近57a南疆帕米尔地区春季降水季节内差异及环流异常分析     

陈静  毛炜峄  李红军 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2018,12(5):46-54

基于1961—2017年帕米尔地区3站的日降水资料及NECP/NCAR再分析资料,利用气候诊断分析及多元统计学方法,研究了近57 a来帕米尔地区春季降水特征及季节内差异,并讨论了降水偏多年大气环流异常特征。研究表明:(1)近57 a来,帕米尔地区季节尺度上和月尺度上降水增加明显,旬尺度上有不显著的增加趋势。21世纪初帕米尔地区进入新的多雨期,降水正距平年份强度和频率均有显著增加。(2)500 hPa高度场上3月东欧沿岸脊发展、东欧—西西伯利亚槽加深,4—5月欧洲沿岸槽加深、乌拉尔山脊发展、巴尔喀什湖槽加深是帕米尔地区降水异常偏多的关键系统及指标。(3)降水异常年的高空急流较常年强度更强、位置更偏东,在旬尺度上是一个逐渐减弱西退的过程;其低层风场距平分为西南风距平辐合型、西南风和东北风距平辐合型和气旋式环流距平辐合型,均有利于低层辐合。(4)降水异常偏多年水汽输送以偏西路径为主,同时还有偏东、西南和偏南路径,水汽辐合强度较常年更强,更有利于降水的产生。  相似文献   

2018年春季气候异常及可能成因分析   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

王遵娅  柳艳菊  丁婷  李多  洪洁莉 《气象》2018,44(10):1360-1369

2018年春季全国平均气温为1961年来最高,全国大部地区气温普遍偏高,尤其是长江以南及中国北方的中部区域偏高明显。全国平均降水量较常年略偏多,呈东部地区“南少北多”,华西降水偏多,而江南南部至华南、西北西部的部分地区降水偏少的分布特点。自北大西洋经欧亚大陆至东北亚中高纬上空的纬向波列及东亚低层维持的异常偏南气流是2018年春季中国气候异常的重要原因,且乌拉尔山以东的低槽和东北亚上空的高脊是关键环流系统。亚洲中低纬上空均为异常高压脊控制,尤其是东北亚上空的高脊造成了2018年春季中国大部地区气温偏高。乌拉尔山以东低槽有利于冷空气爆发南下而东北亚上空的高脊引导西北太平洋暖湿气流向西向北影响我国,冷暖气流交汇从而造成了长江以北地区及华西降水偏多,而南海至西太平洋上空的异常气旋则导致江南南部至华南少雨。另外,虽然2017/2018年冬季发生了一次弱的La Ni〖AKn~D〗a事件,并且2018年春季北大西洋三极子模态（NAT）呈较强的正位相,但其对中国2018年春季降水异常影响较小,而以大气环流的影响为主导。进一步分析发现,乌拉尔山以东的低槽和东北亚上空的高脊与中国春季温度和降水具有很好的相关性,易于造成中国气温偏高;东部降水“南少北多”且华西多雨。两个关键环流系统间存在显著的负相关关系,且均与欧亚遥相关（EU）波列关系密切。同时,东北亚上空的脊还与北极涛动（AO）正位相具有高相关。  相似文献   

Diversity of the Coupling Wheels in the East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Interannual Time Scale: Challenge of Summer Rainfall Forecasting in China     

Congwen ZHU  Boqi LIU  Kang XU  Ning JIANG  Kai LIU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(4):546-554

Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high(SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upperlevel SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel's interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China.  相似文献   

基于EOF分解的中期平均气温距平客观预报方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄威  张恒德  鲍媛媛  康志明 《气象科学》2017,37(4):561-566

