时间尺度重构EEMD-GRNN改进模型预测PM2.5的研究     

符海月  张祎婷 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(7):1132-1142

合理构建PM_2.5浓度预测模型是科学、准确地预测PM_2.5浓度变化的关键。传统PM_2.5预测EEMD-GRNN模型具有较好的预测精度,但是存在过于关注研究数据本身而忽略其物理意义的不足。本研究基于南京市2014-2017年PM_2.5浓度时间序列数据,分析PM_2.5浓度多尺度变化特征及其对气象因子和大气污染因子的尺度响应,基于时间尺度重构进行EEMD-GRNN模型的改进与实证研究。南京市样本数据PM_2.5浓度变化表现为明显的天际尺度和月际尺度,从重构尺度（天际、月际）构建GRNN模型更具有现实意义;同时,PM_2.5对PM₁₀、NO₂、O₃、RH、MinT等因子存在多尺度响应效应,以其作为GRNN模型中的输入变量更具有时间序列上的解释意义。改进后的EEMD-GRNN模型具有更高的PM_2.5浓度预测精度,MAE、MAPE、RMSE和R²分别为6.17、18.41%、8.32和0.95,而传统EEMD-GRNN模型的模型有效性检验结果分别为8.37、27.56%、11.56、0.91。对于高浓度天（PM_2.5浓度大于100 μg/m³）的预测,改进模型更是全面优于传统EEMD-GRNN模型,MAPE为12.02%,相较于传统模型提高了9.03%。  相似文献   

Application of an ecosystem model for the environmental assessment of the reclamation and mitigation plans for seagrass beds in Atsumi Bay   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Akio Sohma  Yasuyuki Sekiguchi  Kisaburo Nakata 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

An ecosystem model was used to evaluate the effects of reclaiming seagrass beds and creating artificial shallows with seagrass beds to mitigate the effects of the reclamation. The applied model can simulate the pelagic and benthic ecosystems including seagrass beds and tidal flats. The objectives of this study were (a) to investigate the likelihood of cultivating and maintaining seagrass beds in artificial shallows (Part 1), and (b) to understand the effects of the reclamation of seagrass beds and the creation of artificial shallows on the water quality in the estuary (Part 2). In Part 1, first, the nutrient turnover rates due to both biochemical and physical processes in the natural seagrass beds where reclamation is proposed were analyzed. Biological processes rather than physical processes were the most significant driving forces of nutrient cycles in seagrass beds. Second, the effects of filter feeding benthic fauna (suspension feeders) in the seagrass beds were analyzed. The scenario with suspension feeders resulted in higher transparency of the water column (8.7% decrease in the light attenuation coefficient) and an increase in nutrient supply (24.9% increase in NH₄-N in the water column) contributing to the high specific growth rate of seagrass. Third, the specific growth rate of seagrass on the proposed artificial shallows was measured. The value on the artificial shallows set at a depth of datum line minus 0.8 m (D.L. − 0.8 m) was approximately the same as that of the natural seagrass beds. In Part 2, first, water quality in the estuary was compared among the scenarios with/without natural seagrass beds and artificial shallows. Then, the defined values of the water purification capability of (a) artificial shallows with/without seagrass beds, and (b) natural seagrass beds per unit area were evaluated. The reclamation of the natural seagrass beds resulted in a decrease of the removal of phytoplankton and detritus from the pelagic system (i.e. resulted in a loss in the purification rate). In contrast, the creation of artificial shallows resulted in an increase of the removal of phytoplankton and detritus from the pelagic system (i.e. resulted in a gain in the purification rate). Based on an annual average, approximately twice as much phytoplankton was removed from the artificial shallows at the depth D.L. − 0.8 m, than at the depth, D.L. − 1.5 m, and the artificial shallows with seagrass beds removed pelagic DIN and DIP at a rate 120% higher than that without seagrass beds.  相似文献   

2008年1次沙尘暴事件对厦门岛大气中SO2等污染物含量的影响     

汪建君  陈立奇  张远辉  杨绪林  孙霞  李伟  詹建琼  徐国杰 《台湾海峡》2010,29(3):297-303

2008年5月27～29日源自内蒙古南部的沙尘暴于5月30日到达厦门.受其影响,30日晚厦门风速最高达到12.6 m/s;31日本监测站大气中CO、NO2和NO含量明显下降,分别从551.3μg/m^3下降至218.9μg/m^3,从25.0μg/m^3下降至6.7μg/m^3,从8.1μg/m^3下降至0.1μg/m^3;6月1日其分别回升至682.4、28.7、6.5μg/m^3.与CO、NO2和NO不同,PM10和SO2含量在5月31日没有明显变化,PM10含量从5月31日晚的10.1μg/m^3上升至6月1日的232.6μg/m^3,SO2含量从5月底的25.0μg/m^3上升至52.0μg/m^3,并且两者的变化显示出较好的相关性（R2=0.65）.据此认为本次沙尘暴到达厦门时,在引起PM10含量增加的同时还引起了SO2含量的升高.这是沙尘暴引起中国南方城市SO2含量升高的首次报道.尽管目前SO2在中国的分布和传输已有较多研究,但对于沙尘暴在中国南方城市传输SO2的机制仍需进一步的探讨.  相似文献   

