Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Molina  C. D. Lindholm 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(3):299-310

Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios.  相似文献   

Rigid‐plastic seismic design of reinforced concrete structures     

J. L. Domingues Costa  R. Bento  Vsevolod Levtchitch  M. P. Nielsen 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(1):55-76

In this paper a new seismic design procedure for Reinforced Concrete (R/C) structures is proposed—the Rigid‐Plastic Seismic Design (RPSD) method. This is a design procedure based on Non‐Linear Time‐ History Analysis (NLTHA) for systems expected to perform in the non‐linear range during a lifetime earthquake event. The theoretical background is the Theory of Plasticity (Rigid‐Plastic Structures). Firstly, a collapse mechanism is chosen and the corresponding stress field is made safe outside the regions where plastic behaviour takes place. It is shown that this allows the determination of the required structural strength with respect to a pre‐defined performance parameter using a rigid‐plastic response spectrum, which is characteristic of the ground motion alone. The maximum strength demand at any point is solely dependent on the intensity of the ground motion, which facilitates the task of distributing required strength throughout the structure. Any artificial considerations intended to adjust results according to empirical observations are avoided, which, from a conceptual point of view, is considered to be an advantage over other simplified design procedures for seismic design. The procedure is formulated using a step‐by‐step format followed by a design example of a 4‐storey‐R/C‐plane‐frame. Results are compared with refined NLTHA and found to be extremely encouraging. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10  

林而达  许吟隆  吴绍洪  Ju Hui  Ma Shiming 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(Z1):6-11

Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the adverse impact, therefore such measures should be incorporated into the medium-and long-term national economic and social development plans. Because China has done relatively limited research on impact assessment and our understanding of climate change is incomplete, the current impact assessment methodologies used and results obtained contain many uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties and develop effective and practical climate change adaptive measures in China, it is necessary to emphasize regional case studies on adaptive measures, enlarge the scope of climate change research, and strengthen the assessment of the impacts resulted from extreme weather/climate events.  相似文献   

GCM STUDIES ON ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA^*          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAO Zongci  LUO Yong  GAO Xuejie 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2000,14(2):247-256

Impacts of human activities on climate change as simulated by the general circulation models (GCMs)in China for the recent ten years have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The researches show that it might be getting warmer over China due to the greenhouse effects.The atmospheric circulation and precipitation also might be changed due to the greenhouse effects.The assessments and evaluations of the models over the globe and China have also been presented in this paper.  相似文献   

典型红壤丘陵区土地利用空间优化配置   总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21  

张红旗  李家永  牛栋 《地理学报》2003,58(5):668-676

选择具有红壤丘陵区典型特征的江西省泰和县千烟洲为研究区域,在分析当前土地利用结构并进行土地适宜性评价的基础上,依据2000年千烟洲试验站研究数据及农户调查资料,将GIS技术与线性规划模型有效地耦合起来,探讨实现典型红壤丘陵区各种具有特定数量、质量的农用土地资源在空间上最优配置的方法与技术。结果表明,优化方案从现状中牧业短缺的粮、果、林结构转化为较为完善的粮、果、牧、林结构,耕地资源利用结构也由重水轻旱、粮作为主、经作为辅的传统生产模式,转变为粮-经-饲并举的三元优化配置结构;同时,由果业和畜牧业共同支撑的优化方案的经济效益明显优于现状,在经济上更具稳定性和可持续性。  相似文献   

东北地区植被分布全球气候变化区域响应   总被引：26，自引：8，他引：18  

吴正方  靳英华  刘吉平  商丽娜  赵东升 《地理科学》2003,23(5):564-570

根据东北地区生态气候环境和生物地理规律对Holdridge生命地带分类系统进行修正,将东北地区植被分为寒温带湿润森林、寒温带潮湿森林、温带湿润森林、暖温带湿润森林、温带半湿润森林草甸草原、温带半湿润草甸草原、温带半干旱典型草原、暖温带半湿润草甸草原和暖温带半干旱典型草原等9 个生命地带并分析了其空间分布特征。运用大气环流模式分析东北地区由于温室气体增加导致的气候变化趋势。以此为基础评价东北地区植被分布的区域响应。全球气候变暖情景下,东北地区暖温带和温带范围明显扩大,而寒温带范围缩小甚至退出东北地区,植被分布界限显著北移;同时湿润区面积减少半湿润区和半干旱区扩大,导致森林面积缩小草原面积扩大。  相似文献   

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling          下载免费PDF全文

Toan Trinh  M. Levent Kavvas  Kei Ishida  Kara Carr  Noriaki Ohara 《水文研究》2017,31(16):2887-2901

Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region.  相似文献   

综合湿度和温度影响的中国未来热浪预估     

陈曦  李宁  黄承芳  刘佳伟  张正涛 《地理科学进展》2020,39(1):36-44

地面空气湿度直接影响人体驱散热负荷的效率,持续高温高湿天气将会严重影响人体健康。基于综合考虑温度和湿度协同作用的热胁迫指数——湿球黑球温度(WBGT)指数定义热浪,利用参考时期(1986—2005年)中国824个气象站点逐日平均气温和逐日相对湿度资料以及CMIP5多模式相应模拟数据,论文定量描述了未来时期(2076—2095年)不同排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)中国大陆地区可能遭遇的热浪事件的空间分布特征及其变化。研究结果表明：① 最有效的减排情景(RCP2.6)和高排放情景(RCP8.5)下中国大陆地区的平均热浪日数分别是参考时期的3.4倍和6.6倍,平均热浪强度(一年内所有热浪事件中日平均WBGT指数的最大值)也相对升高了1.6 ℃和4.9 ℃,未来时期RCP8.5情景下中国东部和南部地区的最高年均热浪强度甚至将达到40 ℃;② 虽然青藏高原地区的热浪强度等级低,但是未来时期热浪日数的增加幅度较为显著;③ 华南、长江中下游以及少数西南地区是综合考虑气温和湿度协同作用对人体热舒适的影响下,未来时期可能发生热浪最严重的地区,如果不考虑湿度要素的影响,那么将极有可能低估热浪在中国华南和东部等湿度较高地区的强度和影响。  相似文献   

分布式水文模型SWAT模型在新疆叶尔羌河流域的适用性研究     

迈尔丹江·米吉提 《地下水》2015,(4)

为定量分析SWAT模型在新疆叶尔羌流域径流模拟的适用性,以叶尔羌河卡群水文站以上集水区域为研究流域,基于卡群水文站2000-2012年水文数据,运用SWAT模型模拟了研究流域的径流量,并设定2种气候变化情景模式,定量分析不同气候变化情景模式对叶尔羌流域径流量的影响。研究结果表明:SWAT模型在叶尔羌河流域具有较好的适用性,模拟的径流深相对误差小于8%,确定性系数均达到0.75以上;在降水不变化的前提下,气温升高2℃,流域径流量增加6.28%;在气温不变前提下,降水量增加5%,流域径流量增加9.50%。研究成果对于新疆叶尔羌河流域水文模拟及预测提供参考价值。  相似文献   

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究——一个基于生态地理区域的研究(英文)     

赵东升  吴绍洪 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,(2)

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.  相似文献