本文通过将500 hPa高度、850 hPa温度、海平面气压的预报与历史要素场进行EOF分解,并假定EOF分解空间函数(即特征向量)是基本稳定的,建立以EOF分解主分量系列的时间系数、预报站点附近基本要素值的时间序列与预报站点平均气温距平的多元线性逐步回归预报方程,结合ECMWF集合预报数值产品,生成全国范围未来10 d平均气温距平客观预报产品投入业务应用,并采用同号率方法检验。结果表明,客观预报产品在检验时段内,同号率平均值为0.77,明显高于ECMWF集合预报模式2 m温度直接计算得出的同类产品同号率0.63;该客观预报产品不仅在分布范围上,同时在距平幅度上预报效果均较好。此外,相关分析也证明同号率方法在检验中期时效气温距平预报中有其合理性。  相似文献   

一个新的东亚副热带夏季风指数的定义     

晏红明  胡娟  周建琴  姚愚  孙丞虎 《气象学报》2017,75(2):193-210

利用1958—2014年夏季NCEP/NCAR大气环流资料和中国486站降水观测资料,通过多种统计诊断方法,从与夏季中国东部3类不同雨型分布相联系的东亚高低层风场变化特征出发,依据与雨带变化密切联系的高层200 hPa纬向风定义了一个新的东亚副热带夏季风指数。分析表明,该指数不仅能反映夏季东亚大气环流的变化特征,兼顾北方冷空气活动和南方东亚夏季风环流变化,同时还能反映夏季中国东部降水南北差异的年际特征。强东亚副热带夏季风指数年,高层中纬度西风急流位置偏北,低层西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏北,有利于冷空气活动位置偏北和东亚东部西南暖湿气流向北推进,中国东部多以Ⅰ类雨型为主;弱东亚副热带夏季风指数年的环流变化刚好相反,中国东部多以Ⅲ类雨型为主。与现有东亚夏季风指数的对比分析表明,该指数在反映中国东部南北区域降水变化的差异方面有很大改进。  相似文献   

高精度航磁资料在冶山铁矿找矿潜力扩大中的应用     

张翔 《地质与勘探》2016,52(6):1138-1146

在最新的1∶2.5万高精度航磁测量成果基础上,采用化极、延拓、小波多尺度分解、径向功率谱分析等方法,对冶山铁矿一带航磁异常进行了处理。重新厘定了冶山铁矿的成矿母岩—冶山岩体的分布及延深,新厘定分布范围约为出露区的70倍,推测延深在4000m以上。分析认为,冶山铁矿区矿体埋深主要在220m~860m,1300m深度以下基本无矿体存在。在矿区外围圈出10个找矿有利异常,其中北矿段北西方向的5个异常推测为矿致异常,具备良好的找矿潜力;铁石岗矿段南西方向5个有利异常主要由辉石二长岩和闪长岩引起,但其中仍可能有铁磁性矿产存在。  相似文献   

北半球夏季海洋性大陆区域气候与EP型ENSO:直接与间接联系          下载免费PDF全文

方陆俊  管兆勇  王美  夏阳 《大气科学学报》2016,39(3):289-299

利用1979—2009年的NECP资料、Hadley海温月平均资料和CMAP降水资料,采用Kao and Yu(2009)的方法定义了夏季EP型ENSO指数EPI,用合成分析的方法分析了东部型ENSO与海洋性大陆降水的关系。结果表明:EPI与MC(Maritime Continent,海洋性大陆)区域降水变化间存在非常弱的负相关。造成这一弱相关的原因是EPI与MC区域降水在某些年份存在同号变化。在剔除Nio4信号后,海洋性大陆区域降水序列与EPI与存在着同号和反号两种关系。反号关系是通常所认为的,当经典的El Nio(La Nia)发生时MC区域降水出现显著地减少(增多)。此时,沿赤道的异常Walker环流建立了EP型ENSO与MC区域气候间的直接联系。而在同号关系时,菲律宾以东异常加热和SPCZ区域异常冷却引起的西北—东南走向的垂直环流圈削弱了MC区域与赤道东太平洋之间的异常Walker环流所建立的直接联系,或者说,赤道东太平洋区域SSTA与MC区域降水异常的形成是通过SPCZ区域SST的反号异常而产生间接联系的。这种机制的揭示为深刻认识ENSO影响海洋性大陆区域甚至东亚地区气候变动的联系提供了新的线索。  相似文献   

