Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine     

Nadine Junghans  Johannes Cullmann  Matthias Huss 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):981-993

Abstract

The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km²) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine.

Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993.  相似文献   

China's role in attaining the global 2°C target     

Kejun Jiang  Xing Zhuang  Ren Miao  Chenmin He 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):55-69

In the recent climate change negotiations it was declared that the increase in global temperature should be kept below 2°C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. China's CO₂ emissions from energy and cement processes already account for nearly 24% of global emissions, a trend that is expected to keep increasing. Thus the role of China in global GHG mitigation is crucial. A scenario analysis of China's CO₂ emissions is presented here and the feasibility of China reaching a low-carbon scenario is discussed. The results suggest that recent and continued technological progress will make it possible for China to limit its CO₂ emissions and for these emissions to peak before 2025 and therefore that the global 2°C target can be achieved.

Policy relevance

In signing the Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to the global 2°C target. Results from this article could be used to justify low-carbon development policies and negotiations. While many still doubt the feasibility of a low-carbon pathway to support the global 2°C target, the results suggest that such a pathway can be realistically achieved. This conclusion should increase confidence and guide the policy framework further to make possible China's low-carbon development. Related policies and measures, such as renewable energy development, energy efficiency, economic structure optimization, technology innovation, low-carbon investment, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) development, should be further enhanced. Furthermore, China can play a larger role in the international negotiations process. In the global context, the 2°C target could be reaffirmed and a global regime on an emissions mitigation protocol could be framed with countries’ emissions target up to 2050.  相似文献   

Stabilizing CO2 concentrations with incomplete international cooperation     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):355-376

Many stabilization scenarios have examined the implications of stabilization on the assumption that all regions and all sectors of all of the world's economies undertake emissions mitigations wherever and whenever it is cheapest to do so. This idealized assumption is just one of many ways in which emissions mitigation actions could play out globally, but not necessarily the most likely. This paper explores the implications of generic policy regimes that lead to stabilization of CO₂ concentrations under conditions in which non-Annex I regions delay emissions reductions and in which carbon prices vary across participating regions. The resulting stabilization scenarios are contrasted with the idealized results. Delays in the date by which non-Annex I regions begin to reduce emissions raise the price of carbon in Annex I regions relative to the price of carbon in Annex I in an idealized regime for any given CO₂ concentration limit. This effect increases the longer the delay in non-Annex I accession, the lower the non-Annex I carbon prices relative to the Annex I prices, and the more stringent the stabilization level. The effect of delay is very pronounced when CO₂ concentrations are stabilized at 450 ppmv, however the effect is much less pronounced at 550 ppmv and above. For long delays in non-Annex I accession, 450 ppmv stabilization levels become infeasible.  相似文献   

Towards a low-carbon economy: scenarios and policies for the UK     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):865-882

This article analyses the implications of long-term low-carbon scenarios for the UK, and against these it assesses both the current status and the required scope of the UK energy policy. The scenarios are generated using the well-established MARKAL (acronym for MARKet ALlocation) UK energy systems model, which has already been extensively used for UK policy analysis and support. The scenarios incorporate different levels of ambition for carbon reduction, ranging from 40% to 90% cuts from 1990's level by the year 2050, to shed insights into the options for achieving the UK's current legally binding target of an 80% cut by the same date. The scenarios achieve their carbon reductions through very different combinations of demand reduction (implying behaviour change) and implementation of low-carbon and energy efficiency technologies on both the supply and demand sides. In all cases, however, the costs of achieving the reductions are relatively modest. The ensuing policy analysis suggests that while the cuts are feasible both technically and economically and while a number of new policies have been introduced in order to achieve them, it is not yet clear whether these policies will deliver the required combination of both short- and long-term technology deployment, and behaviour change for the UK Government's targets to be achieved.  相似文献   

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios     

Paul A. Steenhof  Malcolm R. Hill 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):531-548