海洋气团对沿海城市大气环境影响与识别研究     

石红旗  王霄曈  张昊阳  石博欣  张睿 《海洋科学》2018,42(12):100-108

本研究通过识别海洋气团特征及沿海城市大气受到海洋气团的影响方式与程度,为评价沿海城市空气环境质量提供科学依据。以青岛市为例,收集大气气溶胶样品中放射性核素~(210)Pb、40K数据及采集时段当地大气颗粒物数据;分析~(210)Pb活度浓度与气溶胶颗粒物浓度变化;对当地当时大气气团进行溯源分析。研究表明:(1)研究期间青岛沿岸地区2015年4月至2016年6月与2016年6月至2017年6月大气污染特征显著不同,前者~(210)Pb活度浓度与污染颗粒物浓度显著相关,而后者~(210)Pb活度浓度与污染颗粒物无相关关系;(2)穿越海洋的陆地气团呈现出高活度浓度、低颗粒物浓度的特征;来自海洋气团的气溶胶呈现出低活度浓度、低颗粒物浓度的特征;(3)海洋气团气溶胶中~(210)Pb活度浓度较低。临近大陆的海洋(黄海、东海)上层大气受到大陆气团的影响,其海洋气团的特征有所减弱。~(210)Pb活度浓度、颗粒物浓度(PM2.5)可作为判断海洋气团的指标,识别"来自海洋的气团"与"经过海洋的气团"。  相似文献   

近55年来中国10大水文区域干旱化分析   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  

王志伟  翟盘茂  武永利 《高原气象》2007,26(4):874-880

根据1951—2005年我国629个气象观测站逐月降水资料,采用Z指数方法,对我国10大水文区的干旱变化特征进行了研究。研究表明,近55年来,海河流域、辽河流域、松花江流域、淮河流域和黄河流域干旱范围趋于扩大,其中松花江流域、淮河流域、海河流域扩大的趋势更明显,西北诸河流域的干旱范围明显缩小,而长江流域、珠江流域、西南诸河区以及东南诸河干旱范围没有明显的变化趋势,各流域都有明显的阶段变化特征。淮河流域、海河流域和辽河流域干旱范围变化的年际间振幅较大,西南诸河流域和长江流域的年际间振幅较小。松花江流域、辽河流域、海河流域和淮河流域20世纪90年代开始干旱范围扩大迅速,进入21世纪后又都有明显的下降趋势。从线性变化趋势、阶段变化特征分析,预计到21世纪初期海河流域、辽河流域、松花江流域、淮河流域、西北诸河流域和黄河流域干旱范围趋于缩小,降水可能增多,东南诸河和珠江流域干旱范围趋于扩大,降水可能减少,长江流域和西南诸河流域变化不明显。  相似文献   

2014－2022年新疆库尔勒市空气质量特征及沙尘天气影响分析     

张仕明  段秀蓉  仇会民  仲军梅 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2024,18(5)

基于2014－2022年库尔勒市空气质量监测数据,分析了库尔勒市空气质量水平和污染特征,并进一步探究了沙尘天气对空气质量的影响。结果表明：2014－2022年库尔勒市年均优良率为65.3%,春季空气污染最严重,夏季空气质量最好;大气污染主要是颗粒物超标,PM10年均浓度值超过二级标准限值127%,PM2.5超31%,SO2、NO2、CO、O3均达标;首要污染物为PM10,占总超标天数的92.2%,PM2.5为首要污染物占比8.0%;受沙尘影响天气年平均100.4d,污染日79.7%受到沙尘影响;按环境监测要求剔除沙尘天气,PM10和PM2.5平均浓度分别减少18.6%和13.0%;沙尘天气对AQI平均贡献率为31.8%,对PM10贡献率为41.9%,对PM2.5贡献率为23.3%。沙尘天气对库尔勒空气质量影响明显,大气污染防治根本是沙尘天气综合治理。沙尘天气对库尔勒市空气质量影响明显,大气污染防治根本是沙尘天气的综合治理。  相似文献   

