids. For the Northeastern-German sedimentary basin, available information on structure, temperature, and thermal properties along a seismic DEKORP reflection profile allow high resolution 2-D forward and inverse simulations. This approach is attractive in situations where much information is available, if only with considerable uncertainty. In particular, this allows to introduce “soft” information into the analysis. In our case, forward simulations yield initial a priori estimates of the parameters while inversion calculations yield a posteriori estimates of the parameters and their uncertainty. The a priori parameters as well as their assumed uncertainty are input for a Bayesian parameter estimation scheme. In respect to the Northeastern-German sedimentary basin, the inverse analysis postulates a significant and characteristic a posteriori variation of thermal conductivity of the Zechstein unit along the entire profile as well as a generally large a posteriori thermal conductivity of the (pre-Permian) basement in the northern part of the basin. For inverse calculations, we used two alternative scenarios: One assumes the thermal conductivity of the Zechstein unit to be homogeneous along the profile while the other allows a lateral variation. A posteriori heat flow across the base of the model varies from 40 to 60 and 50 to 65 mW m⁻² for models in which values for thermal conductivity and radiogenic heat generation rate were either based on literature values or direct measurements, respectively.  相似文献   

Uncertainty Estimate in Resources Assessment: A Geostatistical Contribution   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

de Souza  Luis Eduardo  Costa  João Felipe C. L.  Koppe  Jair C. 《Natural Resources Research》2004,13(1):1-15

For many decades the mining industry regarded resources/reserves estimation and classification as a mere calculation requiring basic mathematical and geological knowledge. Most methods were based on geometrical procedures and spatial data distribution. Therefore, uncertainty associated with tonnages and grades either were ignored or mishandled, although various mining codes require a measure of confidence in the values reported. Traditional methods fail in reporting the level of confidence in the quantities and grades. Conversely, kriging is known to provide the best estimate and its associated variance. Among kriging methods, Ordinary Kriging (OK) probably is the most widely used one for mineral resource/reserve estimation, mainly because of its robustness and its facility in uncertainty assessment by using the kriging variance. It also is known that OK variance is unable to recognize local data variability, an important issue when heterogeneous mineral deposits with higher and poorer grade zones are being evaluated. Altenatively, stochastic simulation are used to build local or global uncertainty about a geological attribute respecting its statistical moments. This study investigates methods capable of incorporating uncertainty to the estimates of resources and reserves via OK and sequential gaussian and sequential indicator simulation The results showed that for the type of mineralization studied all methods classified the tonnages similarly. The methods are illustrated using an exploration drill hole data sets from a large Brazilian coal deposit.  相似文献   

Including prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J Mertens  H Madsen  D Jacques 《Journal of Hydrology》2004,294(4):251-269

In this paper we propose a methodology to include prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters for modelling the soil moisture content in the unsaturated zone. Laboratory measurements on undisturbed soil cores were used to estimate the moisture retention curve and hydraulic conductivity curve parameters. The soil moisture content was measured at 25 locations along three transects and at three different depths (surface, 30 and 60 cm) on an 80×20 m hillslope for the year 2001. Soil cores were collected in 84 locations situated in three profile pits along the hillslope. For the estimation of the effective soil hydraulic parameters the joint probability distribution of measured parameter values was used as prior information. A two-horizon single column 1D MIKE SHE model based on Richards' equation was set-up for nine soil moisture measurement locations along the middle transect of the hillslope. The goal of the model is to simulate the soil moisture profile at each location. The shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm has been applied to estimate effective model parameters using either wide parameter ranges, referred to as the ‘no-prior’ case, or the joint probability distribution of measured parameter values as prior information (‘prior’ case). When the prior information is incorporated in the SCE optimisation the goodness-of-fit of the model predictions is only slightly worse compared to when no-prior information is incorporated. However, the effective parameter estimates are more realistic when the prior information is incorporated. For both the no-prior and prior case the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure (GLUE) was subsequently used to estimate the uncertainty bounds (UB) on the model predictions. When incorporating the prior information more parameter sets were accepted for the estimation of the predictive uncertainty and the parameter values were more realistic. Moreover, UB better enclosed the observations. Thus, incorporating prior information in GLUE reduces the amount of model evaluations needed to obtain sufficient behavioural parameter sets. The results indicate the importance of prior information in the SCE and GLUE parameter estimation strategies.  相似文献   

Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes     

王丽凤  马丽  陈时军 《地震学报(英文版)》2004,17(2):177-189

Introduction According to many published papers, seismicity in time-space domain shows some characteristics, such as doughnut epicenter distribution (Mogi, 1969) or quiescence of seismic activity before large earthquakes (WANG, et al, 2002), and aftershock decay (Ogata, 1998). In recent years, more and more seismologists (Lynnr, Steven, 1990) have found that many strong earthquakes are preceded by enhancing regional seismicity and accelerating strain energy release (ZHANG, et al, 2001). T…  相似文献   

