基于PI算法的青藏块体强震回溯性研究     

余娜  张晓清  袁伏全  赵燕杰 《地震地磁观测与研究》2021,42(1):35-41

利用中国地震台网中心提供的1970—2019年8月全国地震目录,在分析青藏块体最小完备震级的基础上,应用PI算法,选取空间网格尺度0.2°×0.2°,截止震级为M_L3.0,目标震级≥M_S6.0,预测时间窗设定为10 a、5 a、3 a不同时间尺度进行回溯性研究,并对预测结果进行ROC检验。结果表明,预测时间窗内的强震基本发生在PI算法所得异常区域附近,且预测结果明显优于随机概率法;PI算法对青藏块体中长时间尺度的强震具有一定的预测效能,而且将预测时间窗设定为3 a时,预测效能较好。此外,定性分析了活动块体边界带“目标”地震与地震热点丛集间的关系,发现青藏块体M_S≥6.0地震与活动块体边界带地震热点间的对应关系较好。在实际应用中,将PI算法计算结果与活动块体边界带结合起来考虑强震相对危险区域时,该研究结果具有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

Ranking European regions as providers of structural riparian corridors for conservation and management purposes     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2013

Riparian zones are of utmost importance in providing a wide range of ecological and societal services. Among these, their role in maintaining landscape connectivity through ecological corridors for animals and plants is of major interest from a conservation and management perspective. This paper describes a methodology to identify European regions as providers of structural riparian corridors, and to rank them with reference to conservation priority. Physical riparian connectors among core habitat patches are identified through a recent segmentation technique, the Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis. A multi-scale approach is followed by considering different edge distances to identify core and peripheral habitats for a range of hypothetical species. The ranking is performed using a simple set of indices that take into account the degree of environmental pressure and the presence of land protection schemes. An example for environmental reporting is carried out using European administrative regions and major rivers to summarize indices value. The approach is based on freely available software and simple metrics which can be easily reproduced in a GIS environment.  相似文献   

基于ESDA的河南艾滋病空间格局   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐旳  柯文前  陈培阳 《地理研究》2013,32(7):1199-1208

以2008 年河南省地级市艾滋病分布数据为基础,利用ESDA空间数据挖掘的方法,对河南省艾滋病空间格局进行全面分析。结果表明：① 综合考虑河南省18 个地级市艾滋病确诊人数数据的空间自相关分析结果和不同传播途径感染单因素空间格局的结果,将河南艾滋病感染区域分为以FPD感染途径为主的豫南、豫东南高度流行区和以高危行为传播途径为主的豫北低度流行区;② 河南省艾滋病感染途径分布中,FPD感染、母婴感染、异性传播感染和注射吸毒传播具有明显的空间正相关,而同性传播途径与输血感染则显示出较大的空间随机分布特征;③ 与FPD 感染存在空间正相关的为注射吸毒传播、异性传播以及母婴传播方式,输血、同性以及其他方式传播途径与FPD感染途径分布不存在空间相关性。  相似文献   

New paleomagnetic data from Upper Oligocene–Lower Miocene rocks of the Northern Argentine Puna–Southern Bolivian Altiplano: Constraining the age of vertical axis rotations     

《Journal of Geodynamics》2014

Along the Central Andes a pattern of vertical axis rotations has been paleomagnetically identified. Such rotations are counterclockwise north of Arica Deflection (∼19° S) and clockwise to the south. Different hypothesis and models have been proposed to explain the Central Andean Rotation Pattern (CARP). However, the origin of the CARP is a subject of ongoing debate. Recently, different authors have proposed the possible existence of a close correlation between the time–space distribution of deformation and the amount of registered vertical axis rotations in the Southern Central Andes. In order to further investigate such relationship, new paleomagnetic studies were carried out in Upper Oligocene–Lower Miocene rocks of the Northern Argentine Puna and the Southern Bolivian Altiplano. Our results indicate that while one of the sampled localities did not undergo significant vertical axis rotations, the other two recorded clockwise vertical axis rotations larger than 30°. These results suggest the occurrence of small-block rotations in the Southern Bolivian Altiplano–Northern Argentine Puna prior to 15 Ma, which would correspond to the local accommodation of the regional deformation field.  相似文献   

辽宁中部城市群灰霾污染的外来影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

洪也  杨婷  王喜全  马雁军  关颖  张云海  周德平  王扬锋  刘宁微 《气候与环境研究》2015,20(6):675-684

利用MODIS(MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)卫星资料、空气质量监测资料、地面气象资料及后向轨迹方法,对辽宁中部城市群代表性城市——沈阳市2009年全年发生的30 d首要污染物为PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)且空气污染指数API(Air pollution Index)为3级及以上污染过程的天气形势及污染来源进行了综合分析。研究结果表明:引发3级以上重污染事件的天气形势主要为4类,分别为高压均压场型(包括高压后均压场型、高压前均压场型和高压内均压场型)、长白山小高压型、弱低压场型及地形槽型。发生污染天气时气流主要有两个来向,即西南方向的京津冀来向和偏北方向的内蒙和长春来向。气流来自偏南方向的天数最多,为19 d。其中最容易受京津冀影响的天气型为高压后均压场型和地形槽型,共有8 d,占总污染天数的26.7%。因此,来自京津冀的外来输送对于辽宁中部城市群霾污染的影响不容小视,辽宁中部城市群空气质量的改善与临近区域的改善紧密相关。  相似文献   

