全球气候变化中的人类活动视角:社会经济情景的演变     

姜彤  王艳君  苏布达  翟建青  陶辉  景丞  黄金龙  温珊珊  潘金玉 《南京气象学院学报》2020,12(1):68-80

社会经济情景的设定是全球气候变化研究的基础,也是气候变化影响评估的关键环节.本文回顾了社会经济情景的发展过程,阐述了共享社会经济路径的主要特点和最新发展趋势,介绍了区域社会经济情景的构建及在灾害风险领域中的应用,最后对共享社会经济路径的发展进行了展望.  相似文献   

Statistical downscaling of summer temperature extremes in northern China     

范丽军  符淙斌  严中伟 《大气科学进展》2013,30(4):1085-1095

Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downscale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross-validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downscaling to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011-35 relative to 1980-99.  相似文献   

Role of renewable energy in climate mitigation: a synthesis of recent scenarios     

Volker Krey 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):1131-1158

The role of renewable energy in climate change mitigation is explored through a review of 162 recent medium- to long-term scenarios from 15 large-scale, energy-economic and integrated assessment models. The current state of knowledge from this community is assessed and its implications drawn for the strategic context in which policymakers and other decision-makers might consider renewable energy. The scenario set is distinguished from previous ones in that it contains more detailed information on renewable deployment levels. All the scenarios in this study were published during or after 2006. Within the context of a large-scale assessment, the analysis is guided primarily by four questions. What sorts of future levels of renewable energy deployment are consistent with different CO₂ concentration goals? Which classes of renewable energy will be the most prominent energy producers and how quickly might they expand production? Where might an expansion in renewable energy occur? What is the linkage between the costs of mitigation and an expansion of renewable energy?  相似文献   

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications     

Patricia Fortes  Sofia Simões  Júlia Seixas  Denise Van Regemorter  Francisco Ferreira 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):285-304

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.  相似文献   

Understanding land-use change to reconstruct,describe or predict changes in land cover     

Rik?LeemansEmail author  Suzanne?Serneels 《GeoJournal》2004,61(4):305-307

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2050年前中国雾日变化趋势的预估          下载免费PDF全文

刘赫男  罗勇 《气候变化研究进展》2009,5(5):266-270

 利用1971-2005年中国591个气象台站的雾日资料以及逐日最低气温、相对湿度、平均风速资料,分析了35 a来中国各区域年雾日数与这些因子的相关关系,并利用IPCC第四次评估报告所提供的模式数据资料,针对3种不同的排放情景,对21世纪上半叶各区域年平均雾日进行预估。结果表明：对划分的9个雾区的年雾日数的回归方程的拟合效果较好,可以用来进行预估;未来50 a中国大部分地区雾日呈明显减少的变化趋势,在A1B,A2和B1情景下,雾日减少的平均幅度分别为16.2%,13.4%和12.9%。未来50 a中国雾日预估结果的空间分布显示：3种情景下未来中国大部分雾区雾日数都将减少,个别地区雾日数有增加趋势,其中A1B情景下雾日减少区的减少趋势最明显,而B1情景下雾日增加区的增加趋势最明显。  相似文献   

脱硝技术与天然气应用情景下京津冀地区空气质量模拟评估     

李健  安俊岭  陈勇  屈玉 《气候与环境研究》2013,18(4):472-482

针对京津冀地区主要大气污染物NOx（氮氧化物）和PM2.5（大气中粒径小于或等于2.5μm的颗粒物）,应用柴油车尾气净化技术及中小锅炉烟气脱硝技术,并根据2015年和2030年我国能源规划,设计3种技术应用情景,采用WRF-CAMx耦合模式,对京津冀地区大气中NOx和PM2.5进行了应用情景模拟。结果表明,单独应用柴油车尾气净化技术后（方案1）,北京、天津地区大气中的NOx浓度降低幅度达20%,河北地区降低5%;PM2.5的浓度降低幅度约10%;应用柴油车尾气净化技术和2015年能源规划情景（方案2）,京津冀地区大气中NOx和PM2.5浓度的降低幅度均超过20%;应用柴油车尾气净化技术和2030年能源规划情景（方案3）,该地区NOx浓度降低幅度与之相当,PM2.5浓度降低幅度超过30%。可见脱硝技术和清洁能源利用的有效性依赖于其应用比例。二次气粒转化的化学过程形成的硝酸盐、硫酸盐和铵盐对该地区空气中PM2.5浓度的贡献很大,冬、春、秋季硝酸盐最大贡献高达60%,夏、秋季硫酸盐最大贡献超过70%,铵盐四季最大贡献约25%。这说明PM2.5的主要前体物NOx、SO2、NH3、VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds)、CO等均大幅度削减才能有效降低该地区空气中PM2.5浓度。  相似文献   

