基于SVM的气候持续法在热带气旋路径预报中的应用试验   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

吕庆平  罗坚  朱坤  任景鹏 《海洋预报》2009,26(1)

本文利用气候持续性因子,分别采用支持向量机法、神经网络法及最小二乘回归法建立西北太平洋地区12、24、36、48h热带气旋路径预报模型.通过1997～2002年的试报.支持向量机法明显优干回归方法和神经网络法,12h的预报水平分别提高了4.97%和2.75%,而且随着预报时效的延长,这种优势越来越明显,4Sh的预报水平提高了11.92%和7.88%.  相似文献   

“环高”热带风暴登陆后路径分析及其对辽宁暴雨影响   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

孙欣  陈传雷 《气象科学》2009,29(4):536-540

2003年第11号热带风暴"环高"在浙江省南部登陆后强度迅速减弱,但其残余云系及水汽仍然继续北上,为辽宁8月22-23日区域性暴雨提供了动力、热力、水汽及充分的能量.本文在分析热带气旋维持、北上条件的基础上,对此次暴雨的成因和物理量进行分析,指出北上热带气旋携带的暖湿空气为暴雨提供了热力条件;热带气旋北上使低空偏南急流加强并维持,为暴雨提供了必要的动力条件;热带气旋为这次暴雨过程提供了充足的能量;热带气旋是这次暴雨过程重要水汽来源.  相似文献   

台风“麦莎”移动路径及其内部热力结构的诊断分析     

陈丽英  赵蕾  李春銮  陈少凤  杜建华 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(3):8-11,122

利用NCEP再分析资料,采用带通滤波处理技术,对0509号台风“麦莎”的活动过程进行研究,将原始场进行尺度分离。分为大尺度场和次天气尺度场,在大尺度场中,分析对此次台风移动路径有直接影响的系统,重点说明“麦莎”路径发生第一次转折中有直接影响的系统,是副热带高压位置及其形状的变化;并利用台风系统内部热力结构特征分析表明：...  相似文献   

Numerical solution of the discontinuous-bottom Shallow-water Equations with hydrostatic pressure distribution at the step     

Luca Cozzolino  Renata Della Morte  Carmine Covelli  Giuseppe Del Giudice  Domenico Pianese 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(11):1413-1426

Free-surface flows are usually modelled by means of the Shallow-water Equations: this system of hyperbolic equations exhibits a source term which is proportional to the product of the water depth by the bed slope, and which takes into account the effect of gravity onto fluid mass. Recently, much attention has been paid to the case in which bottom discontinuities are present in the physical domain to be represented: in this case, it is difficult to define the non-conservative product in the distributional sense. Here, the discontinuous-bottom Shallow-water Equations with hydrostatic pressure distribution at the bed step (Bernetti et al., 2006) are discussed in the context of the theory of Dal Maso et al. (1995) [9]; finally, a first-order numerical scheme is presented, which is consistent for regular solutions, and which is able to capture contact discontinuities at bottom steps. Numerous tests are presented to show the feasibility of the scheme and its ability to converge to the exact solution in the cases of smooth as well as discontinuous bed profiles.  相似文献   

兰坪金满铜矿矿山淹井原因及处理措施     

闫鼎熠  郝勇 《云南地质》2011,30(4):476-478

通过对矿山充水水源、充水途径的分析,认为矿山淹井是因为导水断层,及采空区的塌陷破坏了隔水地层的完整性。提出矿坑充填及帷幕灌浆的处理措施,并取得了较好的处理效果。  相似文献   

基于FMM算法的我国寒潮路径分类及气候特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

黄丹  耿焕同  谢佩妍  李俊徽 《气象科学》2018,38(6):759-767

利用1965—2015年冬半年寒潮过程数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过FMM算法聚类分析,将影响我国寒潮路径确定为4类,并统计分析了不同类型路径寒潮的活动变化趋势以及环流特征。研究结果表明:各类路径寒潮的频数、强度、季节分布和年际变化存在显著差异,第一类西路转向型寒潮频数最多且逐年减少趋势最大,第三类西北型寒潮强度最大,第四类西路型寒潮在春季频发且变化趋势平缓;在寒潮爆发时刻,500 h Pa温压场配置、风场转变、高层涡度平流和冷暖平流以及地面冷高压分布与寒潮路径的选择密切相关,其中第二类北路型寒潮的低槽、负涡度区和冷平流区偏东分布,第三类则相应偏西。  相似文献   