Constraining Holocene 10Be production rates in Greenland     

Jason P. Briner  Nicolás E. Young  Brent M. Goehring  Joerg M. Schaefer 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):2-6

The absence of a production rate calibration experiment on Greenland has limited the ability to link ¹⁰Be exposure dating chronologies of ice‐margin change to independent records of rapid climate change. We use radiocarbon age control on Holocene glacial features near Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland, to investigate ¹⁰Be production rates. The radiocarbon chronology is inconsistent with the ¹⁰Be age calculations based on the current globally averaged ¹⁰Be production rate calibration data set, but is consistent with the ¹⁰Be production rate calibration data set from north‐eastern North America, which includes a calibration site nearby on north‐eastern Baffin Island. Based on the best‐dated feature available from the Jakobshavn Isbræ forefield, we derive a ¹⁰Be production rate value of 3.98 ± 0.24 atoms g a^?1, using the ‘St’ scaling scheme, which overlaps with recently published reference ¹⁰Be production rates. We suggest that these ¹⁰Be production rate data, or the very similar data from north‐eastern North America, are used on Greenland. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and their molecular diagnostic ratios in urban atmospheric respirable particulate matter   总被引：2，自引：5，他引：2  

María del Rosario Sienra  Nelson G. Rosazza  Margarita Prndez 《Atmospheric Research》2005,75(4):267-281

Atmospheric concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Santiago de Chile city were evaluated to study particulate PAHs profiles during cold and spring weather periods. Urban atmospheric particulate matter PM10 was collected using High Volume PM10 samplers. Fifteen samples of 24 h during austral winter and 20 samples of 24 h during spring, 2000 were collected at two sampling sites (North–East and Central areas of the city) whose characteristics were representative of the prevailing conditions. Seventeen PAHs were quantified and total PAHs concentration ranged from 1.39 to 59.98 ng m⁻³, with a seasonal variation (winter vs. spring ratio) from 0.5 to 12.6 ng m⁻³. Molecular diagnostic ratios were used to characterize and identify PAHs emission sources such as combustion and biogenic emissions. Results showed that the major sources of respirable organic aerosol PM10 in Santiago are mobile and stationary ones.  相似文献   

Paleoenvironment evolution of the East Philippine Sea recorded in the new-type ferromanganese crust since the terminal Late Miocene     

Xu ZhaoKai  Li AnChun  Jiang FuQing  Li TieGang  Meng QingYong  Jin Ning 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(8):1179-1188

From systemic research of microstructure, geochemistry, uranium-series and 10Be isotope dating on a new-type deepwater ferromanganese crust from the East Philippine Sea, the paleoenvironment evolu-tion of the target area since the terminal Late Miocene was recovered. The vertical section changes of microstructure and chemical composition are consistent in the studied crust, which indicate three major accretion periods and corresponding paleoenvironment evolution of the crust. The bottom crust zone was formed in the terminal Late Miocene (5.6 Ma) with loose microstructure, high detritus content and high growth rate. Reductions of mineral element content, accretion rate and positive Ce-anomaly degree at 4.6 Ma indicate temporal warming, which went against the crust accretion and finally formed an accretion gap in the terminal Middle Pliocene (2.8―2.7 Ma). The more active Antarctic bottom sea-waters in the Late Pliocene (2.7 Ma) facilitated the fast transfer to the top pure crust zone. Hereafter, with the further apart of volcanic source and the keeping increase of eolian material (1.0 Ma), although surrounding conditions were still favorable, mineral element content still shows an obvious reducing trend. It thereby offers new carrier and data for the unclear paleoceanographic research of the target area since the terminal Late Miocene.  相似文献   

Study of the erosion rates in the upper Maracujá Basin (Quadrilátero Ferrífero/MG,Brazil) by the in situ produced cosmogenic 10Be method     

André Salgado  César Varajão  Fabrice Colin  Régis Braucher  Angélica Varajão  Herminio Nalini Jr 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(6):905-911

The present work quantifies the erosive processes in the two main substrates (schists–phyllites and granites–gneisses) of the upper Maracujá Basin in the Quadrilátero Ferrífero/MG, Brazil, a region of semi‐humid tropical climate. Two measuring methods of concentration were used: (i) in situ produced ¹⁰Be in quartz veins (surface erosion rates) and (ii) ¹⁰Be in fluvial sediments (basin erosion rates). The results confirm that (i) erosion tends to be more aggressive close to the headwaters than in the lower parts of the basin and (ii) the region is now affected by dissection. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献