两种不同减排情景下21世纪气候变化的数值模拟   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

辛晓歌  吴统文  王在志 《气象学报》2009,67(6):935-946

利用国家气候中心最新发展的气候系统模式BCC-CSM1.0模拟了相对于B1排放情景,两种不同减排情景(De90和De07,表示按照B1情景排放到2012年,之后线性递减,至2050年时CO_2排放水平分别达到1990和2007年排放水平一半的情景)对全球和中国区域气候变化的影响.结果表明:两种减排情景下模式模拟的全球平均地表气温在21世纪40年代以后明显低于Bl情景,比减排情景浓度低于B1的时间延迟了20年左右;尽管De90减排情景在2050年所达到的稳定排放水平低于De07情景,但De90情景下的全球增温在2070年以后才一致低于De07情景,这种滞后町能与耦合系统(主要足海洋)的惯性有关;至21世纪末,De90和De07情景下的全球增温幅度分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.2℃;从全球分布来看,B1情景下21世纪后30年的增温幅度在北半球高纬度和极地地区最大,减排情景能够显著减少这些地区的增温幅度,减排程度越大,则减少越多;在中国区域,B1情景下21世纪末平均增温比全球平均高约1.2℃,减排情景De90和De07分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.3℃,中国北方地区增温幅度高于南方及沿海地区,减排情景能够显著减小中国西部地区的增温幅度;B1情景下21世纪后30年伞球增温在冬季最高,De90和De07情景分别能够降低各个季节全球升温幅度的17%和10%左右.  相似文献   

全球气候模式对宁夏区域未来气候变化的情景模拟分析   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

杨侃  许吟隆  陈晓光  陈楠 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(5):629-637

利用多个全球气候模式(GCM)的情景模拟结果分析只考虑温室气体效应的IS92a GG情景和同时考虑温室气体效应和硫化物气溶胶辐射效应的IS92aGS情景以及SRESA2、B2情景下宁夏区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的可能变化,并进行不确定性分析。气候基准时段(1961~1990年)模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明,GCM对宁夏气候具有一定的模拟能力;整体上讲,GCM对地面气温的模拟值偏低,对降水量的模拟值偏高,其中ECHAM4和HadCM3对宁夏基准时段地面气温和降水量的模拟结果与观测比较接近。各GCM模拟值的平均结果显示,4种温室气体排放情景下21世纪宁夏区域气温持续升高,至21世纪末宁夏升温幅度可达4~6℃,与全国平均的增温幅度大致相当;与升温趋势相应的是降水量的增加,但降水变化呈现出很大的波动性,至21世纪末宁夏的降水变化幅度可达10%~40%。各个GCM模拟的宁夏气候变化的总趋势是一致的,但各模式在不同情景下模拟结果的差异很大,存在较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

The long-term trend of Bohai Sea ice in different emission scenarios     

Donglin Guo  Rui Li  Peng Zhao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(7):100-118

Based on a coupled ocean-sea ice model, this study investigates how changes in the mean state of the atmosphere in different CO_2 emission scenarios(RCP 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6) may affect the sea ice in the Bohai Sea, China,especially in the Liaodong Bay, the largest bay in the Bohai Sea. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, an abrupt change of the atmospheric state happens around 2070. Due to the abrupt change, wintertime sea ice of the Liaodong Bay can be divided into 3 periods: a mild decreasing period(2021–2060), in which the sea ice severity weakens at a nearconstant rate; a rapid decreasing period(2061–2080), in which the sea ice severity drops dramatically; and a stabilized period(2081–2100). During 2021–2060, the dates of first ice are approximately unchanged, suggesting that the onset of sea ice is probably determined by a cold-air event and is not sensitive to the mean state of the atmosphere. The mean and maximum sea ice thickness in the Liaodong Bay is relatively stable before 2060, and then drops rapidly in the following decade. Different from the RCP 8.5 scenario, atmospheric state changes smoothly in the RCP 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. In the RCP 6.0 scenario, the sea ice severity in the Bohai Sea weakens with time to the end of the twenty-first century. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the sea ice severity weakens with time until reaching a stable state around the 2070 s. In the RCP 2.6 scenario, the sea ice severity weakens until the2040 s, stabilizes from then, and starts intensifying after the 2080 s. The sea ice condition in the other bays of the Bohai Sea is also discussed under the four CO_2 emissions scenarios. Among atmospheric factors, air temperature is the leading one for the decline of the sea ice extent. Specific humidity also plays an important role in the four scenarios. The surface downward shortwave/longwave radiation and meridional wind only matter in certain scenarios, while effects from the zonal wind and precipitation are negligible.  相似文献