Abstract

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period.  相似文献   

How EU policies could reduce nutrient pollution in European inland and coastal waters     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Intensive agriculture and densely populated areas represent major sources of nutrient pollution for European inland and coastal waters, altering the aquatic ecosystems and affecting their capacity to provide ecosystem services and support economic activities. Ambitious water policies are in place in the European Union (EU) for protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems under the Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. This research quantified the current pressures of point and diffuse nitrogen and phosphorus emissions to European fresh and coastal waters (2005–2012), and analysed the effects of three policy scenarios of nutrient reduction: 1) the application of measures currently planned in the Rural Development Programmes and under the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWTD); 2) the full implementation of the UWWTD and the absence of derogations in the Nitrates Directive; 3) high reduction of nutrient, using best technologies in wastewaters treatment and optimal fertilisation in agriculture. The results of the study show that for the period 2005–2012, the nitrogen load to European seas was 3.3–4.1 TgN/y and the phosphorus load was 0.26–0.30 TgP/y. Policy measures supporting technological improvements (third scenario) could decrease the nutrient export to the seas up to 14% for nitrogen and 20% for phosphorus, improving the ecological status of rivers and lakes, but widening the nutrient imbalance in coastal ecosystems (i.e. increasing nitrogen availability with respect to phosphorus), affecting eutrophication. Further nutrient reductions could be possible by a combination of measures especially in the agricultural sector. However, without tackling current agricultural production and consumption system, the reduction might not be sufficient for achieving the goals of EU water policy in some regions. The study analysed the expected changes and the source contribution in different European regional seas, and highlights the advantages of addressing the land-sea dynamics, checking the coherence of measures taken under different policies.  相似文献   

An assessment of the performance of scenarios against historical global emissions for IPCC reports     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Long-term emissions scenarios have served as the primary basis for assessing future climate change and response strategies. Therefore, it is important to regularly reassess the relevance of emissions scenarios in light of changing global circumstances and compare them with long-term developments to determine if they are still plausible, considering the newest insights. Four scenario series, SA90, IS92, SRES, and RCP/SSP, were central in the scenario-based literature informing the five Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the sixth assessment cycle. Here we analyze the historical trends of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industry and emissions drivers between 1960 and 2017. We then compare the emission scenario series with historical trends for the period 1990–2017/2018. The results show that historical trends are quite consistent with medium scenarios in each series. As a result, they can be regarded as valid inputs for past and future analyses of climate change and impacts. Global CO2 emissions 1960–2018 (and 1990–2018) comprised six (and three) overall subperiods of emissions growth significantly higher and lower than average. Historically, CO2 emissions (in absolute numbers and growth rate) are tightly coupled with primary energy and indirectly with GDP. Global emissions generally followed a medium-high pathway, captured by “middle-of-the-road” scenario narratives in the earlier series, and by combinations of “global-sustainability” and “middle-of-the-road” narratives in the most recent series (SRES and SSP-baselines). Historical non-OECD trends were best captured by “rapid-growth” and “regional-competition” scenarios, while OECD trends were close to regional-sustainability and global-sustainability scenarios. Areas where the emissions scenarios captured the historical trends less well, are renewable and nuclear primary energy supply. The fact that the actual historical development is consistent with rapid-growth narratives in the non-OECD regions might have important implications for future greenhouse gas emissions and associated climatic change.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal change in landslide hazard by future climate change scenarios using probabilistic-based frequency ratio model     

Lee Moung-Jin  Song Won-Kyong  Won Joong-Sun  Park Inhye 《国际地球制图》2013,28(6):639-662

The aims of this study were to apply, verify and compare a frequency ratio model for landslide hazards, considering future climate change and using a geographic information system in Inje, Korea. Data for the future climate change scenario (A1B), topography, soil, forest, land cover and geology were collected, processed and compiled in a spatial database. The probability of landslides in the study area in target years in the future was then calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by a daily rainfall threshold. Landslide hazard maps were developed for the two study areas, and the frequency ratio for one area was applied to the other area as a cross-check of methodological validity. Verification results for the target years in the future were 82.32–84.69%. The study results, showing landslide hazards in future years, can be used to help develop landslide management plans.  相似文献   

Exploring spatial data uncertainties in land‐use change scenarios     

N. Dendoncker  C. Schmit  M. Rounsevell 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1013-1030

This paper evaluates errors and uncertainties in representing landscapes that arise from different data rasterization methods, spatial resolutions, and downscaled land‐use change (LUC) scenarios. A vector LU dataset for Luxembourg (minimum mapping unit: 0.15 ha; year 2000) was used as the baseline reference map. This map was rasterized at three spatial resolutions using three cell class assignment methods. The landscape composition and configuration of these maps were compared. Four alternative scenarios of future LUC were also generated for the three resolutions using existing LUC scenarios and a statistical downscaling method creating 37 maps of LUC for the year 2050. These maps were compared in terms of composition and spatial configuration using simple metrics of landscape fragmentation and an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Differences in landscape composition and configuration between the three cell class assignment methods and the three spatial resolutions were found to be at least as large as the differences between the LUC scenarios. This occurred in spite of the large LUC projected by the scenarios. This demonstrates the importance of the rasterization method and the level of aggregation as a contribution to uncertainty when developing future LUC scenarios and in analysing landscape structure in ecological studies.  相似文献   

Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP     

Fan  Zemeng 《地理学报(英文版)》2022,32(3):421-440

Journal of Geographical Sciences - How to simulate land-cover change, driven by climate change and human activity, is not only a hot issue in the field of land-cover research but also in the field...  相似文献