2006年夏季福建近海台风风暴潮特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

许金电  郭小钢  黄奖 《台湾海峡》2011,30(4):473-482

根据2006年夏季福建沿岸4个海洋观测站和福建近海5个潜标水位观测站的水位观测资料,分析了在4个热带气旋影响下的福建近海风暴潮特征．结果表明：福建沿岸海域的台风风暴潮大小不完全取决于台风强弱,与大风半径关系密切．若台风大风区覆盖整个台湾海峡,福建沿岸海域增水都较大,比如0604号强热带风暴“碧利斯”的大风区较大,由其引起厦门海洋观测站的最大增水高度达114em．0608号超强台风“桑美”和0609号强热带风暴“宝霞”双台风的大风区都比较小,由其引起的各测站增水相对也较小,增水高度最大的厦门海洋观测站只有52em．比较福建近海潜标水位观测站及其附近的海洋观测站采用11点（11h）滑动平均后的最大增水可知,福建近海潜标观测站台风增水高度（22～46cm）比沿岸海洋观测站的台风增水高度（62—73em）小40％左右．这表明台风增水有个向岸堆积的过程,即测站离岸越远,台风增水高度就越小．位于热带气旋（0605号台风“格关”）行进路径右侧的测站增水较大（平潭海洋观测站极值增水高度为49em,崇武海洋观测站极值增水高度为55em）,位于热带风暴行进路径左侧的测站增水较小（东山海洋观测站极值增水高度为45cm）．通过对0604号强热带风暴“碧利斯”引起的各测站增水滤除高频振荡后,福建沿岸海洋观测站最大增水高度从大到小依次为崇武站（74orfl）、平潭站（73em）、厦门站（68om）、东山站（62cm）,可见距离热带风暴中心越近（距离热带风暴中心从近到远依次为平潭、崇武、厦门、东山海洋观测站）,增水高度越大,反之,增水高度越小．台湾海峡地形和福建沿岸海域地形容易出现双（多）增水峰现象．通过对各测站台风增水时间序列进行最大熵谱分析可知,热带气旋容易引起福建沿岸和近海各测站台风增水出现周期为12．0h的振荡．  相似文献   

短期暴雨的前期特征和预报实践   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

姜海泉 《广东气象》2001,(2):1-4

打破季节和月份的限制，将所有的暴雨作为研究对象，运用自组织理论总结归纳出一套自成体系的统一的关于短期暴雨预报的前期环流特征和判据。在预报业务上，作者成功地建立三个精确到点的高质量的短期暴雨预报方法。  相似文献   

基于SCI-E的2010—2014年美国海洋学研究热点分析          下载免费PDF全文

刘艳华华薇娜  常李艳 《极地研究》2017,29(1):172-181

基于科学引文索引数据库SCI-E, 检索获得2010—2014年美国海洋学研究型文献9 702篇, 在确定文献集中词频不低于40的54个高频关键词基础上, 运用共词分析法, 以SPSS 20.0为工具, 探索美国近5年海洋学研究热点。结果表明, 2010—2014年间美国海洋学研究热点集中在6大主题领域: 海洋环流动力学研究、海洋灾害研究、科学技术和方法在海洋中的应用研究、海洋初级生产力研究、海洋污染研究、海洋生物多样性研究。在此基础上, 运用社会网络分析法, 借助可视化工具Ucinet, 对6大研究主题和高频作者共现矩阵进行可视化, 揭示出各研究主题的作者团体。  相似文献   

Towards an operational system for oil-spill forecast over Spanish waters: initial developments and implementation test     

Sotillo MG  Fanjul EA  Castanedo S  Abascal AJ  Menendez J  Emelianov M  Olivella R  García-Ladona E  Ruiz-Villarreal M  Conde J  Gómez M  Conde P  Gutierrez AD  Medina R 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(4):686-703

The ESEOO Project, launched after the Prestige crisis, has boosted operational oceanography capacities in Spain, creating new operational oceanographic services and increasing synergies between these new operational tools and already existing systems. In consequence, the present preparedness to face an oil-spill crisis is enhanced, significantly improving the operational response regarding ocean, meteorological and oil-spill monitoring and forecasting. A key aspect of this progress has been the agreement between the scientific community and the Spanish Search and Rescue Institution (SASEMAR), significantly favoured within the ESEOO framework. Important achievements of this collaboration are: (1) the design of protocols that at the crisis time provide operational state-of-the-art information, derived from both forecasting and observing systems; (2) the establishment, in case of oil-spill crisis, of a new specialized unit, named USyP, to monitor and forecast the marine oceanographic situation, providing the required met-ocean and oil-spill information for the crisis managers. The oil-spill crisis scenario simulated during the international search and rescue Exercise "Gijón-2006", organized by SASEMAR, represented an excellent opportunity to test the capabilities and the effectiveness of this USyP unit, as well as the protocols established to analyze and transfer information. The results presented in this work illustrate the effectiveness of the operational approach, and constitute an encouraging and improved base to face oil-spill crisis.  相似文献   

