BJ-RUC产品在小区供暖供回水温度预报的应用研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李迅  冯涛  丁德平  谢庄 《气象》2015,41(2):234-239

利用气象部门快速更新的BJ-RUC(Beijing-Rapid UpdateCycle)数值预报系统获得的24 h逐时的室外温度预报资料,应用能量平衡原理,建立建筑物热损失方程和供热量方程,从而推导出室外温度和室内温度、供水、回水温度的预报模型。用此模型对2010年3月1—15日期间的供、回水温度进行预报模拟,与北京市海园物业供热单位实况值进行对比分析。检验结果表明,该模型模拟的室内温度与设计要求的室内温度(20℃)之间的均方根误差为0.25℃,海园物业室内温度监测点数值与20℃之间的均方根误差为1.53℃。模拟的供、回水温度与海园物业监测点供水温度的均方根误差分别为3.69℃和3.80℃。  相似文献   

上海“7·31”局地强对流快速更新同化数值模拟研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王晓峰  王平  张蕾  许晓林  李佳 《高原气象》2015,34(1):124-136

利用雷达、自动气象站、飞机观测(AMDAR)和探空等多种观测资料,采用中尺度数值预报模式WRF和资料同化系统ADAS,对2011年7月31日上海局地强对流过程进行了快速更新同化数值试验。结果表明,数值试验模拟降水的发生时间、落区和随时间演变与实况基本一致,较好再现了海陆热力差异导致上海南北两支海陆风爆发、形成低层辐合线,在热岛效应的叠加下进一步增强,继而引发局地强对流的过程。快速更新同化技术可有效延长此次过程的预警时效,这为城市强对流业务预报提供了新的思路。  相似文献   

浅析野外金的快速分析方法     

高翠芬 《山东地质》2010,(10):44-47

该文选择野外快速测金的2种方法：氢醌容量法和目视比色法,从原理、试样分析、富集方法、吸附机理、解脱方式、试剂及分析手续几方面进行对比分析,着重对氢醌容量法作研究和完善工作。针对通过比对实验,确立分析测试条件,选择确定了快速、简便、经济的测试流程,并应用于样品测试,提高了检测速度。  相似文献   

南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件气候特征及其年际变率     

汪浩  王静  郑佳喻 《热带海洋学报》2022,41(1):94-105

利用美国联合台风预警中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集、美国国家海洋和大气管理局的扩展重构海表温度数据、全球海洋数据同化系统的温度、盐度数据及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心的再分析资料, 分析了1981—2019年南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件的气候特征和年际变率。结果表明, 南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件产生频率呈现单峰分布, 主要产生在每年的12月至次年4月。南印度洋热带气旋增强事件的产生位置呈带状分布, 其中3个高值中心分别位于马达加斯加岛东北海域、南印度洋中部海域和澳大利亚西北海域, 这主要是由于热带气旋热潜和垂直风切变两个大尺度环境变量决定的。年际变率方面, 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对南印度洋热带气旋增强事件产生频率的调制作用是不对称的, 厄尔尼诺年与拉尼娜年南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件均减少, 但使其减少的物理机制不同。厄尔尼诺年, 热带气旋快速增强事件减少主要是较高的垂直风切变造成的; 拉尼娜年, 热带气旋快速增强事件减少主要是由于热带气旋热潜的降低, 而海表温度、垂直风切变和相对湿度也存在一定贡献。  相似文献   

Episodic Mesozoic thickening and reworking of the North China Archean lower crust correlated to the fast-spreading Pacific plate     

《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2014

A central target in Earth sciences is to understand the processes controlling the stabilization and destruction of Archean continents. The North China craton (NCC) has in part lost its dense crustal root after the Mesozoic, and thus it is a key region to test models of crust–mantle differentiation and subsequent evolution of the continental crust. However, the timing and mechanisms responsible for its crustal thickening and reworking have been long debated. Here we report the Early Cretaceous Yinan (eastern NCC) adakitic granites, for which major/trace elemental models demonstrate that they are complementary to the analogy of the documented eclogitic relicts within the NCC. Based on their Late Archean inherited zircons, depleted mantle Nd model ages of ∼2.8 Ga, large negative ε_Nd(t) values (−36.7 to −25.3) and strongly radiogenic initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7178–0.7264), we suggest that the Yinan adakitic granites were potentially formed by the dehydration melting of a thickened Archean mica-bearing mafic lower crust during the Early Cretaceous (ca. 124 Ma), corresponding to a major period (117–132 Ma) of the NCC Mesozoic intrusive magmatism. Combined previous results, it is shown that the thickening and reworking of the North China Archean lower crust occurred largely as two short-lived episodes at 155–180 Ma and 117–132 Ma, rather than a gradual, secular event. These correlated temporally with the superfast-spreading Pacific plate during the Mesozoic. The synchroneity of these events suggests rapid plate motion of the Pacific plate driving the episodic NCC crustal thickening and reworking, resulting in dense eclogitic residues that became gravitationally unstable. The onset of lithospheric delamination occurred when upwelling asthenosphere heated the base of lower crust to form coeval felsic magmas with or without involvement of juvenile mantle material. Collectively, the circum-Pacific massive crustal production could be attributed to the unusually rapid motion of Pacific at 155–180 Ma and 117–132 Ma.  相似文献   