2000/2001年冬季北欧异常流型形成机理及其对我国北方天气的影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

布和朝鲁  施宁  纪立人 《高原气象》2008,27(1):76-83

从Rossby波能量的频散和瞬变斜压扰动的正压反馈角度,探讨了2000/2001年冬季盛行的斯堪的纳维亚环流型(正位相)的维持机理,并讨论了其对我国北方地区天气气候的影响。该环流型上游部分,即北大西洋和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的两个活动中心主要由瞬变斜压扰动的正压反馈所形成,部分由Rossby波能量频散所维持。而下游部分,即贝加尔湖附近的气旋式环流异常主要由Rossby波能量从上游频散所形成和维持。与该环流型对应,冷空气在西、中西伯利亚堆积,并在其南侧的西风气流区中平流,使得我国华北部分地区和东北地区比常年冷。该环流型导致新疆北部地区、内蒙古东部及东北地区降雪量显著增强。大西洋急流的东伸及对应斜压扰动的显著加强是预报北疆和内蒙古东部及东北地区多雪的一个重要前兆因子。  相似文献   

The complex legal status of the Current Fishing Pattern Zone in the East China Sea     

《Marine Policy》2017

The purpose of this article is to analyze the legal status of fisheries in the East China Sea (ECS) pursuant to these fisheries agreements, focusing on the legal issues of the Current Fishing Pattern Zone (CFPZ) which is provided for in the Fisheries Agreement between Korea and China. The CFPZ is a zone or area in which Korean and Chinese fishing patterns that existed before the agreement are respected. Although the legal status of fisheries in the CFPZ appears to be very simple, it is in fact very complex due to the overlapping jurisdictions of Korea, China and Japan. Therefore, the fisheries regime is rather vulnerable with the possibility of increasing legal conflicts. However, it is noteworthy that fisheries conflicts come up rarely in these relevant waters. This article explores the bilateral fisheries agreements and EEZ laws of the respective states, and thereafter deals with the legal issues that arise in the execution of these agreements regarding the area of overlapping waters.  相似文献   

华南前汛期MCS的活动特征及组织发展形式   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

梁巧倩  项颂翔  林良根  蒙伟光 《热带气象学报》2012,28(4):541-551

利用卫星云图Tbb资料、常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,按照Jirak对中尺度对流系统(MCS)的分类方法,将华南MCS分为MCC(中尺度对流复合体)、PECS(线状或长条状MCS)、MβCCS和MβECS(即β尺度的MCC和β尺度的PECS)4种类型,对华南前汛期MCS的时空变化特征、发生发展的组织形式和天气学背景进行了分析。结果表明:PECS是华南地区MCS的主要发展形式。4—6月MCS的发生个数逐月增多。MCS的日变化呈单峰型,主要集中于下午到上半夜形成,傍晚到半夜之间发展成熟。但具体到不同的4种类型,其日变化特征有一定差异。MCS活动分布特征与地形没有明显对应关系,全区都可有PECS发生。MCS主要以东移为主,其次的移动方向4种不同类型分别略有不同。MCS的发生发展有3种主要天气形势:500 hPa槽前西南风场型、850 hPa切变线南侧的西南风场型和地面低槽配合的Ⅰ型;500 hPa西北风场型、850 hPa切变线型和地面低槽配合的Ⅱ型;500 hPa西风槽过境型、850 hPa切变线南侧的西南风场型和地面低槽配合的Ⅲ型。孤立发展和合并增长是华南MCS的主要组织发展形式。  相似文献   

Patterns of the Impacts of Climate Change on Civilization     

Xiuqi Fang  Diyang Zhang 《地球科学进展》2017,32(11):1218-1225

Climate change has profoundly impacted the development of human civilization. It is one of the basic forces that have led to the rise and fall of regional civilization. The manifestations and ultimate consequences of the impacts of climate change on social development are the products of the interaction between climate change and human society, which are both related to the characteristics of climate change and to the adaptation of human society. Based on the published papers on climate change and civilization during the past 20 years, five patterns of the impacts of climate change on civilization were summarized. They are periodic changes, pulse, adaptive transition, collapse, migration and replacement. Periodic changes and pulse occurred when climate change impacts were within the resilience of human social systems. Thus, there was no need for major structural changes in the human society. Adaptive transition was a fruit of successful response of the human system when the extent of abrupt climatic change or the trend of climate change exceeded the available range of human social systems In contrast, collapse was a result of failed response of the human system. Migration and replacement, in which people moved from their original living place to other regions and sometimes even replaced the aboriginal civilizations with the colonized civilization, could occur no matter the impacts of climate change had exceeded the resilience of human system. The summarization is expected to be useful for the understanding of the mechanism on the relationship between climate change and civilization, and for coping with the challenges of future global climate change.  相似文献   

用于成像光谱数据特征矿物识别的人工神经网络结构研究     

何勇强  姚国清 《国土资源遥感》2004,15(3):23-27

当某一问题很难甚至无法用数学方法建立精确模型时,人工神经网络的方法则显示了优势。对于一个具体问题,采用何种网络结构是至关重要的。本文以美国内华达州Cuprite矿区成像光谱数据特征矿物识别为例,采用6种不同结构的多层前馈网络模型,从其训练难度、运算效率及识别效果等方面进行了综合对比分析。  相似文献