Comparison of hypoxia among four river-dominated ocean margins: The Changjiang (Yangtze), Mississippi,Pearl, and Rhône rivers     

C. Rabouille  D.J. Conley  M.H. Dai  W.-J. Cai  C.T.A. Chen  B. Lansard  R. Green  K. Yin  P.J. Harrison  M. Dagg  B. McKee 《Continental Shelf Research》2008

We examined the occurrence of seasonal hypoxia (O₂<2 mg l⁻¹) in the bottom waters of four river-dominated ocean margins (off the Changjiang, Mississippi, Pearl and Rhône Rivers) and compared the processes leading to the depletion of oxygen. Consumption of oxygen in bottom waters is linked to biological oxygen demand fueled by organic matter from primary production in the nutrient-rich river plume and perhaps terrigenous inputs. Hypoxia occurs when this consumption exceeds replenishment by diffusion, turbulent mixing or lateral advection of oxygenated water. The margins off the Mississippi and Changjiang are affected the most by summer hypoxia, while the margins off the Rhône and the Pearl rivers systems are less affected, although nutrient concentrations in the river water are very similar in the four systems. Spring and summer primary production is high overall for the shelves adjacent to the Mississippi, Changjiang and Pearl (1–10 g C m⁻² d⁻¹), and lower off the Rhône River (<1 g C m⁻² d⁻¹), which could be one of the reasons of the absence of hypoxia on the Rhône shelf. The residence time of the bottom water is also related to the occurrence of hypoxia, with the Mississippi margin showing a long residence time and frequent occurrences of hypoxia during summer over very large spatial scales, whereas the East China Sea (ECS)/Changjiang displays hypoxia less regularly due to a shorter residence time of the bottom water. Physical stratification plays an important role with both the Changjiang and Mississippi shelf showing strong thermohaline stratification during summer over extended periods of time, whereas summer stratification is less prominent for the Pearl and Rhône partly due to the wind effect on mixing. The shape of the shelf is the last important factor since hypoxia occurs at intermediate depths (between 5 and 50 m) on broad shelves (Gulf of Mexico and ECS). Shallow estuaries with low residence time such as the Pearl River estuary during the summer wet season when mixing and flushing are dominant features, or deeper shelves, such as the Gulf of Lion off the Rhône show little or no hypoxia.  相似文献   

A naive uncertainty model for measuring operational risks faced by financial institutions     

Yundong Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):507-516

When insufficient data are available for measuring operational risk faced by a financial institute, most of the models depending on the probability theory are failure. Differing from that we use a probability distribution to depict random uncertainty, in this paper we use a number to represent the naive uncertainty in a phase serving for operational risk identification. The simplest form of the naive uncertainty model for measuring operational risk with multiple phases is the weighted mean with the uncertainties. It is also valid when we have a rough judgment for the uncertainties with intervals or fuzzy values. In this paper, we give a calculation case in lending operational risk to demonstrate the model validity.  相似文献   

辽宁省热带气旋模式预报业务系统   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

杨阳  陈力强  周晓珊  杨森 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(5):24-27

介绍了在MM5模式基础上建立起来的辽宁省热带气旋模式预报业务系统及2005年的预报情况。系统以T213L31产品为背景场和侧边界,初始场中同化了常规探空报、地面报及一些卫星反演资料,模式的初值中还嵌入人造热带气旋进行模式运算。系统每日自动运行2次;模式输出结果经后处理后,编写到通用绘图软件GrADs中,以图形显示,并在沈阳区域气象中心局域网的中尺度数值预报网页上显示。2005年汛期热带气旋预报表明,系统对热带气旋的路径和暴雨的预报效果较好。  相似文献   

MM5在上海区域气象中心数值预报中的改进和应用   总被引：16，自引：1，他引：15       下载免费PDF全文

顾建峰  殷鹤宝 《应用气象学报》2000,11(2):189-198

以国家气象中心数值预报产品为依托, 根据上海区域气象中心计算机资源配置情况, 用NCAR-PSU/MM5V2作为动力框架, 确定了侧边界嵌套方案、积云参数化方案和边界层参数化方案, 研制了资料分析同化方法和预报结果后处理方法及产品显示软件, 建立了上海区域气象中心第五代数值预报业务系统, 可提供华东地区138个城市每3 h一次的地面要素预报.半年多准业务运行表明, 预报效果较好, 对区域内气象台站的业务预报有良好的参考价值.  相似文献   

