《巴黎协定》与特朗普政府的履约前景     

赵行姝 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(5):448-455

《巴黎协定》生效标志着全球气候治理进程从达约阶段转向履约阶段。但是,履约阶段并不意味着全球气候风险得到控制,反而面临新的挑战。本文从《巴黎协定》入手,分析了《巴黎协定》自身存在的不足,重点考察了美国的履约意愿,分析了特朗普政府退出《巴黎协定》及其影响,探讨了未来美国的气候立场。研究发现,《巴黎协定》在减排力度、气候资金及遵约条款三方面存在先天不足,导致《巴黎协定》有效性仍取决于缔约方的履约意愿和履约能力。当前美国国内政局演变导致美国联邦政府气候政策出现倒退,有可能对《巴黎协定》缔约方的履约意愿和履约能力产生不良影响。但是,这种不良影响仅仅是短暂的。美国在国际格局中的地位变化以及美国业已成形的低碳转型,共同决定了特朗普气候政策并不会从根本上动摇《巴黎协定》。长期来看,美国对全球领导力的诉求、国内应对气候变化的内在动力以及来自外部的道义压力这三大因素势将促使美国在未来重新回归《巴黎协定》。  相似文献   

美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响     

张永香  巢清尘  郑秋红  黄磊 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(5):407-414

自特朗普就任美国总统,美国退出《巴黎协定》已在意料中,但当特朗普正式宣布退出仍引发了国际社会的广泛关注。究其宣布退出的考虑不难看出,尽管美国政治信誉、国际合作和长远经济均受影响,但借此特朗普既可以提高其政治影响力、同时又可向国际社会重新要价。从国际应对气候变化的大形势看,美国的退出不会根本逆转全球气候治理的大方向。但美国削减国内气候变化研究、多边环境基金的资金支持和援助等政策将影响气候变化的基础研究和国际应对气候变化多边机制,以及未来应对气候变化的国际合作和长期目标的实现。《联合国气候变化框架公约》的"共同但有区别"的责任原则将受到冲击。就未来而言,全球应对气候变化的正向发展仍旧是主旋律,气候治理正进入多元主体发挥作用的时代,地方和民间组织层面将开展更多的技术创新务实合作,提高气候变化科学及认知的能力建设仍将是长期的任务。  相似文献   

1.5℃温控目标下地球工程问题剖析和应对政策建议     

陈迎  辛源 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(4):337-345

《巴黎协定》引入了全球应对气候变化的1.5℃温控目标,但是没有就其实现路径做出清晰安排。实现1.5℃目标对全球减排提出更高要求,各国自主贡献目标距离该目标有较大差距,常规减排技术和政策也很难完成任务。在此背景下,国际上有关地球工程的讨论日渐升温。《巴黎协定》实际上已经包含了人工造林,碳捕获与封存/碳捕获与利用技术（CCS/CCUS),生物质能利用加CCS（BECCS）等负排放技术,这些都是地球工程范畴的碳移除技术（CDR),除此之外,更具争议性的太阳辐射管理（SRM）技术也引起更多关注。地球工程作为非常规技术选项,在1.5℃目标下的影响评估、技术选择、伦理学和国际治理等一系列问题的研究和探讨都十分必要。本文在分析和探讨上述问题的基础上,就中国应重视和加强地球工程研究与应对提出一些政策建议,指出要将地球工程纳入中国应对气候变化战略大框架,围绕1.5℃目标加强地球工程科学研究,并积极参与地球工程国际治理,合理发出中国声音。  相似文献   

联合国气候变化框架公约下发展中国家的能力建设谈判回顾     

张永香  黄磊  袁佳双 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(3):292-298

增强发展中国家能力建设是全球应对气候变化的重要前提条件,而在联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC)的谈判进程中,能力建设部分一直进展缓慢。自缔约方第7次会(COP7)上确定了发展中国家能力建设框架后,能力建设的机制建设一直没有取得实质性进展。在巴黎气候变化大会(COP21)上,缔约方一致通过了《巴黎协定》。《巴黎协定》首次授权通过执行附属机构(SBI)建立巴黎能力建设委员会(PCCB)。该委员会将全面协调对发展中国家能力建设的支持,同时监管2016-2020年的能力建设工作计划,全面系统地促进和增强发展中国家应对气候变化的能力建设活动。另外,《巴黎协定》还同意建立透明度能力建设倡议(CBIT)用以增强2020年前后的机制和技术能力。随后,全球环境基金(GEF)为该倡议成立了CBIT信托基金。至此,公约下能力建设议题已经建立了相对完整的国际机制。未来议题的谈判将走向务实与细节。随着全球应对气候变化迈向一个新阶段,中国在能力建设议题的谈判上也应做相应的调整。  相似文献   

Harnessing the wind: A case study of applying Flettner rotor technology to achieve fuel and cost savings for Fiji's domestic shipping industry     

《Marine Policy》2017

For over 5000 years, humans have successfully harnessed the power of wind to transport people and goods across the world's oceans. This research expands on previous studies of the unique Flettner rotor propulsion system and the demonstrable success in reducing fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Recent examples such as Enercon's E-ship 1 have proven seaworthy and economically viable along major shipping routes. The remote Pacific island countries (PICS), however, have the unique characteristics of retaining a remarkable seafaring heritage while remaining on the periphery of global commerce. With data obtained from a field study of Fiji's domestic shipping, this research analyzes the potential for implementing Flettner rotor systems to achieve more economically viable alternatives to the current situation. The findings show that with an incremental approach and the addition of a government fuel savings incentive, the Government Shipping Franchise Scheme (GSFS) subsidies could be significantly lowered for Fiji's ten uneconomical shipping routes. Four scenarios of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 25% fuel savings contrast the baseline data on one extreme with a zero-emissions scenario on the other. The most likely fuel savings scenario of between 10% and 15% results in a 20-year government savings of between 348,042 and 522,063 U.S. dollars and a 20-year cumulative reduction in CO₂ emissions of between 2931 and 4396 t. The paper concludes that Flettner rotors show promising results in reducing fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions and recommends future studies in collaboration with the Fiji government to develop practical strategies of implementation.  相似文献   

The global scale,distribution and growth of aviation: Implications for climate change     

《Global Environmental Change》2020

Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, global air transport demand was expected to triple between 2020 and 2050. The pandemic, which reduced global air travel significantly, provides an opportunity to discuss the scale, distribution and growth of aviation until 2018, also with a view to consider the climate change implications of a return to volume growth. Industry statistics, data provided by supranational organizations, and national surveys are evaluated to develop a pre-pandemic understanding of air transport demand at global, regional, national and individual scales. Results suggest that the share of the world’s population travelling by air in 2018 was 11%, with at most 4% taking international flights. Data also supports that a minor share of air travelers is responsible for a large share of warming: The percentile of the most frequent fliers – at most 1% of the world population - likely accounts for more than half of the total emissions from passenger air travel. Individual users of private aircraft can contribute to emissions of up to 7,500 t CO₂ per year. Findings are specifically relevant with regard to the insight that a large share of global aviation emissions is not covered by policy agreements.  相似文献