Varieties of flood risk governance in Europe: How do countries respond to driving forces and what explains institutional change?     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Floods are challenging the resilience of societies all over the world. In many countries there are discussions on diversifying the strategies for flood risk management, which implies some sort of policy change. To understand the possibilities of such change, a thorough understanding of the forces of stability and change of underlying governance arrangements is required. It follows from the path dependency literature that countries which rely strongly on flood infrastructures, as part of flood defense strategies, would be more path dependent. Consequently there is a higher chance to find more incremental change in these countries than in countries that have a more diversified set of strategies. However, comparative and detailed empirical studies that may help scrutinize this assumption are lacking.To address this knowledge gap, this paper investigates how six European countries (Belgium, England, France, The Netherlands, Poland and Sweden) essentially differ with regard to their governance of flood risks. To analyze stability and change, we focus on how countries are responding to certain societal and ecological driving forces (ecological turn; climate change discourses; European policies; and the increasing prevalence of economic rationalizations) that potentially affect the institutional arrangements for flood risk governance. Taking both the variety of flood risk governance in countries and their responses to driving forces into account, we can clarify the conditions of stability or change of flood risk governance arrangements more generally. The analysis shows that the national-level impact of driving forces is strongly influenced by the flood risk governance arrangements in the six countries. Path dependencies are indeed visible in countries with high investments in flood infrastructure accompanied by strongly institutionalized governance arrangements (Poland, the Netherlands) but not only there. Also more diversified countries that are less dependent on flood infrastructure and flood defense only (England) show path dependencies and mostly incremental change. More substantial changes are visible in countries that show moderate diversification of strategies (Belgium, France) or countries that ‘have no strong path yet’ in comprehensive flood risk governance (Sweden). This suggests that policy change can be expected when there is both the internal need and will to change and a barrage of (external) driving forces pushing for change.  相似文献   

Ant intelligence for solving optimal path‐covering problems with multi‐objectives     

Xia Li  Jinqiang He  Xiaoping Liu 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(7):839-857

Conventional methods have difficulties in forming optimal paths when raster data are used and multi‐objectives are involved. This paper presents a new method of using ant colony optimization (ACO) for solving optimal path‐covering problems on unstructured raster surfaces. The novelty of this proposed ACO includes the incorporation of a couple of distinct features which are not present in classical ACO. A new component, the direction function, is used to represent the ‘visibility’ in the path exploration. This function is to guide an ant walking toward the final destination more efficiently. Moreover, a utility function is proposed to reflect the multi‐objectives in planning applications. Experiments have shown that classical ACO cannot be used to solve this type of path optimization problems. The proposed ACO model can generate near optimal solutions by using hypothetical data in which the optimal solutions are known. This model can also find the near optimal solutions for the real data set with a good convergence rate. It can yield much higher utility values compared with other common conventional models.  相似文献   

不同贝龄毛蚶壳形态性状对体质量的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李莉  郑永允  徐科凤  邱兆星  郭萍萍 《海洋科学》2015,39(6):54-58

选取毛蚶(Scapharca subcrenata Lischke)1龄、2龄和3龄个体各100粒,分别测量壳长、壳高和壳宽等壳形态性状,并称其体质量,采用多元分析的方法分析了各表型性状间的相关性,以及壳形态性状对体质量的影响效果。结果表明,各性状间呈正相关,且达到极显著水平(P0.001);通径分析与决定程度分析的结果相似,不同贝龄期影响毛蚶体质量的主要因素是不同的,壳长是影响1龄毛蚶体质量的主要因素,壳长和壳宽是影响2龄毛蚶体质量的主要因素,且两者的共同决定系数最大(0.244),壳宽是影响3龄毛蚶体质量的主要因素,其与壳高的共同决定系数最大(0.230)。  相似文献   

锦州地区春玉米物候变化趋势及其与水热条件的关系     

赵先丽  蔡福  丁抗抗  王赛頔  王笑影  张慧  贾庆宇  温日红  吴航 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(5):64-71

利用1980—1984年和2004—2020年锦州市农业气象观测站春玉米物候观测资料和气象观测资料, 采用趋势系数、倾向率、相关分析和通径分析等方法, 分析了锦州市春玉米生育期长度和水热条件的变化趋势, 并探讨了锦州市春玉米生育期长度与水热条件的关系。结果表明: 1980—1984年和2004—2020年锦州地区春玉米各生育期长度变化趋势不同, 除抽雄期、成熟期和生殖生长期外, 其他生育期长度均呈缩短的趋势。营养生长期长度极显著缩短, 生殖生长期长度极显著延长, 因此全生育期呈弱的延长趋势, 变化不明显。春玉米各生育期水热条件变化趋势不同, 热量条件变化显著, 而水分条件变化不显著, 多数生育期≥10 ℃活动积温(DT10)和生长度日(GDD)呈增加的趋势, 其中抽雄期、成熟期和生殖生长期、全生育期热量条件呈极显著增加趋势, 表明热量条件对春玉米生长发育影响最大。相关分析和通径分析表明, DT10和GDD对春玉米生育期长度影响最大, 水分条件对春玉米生育期长度影响较小, 其中出苗期、成熟期和全生育期长度与水分条件相关显著。可见, 锦州地区水热因子之间相互制约、相互影响, 共同影响春玉米的整个生育期。  相似文献