BOOK REVIEWS     

《The Professional geographer》1985,37(1):104-132

Books Reviewed in this article: Lob Trees in the Wilderness . Clifford and Isabel Ahlgren . Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing . T. D. Allan , ed. Sunbelt Cities: Politics and Growth Since World War II . Richard M. Bernard and Bradley R. Rice , eds. Legacy of Minneapolis: Preservation Amid Change . John R. Borchert , David Gebhard , David Lanegran , and Judith A. Martin . Bloomington, MN: Preparing a Historic Preservation Ordinance. Richard J. Roddewig . The Mountains of Northeastern Tasmania, A Study of Alpine Geomorphology . Nel Caine . Introductory Cartography . John Campbell . Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Changing Climate . Manual of Remote Sensing, Second Edition . 2 Vols. Robert N. Colwell , ed.-in-chief; David S. Simonett and John E. Estes , vol. eds. Remote Sensing in Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology . A. P. Cracknell , ed. Multidimensional Scaling . Mark L. Davison . Environmental Karst . Percy H. Dougherty , ed. The Urban Environment . Ian Douglas . Geomorphology of Europe . Clifford Embleton , ed. An Introduction to South Asia . B. H. Farmer . Great Geological Controversies . A. Hallam . Hazardous Waste Management: In Whose Backyard? Michalann Harthill , ed. Energy for Subsistence . Margaret Haswell . Perspective on Ratzel's Political Geography . James M. Hunter . Economic Deposits and their Tectonic Setting . Charles S. Hutchison . Energy Risk Assessment . Herbert Inhaber . Discovering the Vernacular Landscape . John Brinckerhoff Jackson . Climate and Energy Systems: A Review of Their Interactions . Jill Jäger . Dilemmas in Regional Policy . Antoni Kuklinski and J. G. Lambooy , eds. California Farmland: A History of Large Agricultural Landholdings . Ellen Liebman . The Spatial Organization of New Land Settlement in Latin America . Jacob O. Maos . Dark Continent: Africa as Seen by Americans . Michael McCarthy . Westport, CT: Climatology: An Introduction . John E. Oliver and John J. Hidore . Columbus, OH: The Geography of Warfare . Patrick O'Sullivan and Jesse W. Miller . The Expanding City. Essays in Honour of Professor Jean Gottmann . John Patten , ed. Scotland's Environment During the Last 30,000 Years . Robert J. Price . Integrated Urban Models . S. H. Putman . Development and the Environmental Crisis: Red or Green Alternatives? Michael Redclift .  相似文献   

The Ocean Circulation of Chatham Sound,British Columbia,Canada: Results From Numerical Modelling Studies Using Historical Datasets     

Yuehua Lin  David B. Fissel 《大气与海洋》2018,56(3):129-151

Chatham Sound, a semi-enclosed inland sea located off northern British Columbia, is an important waterway due to many proposed industrial activities related to the Port of Prince Rupert, along with its high levels of marine productivity. The oceanographic forcing in Chatham Sound is complex due to a combination of large tides, seasonally strong winds, and large freshwater discharges. Although much oceanographic data have been collected over the past six decades, past studies of the oceanographic regime of the full Chatham Sound area have been very limited. Using these extensive forcing datasets, high-resolution three-dimensional numerical modelling using the Coastal Circulation model for Sediment transport was conducted to investigate the tidal and wind-driven currents in the stratified waters of Chatham Sound. The numerical study shows the progression of the river-dominated lower salinity near-surface waters being advected northward, especially on the eastern side of Chatham Sound, with more saline waters on the western side of the Sound, especially in areas of exchanges with the waters of Hecate Strait through side channels. These surface circulation results are in good agreement with the large-scale representation of the outer diffuse Skeena River plume as seen in high-resolution Landsat satellite imagery. The model was operated over a representative year with four seasonal model runs. Southern Chatham Sound was found to be dominated by large tidal currents. Seasonal variations of residual flow were also investigated. Significant correlation between non-tidal current speeds and Skeena River discharges was found in the Skeena River delta area and through narrow tidal channels in southern Chatham Sound. In other offshore areas, non-tidal currents were found to be constrained near the surface and driven mainly by winds.  相似文献