Periodicity of magnetic intensities in magnetic anomaly profiles: the Cretaceous of the Central Pacific     

Iorio  Tarling  & D'Argenio 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,133(2):233-244

Spectral analyses of long magnetic anomaly profiles of Cretaceous age in the Phoenix and Hawaiian lineations within the Pacific Basin show two to five non-harmonic wavelength peaks, with probabilities >90 per cent, within the range of several tens to hundreds of kilometres for each profile. For each profile with four peak wavelengths, their ratios correlate strongly ( r > 0.98) with the ratios for the Earth's orbital eccentricity periodicities for this time, and hence the profile peaks necessarily correlate with each other. These observations suggest that the magnetic anomaly signal is influenced by the Earth's changing orbital parameters, probably through their influence on the internal geomagnetic field. This implies that assumptions usually made to convert the magnetic signal to the magnetization of the oceanic crust may be suspect. The observations, if confirmed, indicate that orbital periodicities can assist in improving the age calibration of the global polarity timescale and that the predicted orbital behaviour of the Earth is confirmed for the last 150 Ma.  相似文献   

The continuation inverse problem revisited   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stephen P. Huestis 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,133(3):705-712

The non-uniqueness of the continuation of a finite collection of harmonic potential field data to a level surface in the source-free region forces its treatment as an inverse problem. A formalism is proposed for the construction of continuation functions which are extremal by various measures. The problem is cast in such a form that the inverse problem solution is the potential function on the lowest horizontal surface above all sources, serving as the boundary function for the Dirichlet problem in the upper half-plane. The desired continuation, at the higher level of interest, must then be in the range of the upward continuation operator acting on this boundary function, rather than being allowed the full freedom of itself being part of a Dirichlet problem boundary function. Extremal solutions minimize non-linear functionals of the continuation function, which are re-expressed as different functionals of the boundary function. A crux of the method is that there is no essential distinction between the upward and downward continuation inverse problems to levels above or below data locations. Casting the optimization as a Lagrange multiplier problem leads to an integral equation for the boundary function, which is readily solved in the Fourier domain for a certain class of functionals. The desired extremal continuation is then given by upward continuation. It is found that for some functionals, application of the Lagrange multiplier theorem requires a further restriction on the set of allowable boundary functions: bandlimitedness is a natural choice for the continuation problem. With this imposition, the theory is developed in detail for semi-norm functionals penalizing departure from a constant potential, in the 2-norm and Sobelev norm senses, and illustrated by application for a small synthetic Deep Tow magnetic field data set.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure in the upper crust beneath Kuju Volcano, central Kyushu, Japan     

Yasuaki Sudo  Yoshihiro Matsumoto 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1998,60(3):147-159

 Kuju Volcano lies near Aso Caldera at the center of Kyushu Island, western Japan. After a few hundred years of dormancy, a phreatic explosion accompanied by a small ash eruption occurred on 11 October 1995. This study was undertaken to determine the subsurface seismic velocity structure associated with the active magmatic regime in the Kuju volcanic region. The three-dimensional, upper crustal, P-wave velocity structure beneath Kuju Volcano was determined using methods for the simultaneous inversion of P-wave arrival times from local earthquakes in and around the Kuju volcanic region for velocities and hypocentral parameters. Results reveal two shallower low-velocity anomalies located in the northern and southern parts of Kuju Volcano, consistent with the presence of significant negative Bouguer gravity anomalies. In addition, a high-velocity anomaly is located approximately 5 km northwest of Mt. Kuju, one of the domes in Kuju Volcano. Beneath this high-velocity anomaly, a low-velocity anomaly is present. This velocity structure suggests a magmatic regime that has a lid consisting of cooled solid material overlying a chamber of partially molten material. Received: 23 September 1997 / Accepted: 20 June 1998  相似文献