Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 1. Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 1. Propriétés distributionnelles marginales des processus hydrologiques et échelle d'état     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.  相似文献   

The influence of medium-range transport on O3 levels at a rural site in Israel     

Batia Lifshitz  Mordechai Peleg  Menachem Luria 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,7(1):19-33

Simultaneous ozone measurements were made at a rural site, 25 km SSW of the city of Jerusalem, and in the center of the city during a period of 28 months. The ozone data were supplemented by SO₂, NO/NO _x ,and meteorological measurements at both sites. Elevated ozone concentrations were recorded at the rural site, mostly during the spring months (May and June) during which the monthly averages and the monthly averages of the daily 30 min maximum levels equalled those measured in the city. During the summer months, both average and peak levels were lower at the rural site by 20 and 35 ppb. The increased ozone levels at the rural site were accompanied by a parallel increase of SO₂ and NO _x ,suggesting hat the excess ozone at the rural site is a result of a transformation during transport of air pollutants from coastal sources.  相似文献   

Global spectra of energy and enstrophy and their fluxes during July 1979     

S S Desai  S K Mishra 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(2):329-350

Transient and stationary spectra of kinetic energy (KE), available potential energy (APE) and enstrophy (EN), and their spectral fluxes as a function of the two-dimensional wavenumbern were computed for July 1979. Triangular truncation at zonal wavenumber 42 was used for computation. The slopes of various spectra in the wavenumber range 14≤n≤25 were obtained by fitting a straight line in log-log scale by the least square method. The transientKE, APE andEN spectra in the lower (upper) troposphere had slopes −2·21 (−2·30), −2·65 (−2·64) and −0·36 (−0·46), respectively. The effect of stationary and divergent motion on the slope values was investigated. The possible correlation between the slope and percentage of transient component in the combined energy and enstrophy was examined to identify the transient motion of the atmosphere with the two-dimensional homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The vertically averaged slope of kinetic energy and enstrophy in the lower (upper) troposphere was close to the value at 700 (200) hPa level. The spectral fluxes of kinetic energy and enstrophy in the wavenumber range 14≤n≤25 satisfied, to a very rough approximation, the criteria of inertial subrange. The stationary fluxes were small. The estimated stationary-transient component of flux was larger, comparable and less than the corresponding transient flux of APE, KE and EN. Representative levels for computation of energy and enstrophy spectra and their fluxes in the lower and upper troposphere were identified.  相似文献   

水电站水库群模糊优化调度模型与目标协调－模糊规划法   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

谢新民 《水科学进展》1995,6(3):189-197

利用大系统和模糊数学规划理论与方法,分析和探讨了水电站水库群模糊优化调度问题,建立了水电站水库群模糊优化调度模型,提出一种目标协调-模糊规划(IB-FP)法.理论分析和实例计算表明,所建立的模糊优化调度模型和提出的IB-FP法是可行和有效的.  相似文献   

Flood dynamics of a concrete-lined,urban stream in Kansas City,Missouri     

D. M. Vaughn 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1990,15(6):525-537

Brush Creek drains a 76·1 km² watershed within urban Kansas City, Missouri and eastern Kansas. A concrete-lined reach trending 6·1 km through the Plaza District of Kansas City, Missouri has been the focus for several major floods over the past ten years. Channel geometry, slope, and floodwater elevations were determined in the field for segments of the concrete-lined section of Brush Creek for a flood event that occurred on September 18, 1986. Discharge was computed by indirect methods and compared to a value determined from a rating curve established by the Water Resources Division of the U.S.G.S. Boundary shear stress, unit stream power, and average velocity were also computed in order to establish a quantitative relationship between sediment distribution, volume, and size fractions; and flow dynamics operating throughout the channel during this event. Boundary shear stress ranged from 91-96 Nm^?2, stream power was 528-557 Wm^?2, while average velocity was 5-8 ms^?1. These values were sufficient to displace concrete slabs as large as 5 m long by 4·6 m wide by 0·23 m thick weighing an estimated 12 245 kg. As the channel was sediment free and unsecured prior to the flood, the distribution of deposits and subsequent channel scour provide valuable evidence for potentially hazardous sections of this urban stream.  相似文献   

高效防水隔热粉的研制     

王廷吉  徐伟昌 《华东地质学院学报》1994,17(4):384-388

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辽南核电站厂址区断层的评价问题          下载免费PDF全文

李愿军 《地震工程学报》1994,16(3):47-53

作者通过对核安全法规的学习和前人对辽南核电站厂址区断层的调查，并结合对断层实际踏勘，认为厂址区附近的东岗断层属于现行法规（ＨＡＦ０１０１）中规定的能动断层。但是，仅此一点并不能构成对推荐厂址的威胁，因为断层距厂址直线距离约４ｋｍ，断层的地表或近地表错动不会直接影响到核反应堆的安全。  相似文献   

DPP100－3型钻机改型设计中的几个问题          下载免费PDF全文

张宝胜 《探矿工程》1994,(4):9-11,15

讨论了ＤＰＰ１００－３型钻机在改型设计中动力匹配，改换汽车底盘的轴荷分配，改装部分的传动装置布置等，主要以选用ＣＡ１４１Ｓ型汽车底盘的改型设计为例进行说明。  相似文献   

珠江三角洲电力系统震害预测     

杜修力  张锐  赵成刚 《华南地震》1995,(3)

在对珠江三角洲电力系统进行抽样调查的基础上，给出了电力系统中网络节点和架空线路的平均破坏率矩阵，并结合地震危险性定数法分析结果预测珠江三角洲电力系统的震害情况。  相似文献   

区域经济一体化的动力机制及组织类型     

赵媛  诸嘉 《世界地理研究》2007,16(3):1-7

区域经济一体化在二战后得到迅速发展，并已成为当今世界经济发展的主要趋势之一。其载体区域经济一体化组织的内容也更加丰富、层次更加多样。从发展的角度看，区域经济一体化是全球范围内市场经济发展到一定阶段的结果，促使其发展的动力机制为“推、拉、压、支”四力驱动和“传统经济利益、非传统收益、政治利益”三大取向。在组织类型上，根据区域经济一体化内容和发展程度的不同分为优惠贸易安排、自由贸易区、关税同盟、共同市场、经济同盟和完全的经济一体化六种类型。  相似文献