基于变异函数模型的单裂隙张开度的随机模拟     

吴蓉  周志芳 《水文》2004,24(3):1-3,45

借助变异函数的优点，即能够反映区域化变量张开度的空间变化相关性和随机性特征,利用Kriging方法对单裂隙中张开度进行估值，由交叉验证法的拟合结果认为估值结果较为合理，并且通过溶质运移试验验证了Kriging法对单裂隙张开度的估值是可行的。  相似文献   

流域水资源承载能力综合评价的多目标决策-理想区间模型   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

郦建强陆桂华  杨晓华杨志峰 张继昌 《水文》2004,24(4):1-4,25

水资源承载能力评价，是一个由多目标组成的复杂巨系统，其难点是如何合理地建立评价该系统的数学模型。由于评价标准是区间概念而非点的概念，因而传统的多目标决策一理想点法把评价标准处理成理想点存在一定缺陷。为了克服这种缺陷，对多目标决策理想点法进行了改进，提出了一种新的评价模型——多目标决策一理想区间模型(MODMIIM)，介绍了MODMIIM的原理，给出了其构成方法，并用MODMIIM对淮河流域的水资源承载能力进行了综合评价，结论为淮河流域的水资源承载能力总体上较弱。MODMIIM可操作性强，计算结果稳定、合理。与多目标决策一理想点法相比，MODMIIM具有更大的适用性。MODMIIM可广泛应用于各种水资源综合评价问题中。  相似文献   

山西墨镫-左权铁路南段地质灾害危险性模糊综合预测评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

汪玉松  朱才宝  周爱国  李亚伟 《陕西地质》2004,22(2):84-88

新建铁路工程用地地质灾害危险性评估的特点往往是地质灾害的种类多，影响因素复杂，常规方法不易客观定量的体现各区段在危险性方面的差异。本文在介绍模糊综合评价法基础上，结合实例探讨了模糊综合评价法在新建铁路工程用地地质灾害危险性评价中的应用。  相似文献   

瞬态面波预测单桩承载力模型研究     

武炜  张献民  杨进  曹金凤 《物探与化探》2004,28(1):88-91

总结了现有单桩竖向承载力检测技术存在的一些问题,结合实例提出了一种预测单桩承载力的间接方法———瞬态面波法。剪切波速与标贯击数之间也存在着相关关系,通过标贯击数建立起剪切波速与桩侧摩阻力及桩端阻力的相关模型,应用瞬态面波测试技术可快速检测桩周土剪切波速,确定单桩承载力。  相似文献   

An Idealized Mean Wind Profile for the Atmospheric Boundary Layer     

John D. Wilson  Thomas K. Flesch 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,110(2):281-299

We test a flexible, idealized mean wind profile for the loweratmosphere that can easily be matched to whatever windobservations may be available. Its intended function is to providea `best guess' wind profile from limited observations, e.g., foruse in dispersion models, and to this end, following earlierauthors, we have matched a Monin–Obukhov layer to a baroclinic Ekman layer.To demonstrate the flexibility of the two-layer wind profile, weoptimize its free parameters to provide best interpolative fits toa sample of multi-level wind profiles. These include model windprofiles extracted from the Canadian Global EnvironmentalMulti-scale weather model (GEM), as well as experimental profilesfrom the Wangara experiment, and from an over-ocean dispersionexperiment (LROD). In most cases the two-layer profile fit issatisfactory.  相似文献   

Nocturnal Surface-Layer Characteristics at the Bottom of a Valley     

O. L. L. Moraes  O. C. Acevedo  R. Da Silva  R. Magnago  A. C. Siqueira 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,112(1):159-177

Nighttime data collected at the bottom of a valley locatedin southern Brazil are studied. The analyzed quantities includemomentum and sensible heat fluxes, turbulence statistics andintermittency factors, and their relationship to the stability parameter.The proper interval for averaging and flux calculations is foundto be 20 min, based on the comparison of the fluxes and therandom error associated in their determination. Each data seriesis classified as calm or windy, according to the mean windspeed. A much better dependency of the variables in terms of thestability parameter is found under windy conditions. Analysis ofthe wind direction and topographic scales indicates that distortioneffects under calm conditions affect the flow, while the flow is inlocal equilibrium for windy conditions. In this case, the sensible heatflux shows a minimum for a value of z/L=0.08, while the momentumflux and the normalized scales of the wind components andtemperature decrease monotonically as the stability increases. Anintermittency factor is proposed and shown to be larger (moreintermittency) for more stable conditions.  相似文献