Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Marijke Huysmans  Tamás Madarász  Alain Dassargues 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(2):180-193

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.  相似文献   

R＆D投入的区位模式与区域经济发展   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

姜怀宇  李铁立 《地理科学》2006,26(1):13-19

基于对中国R＆D投入的区位模式的实证检验，从投入一产出绩效的角度认为集中投入的区位模式具有较强的适宜性。利用聚类分析技术，按照R＆D的投入强度和及其对经济的带动效应、科技化效应、产业化效应将中国各省区划分为6类地区，具有代表性的是科技化模式和产业化模式。其中前者适合于技术存置较高的少数地区，而后者具有较强的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

用强度折减法和FLAC^3D计算边坡的安全系数   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李新坡陈永波  王永杰何思明 王成华 《山地学报》2006,24(B10):235-239

对采用强度折减法和FLAC^3D计算边坡的安全系数问题进行了研究。对边坡破坏的判断标准、边坡滑面位置的确定及计算参数对安全系数计算结果的影响进行了分析。结果表明，用FLAC计算时，边坡的破坏可以通过节点最大不平衡力突变、节点最大速度突变、特定点位移的不收敛等特征进行判断，同时边坡破坏的滑面也可以由速度等值线图等方法表示出来。另外，通过分析发现，弹性常数、剪胀角等参数对安全系数计算结果的影响不大。  相似文献   

西北地区泥石流沟形态因素的非线性分析——以兰州市为例     

李建林  冯起 《干旱区地理》2006,29(5):658-662

以兰州市区96条主要的泥石流沟为例,利用分形理论的统计自相似性对泥石流沟数的累计分布随沟谷形态要素沟道比降、汇水面积和沟道长度的变化进行了分析;并与不同流域形态要素的分维进行了比较,探讨了分维不同的原因。兰州市区泥石流沟三个形态要素均具有统计意义上的自相似性,其中以汇水面积显示出分维最小(0.46),沟道长度次之(0.71),沟道比降最大(1.09)。分维的大小描述了作为系统的沟谷及其泥石流的形成的空间结构,即分形结构,同时也反映了不同形态要素对系统所起作用的差异,分维越小,所起作用越显著。其结果对西北干旱半干旱地区石流灾害的进一步研究与防治提供了新的思路。  相似文献   

南极菌Pseudoalteromonas sp．S-15-13产胞外多糖的研究及其分子鉴定   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

李江  陈靠山  林学政  李光友 《极地研究》2006,17(2):130-135

本文对影响南极细菌S-15-13生长和胞外多糖产量的主要环境因子进行了研究,同时采用16S rDNA序列分析及系统发育分析方法对其进行了分子鉴定。结果表明：菌株S-15-13最佳产糖条件为：培养时间,56h；培养温度,8℃；碳源,1．0%葡萄糖；NaCl浓度,3．0%；pH,6．0-7．0。16S rDNA序列分析和系统发育分析表明,菌株S-15-13属于假交替单胞菌属(Pseudoaltero- monas)。  相似文献   

Flow and form in rehabilitation of large-river ecosystems: An example from the Lower Missouri River   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Robert B. Jacobson  David L. Galat   《Geomorphology》2006,77(3-4):249

On large, intensively engineered rivers like the Lower Missouri, the template of the physical habitat is determined by the nearly independent interaction of channel form and flow regime. We evaluated the interaction between flow and form by modeling four combinations of modern and historical channel form and modern and historical flow regimes. The analysis used shallow, slow water (shallow-water habitat, SWH, defined as depths between 0 and 1.5 m, and current velocities between 0 and 0.75 m/s) as an indicator of habitat that has been lost on many intensively engineered rivers and one that is thought to be especially important in rearing of young fishes. Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for modern and historical channels of the Lower Missouri River at Hermann, Missouri, indicate substantial differences between the two channels in total availability and spatial characteristics of SWH. In the modern channel, SWH is maximized at extremely low flows and in overbank flows, whereas the historical channel had substantially more SWH at all discharges and SWH increased with increasing discharge. The historical channel form produced 3–7 times the SWH area of the modern channel regardless of flow regime. The effect of flow regime is evident in increased within-year SWH variability with the natural flow regime, including significant seasonal peaks of SWH associated with spring flooding. Comparison with other reaches along the Lower Missouri River indicates that a) channel form is the dominant control of the availability of habitat even in reaches where the hydrograph is more intensively altered, and b) rehabilitation projects that move toward the historical condition can be successful in increasing topographic diversity and thereby decreasing sensitivity of the availability of habitat to flow regime. The relative efficacy of managing flow and form in creating SWH is useful information toward achieving socially acceptable rehabilitation of the ecosystem in large river systems.  相似文献   

Modelling net erosion responses to enviroclimatic changes recorded upon multisecular timescales     

Nazzareno Diodato   《Geomorphology》2006,80(3-4):164-177

Land use change has been recognized throughout the Earth as one of the most important factors influencing the occurrence of rainfall-driven geomorphological processes. However, relating the occurrence of historical soil erosion rates is difficult because of the lack of long-term research projects in river basins. Also, complex models are not adequate to reconstruct erosion rate changes because they require significant input data not always available on long timescales. Given the problems with assessing sediment yield using complex erosion models, the objective of this study is to explore a parsimonious scale-adapted erosion model (ADT) from the original Thornes and Douglas algorithms, which aims at reconstruction of annual net erosion (ANE) upon multisecular timescales. As a test site, the Calore River basin (3015 km² in southern Italy) provides a peculiar and unique opportunity for modelling erosion responses to climate and land cover changes, where input-data generation and interpretation results were also supported by documented hydrogeomorphological events that occurred before and after land deforestation. In this way, ANE_ADT-values were reconstructed for the period 1675–2004 by using precipitation indexes, complemented by recent instrumental records, and by using land cover statistics from documented agrarian sources. Pulses of natural sedimentation in the predeforestation period have been related to Vesuvius volcanic activity and changes in rainstorm frequency. After deforestation, the basin system became unstable with sudden fluctuations in the hydrogeomorphological regime contributing significantly to increased erosion and, in turn, sediment transport sequences via river drainage towards the Tyrrhenian coast.  相似文献   

Climate change in Mt. Qomolangma region since 1971     

YANG Xuchao  ZHANG Yili  ZHANG Wei  YAN Yuping  WANG Zhaofeng  DING Mingjun  CHU Duo 《地理学报》2006,16(3):326-336

Using monthly average, maximum, minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation data from 5 weather stations in Mt. Qomolangma region in China from 1971 to 2004, climatic linear trend, moving average, low-pass filter and accumulated variance analysis methods, the spatial and temporal patterns of the climatic change in this region were analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) There is obvious ascending tendency for the interannual change of air temperature in Mt. Qomolangma region and the ascending tendency of Tingri, the highest station, is the most significant. The rate of increasing air temperature is 0.234 oC/decade in Mt. Qomolangma region, 0.302 oC/decade in Tingri. The air temperature increases more strongly in non-growing season. (2) Compared with China and the global average, the warming of Mt. Qomolangma region occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase in Mt. Qomolangma region exceed those for China and the global average in the same period. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate change. (3) The southern and northern parts of Mt. Qomolangma region are quite different in precipitation changes. Stations in the northern part show increasing trends but are not statistically significant. Nyalam in the southern part shows a decreasing trend and the sudden decreasing of precipitation occurred in the early 1990s. (4) Compared with the previous studies, we find that the warming of Mt. Qomolangma high-elevation region is most significant in China in the same period. The highest automatic meteorological comprehensive observation station in the world set up at the base camp of Mt. Qomolangma with a height of 5032 m a.s.l will play an important role in monitoring the global climate change.  相似文献   

RACIALIZED TOPOGRAPHIES: ALTITUDE AND RACE IN SOUTHERN CITIES*     

JEFF UELAND  BARNEY WARF 《Geographical review》2006,96(1):50-78

ABSTRACT. This study examines altitudinal residential segregation by race in 146 cities in the U.S. South. It begins by embedding the topic in recent theorizations of the social construction of nature, the geography of race, and environmental justice. Second, it focuses on how housing markets, particularly in the South, tend to segregate minorities in low‐lying, flood‐prone, and amenity‐poor segments of urban areas. It tests empirically the hypothesis that blacks are disproportionately concentrated in lower‐altitude areas using gis to correlate race and elevation by digital elevation‐model block group within each city in 1990 and 2000. The statistical results confirm the suspected trend. A map of coefficients indicates strong positive associations in cities in the interior South‐where the hypothesis is confirmed‐and an inverse relationship near the coast, where whites dominate higher‐valued coastal properties. Selected city case studies demonstrate these relationships connecting the broad dynamics of racial segregation to the particularities of individual places.  相似文献   

SOCIAL RELATIONS SPATIALLY FIXED: CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE OF SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN SAN ANTONIO,TEXAS     

Christine M. Drennon 《Geographical review》2006,96(4):567-593

ABSTRACT. More than 140 court cases filed in the United States between 1970 and 2003 argued that unacceptable and unconstitutional funding disparities exist among school districts in most states. In those arguments, stories, statistics, and maps are used to compare various school districts to prove that conditions are indeed unequal. Both sides—plaintiff and defendant—use such information to disprove each other's contentions. In so doing, each assumes that the political spaces of the school districts are absolute, timeless, and independent. Failure to recognize that these spaces—the school districts—are not objective but, in fact, constitutive of the class and race relations actually being argued and debated in court further legitimates local geographies of privilege and deprivation. I examine the formation of the school districts around San Antonio, Texas to illustrate that these districts are far from independent of one another and were formed to isolate privileged communities from the rest of the city. A relational view of space‐time allows such spaces as school districts to assume a political role, as opposed to the absolute, independent spaces they now represent.  相似文献