Does smallholder maize intensification reduce deforestation? Evidence from Zambia     

《Global Environmental Change》2020

Increasing food production to meet growing demand while reducing tropical deforestation is a critical sustainability challenge. This is especially true in sub-Saharan Africa, which faces serious food insecurity issues and where smallholder farming is the main driver of forest conversion. Competing theories imply opposite predictions as to whether deforestation increases or decreases with smallholder agricultural intensification, which can improve food security by increasing crop yields per area cultivated. This research provides new empirical evidence on the association between deforestation and smallholders’ use of modern inputs, in particular inorganic fertilizer on maize and improved maize seeds, using Zambia as a case study. We analyze this association nationwide in a spatially disaggregated manner at the lowest administrative level using machine learning-based small area estimation, which makes use of detailed nationally representative surveys on smallholder farm households for 2011 and 2014, and census data to statistically predict modern inputs use country-wide for 2011, when average maize yields were 1.28 tons/ha. Then, we evaluate the association between improved maize seed and fertilizer inputs and subsequent deforestation, while controlling for key geospatial covariates. The results support the land-sparing hypothesis, finding that smallholder farmers’ use of improved maize seed is negatively associated with deforestation on non-acidic (pH ≥ 5.5) soils, an effect that is enhanced by complementary inorganic fertilizer use. Fertilizer use on its own, however, is weakly associated with increased deforestation. Sustainable intensification via use of improved seeds on adequately fertile soils and improving soil health appears compatible with reducing both deforestation and food insecurity.  相似文献   

Estimating the global potential of water harvesting from successful case studies     

《Global Environmental Change》2020

Water harvesting has been widely applied in different social-ecological contexts, proving to be a valuable approach to sustainable intensification of agriculture. Global estimates of the potential of water harvesting are generally based on purely biophysical assessments and mostly neglect the socioeconomic dimension of agriculture. This neglect becomes a critical factor for the feasibility and effectiveness of policy and funding efforts to mainstream this practice. This study uses archetype analysis to systematically identify social-ecological regions worldwide based on >160 successful cases of local water harvesting implementation. We delineate six archetypal regions which capture the specific social-ecological conditions of the case studies. The archetypes cover 19% of current global croplands with hotspots in large portions of East Africa and Southeast Asia. We estimate that the adoption of water harvesting in these cropland areas can increase crop production up to 60–100% in Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania and India. The results of this study can complement conventional biophysical analysis on the potential of these practices and guide policy development at global and regional scales. The methodological approach can be also replicated at finer scales to guide the improvement of rainfed agricultural.  相似文献   

东风和西风切变环境下西北太平洋热带气旋快速增强特征的对比   总被引：8，自引：6，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王伟  余锦华 《大气科学学报》2013,36(3):337-345

利用1980-2009年美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)整编的热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)最佳路径资料,定义西北太平洋TC 24 h强度变化达到总体样本96%累积概率的变化值,即35 kn作为TC快速增强的阈值。根据NCEP/NCAR资料将200~850 hPa之间 TC所处的环境纬向风切变(wind shear,WS)划分为东风切变(east wind shear,EWS)和西风切变(west wind shear,WWS)。对比了EWS和WWS环境下快速增强热带气旋(rapid intensification tropical cyclones,RITC)的统计和大尺度环境合成场特征,结果表明,近70%的TC快速增强发生在东风切变环境下。TC快速增强概率最高的月份在9月,初始强度区间为[65,75) kn。大的EWS下,850 hPa有来自南海地区的西南气流为RITC输送充沛水汽,500 hPa、200 hPa高压势力强但脊线位置偏北,RITC流出层温度低于-79 ℃,垂直结构上底层的辐合与高层的辐散也相对较强。大WWS下,850 hPa的水汽主要为来自西北太平洋的东南气流,500 hPa副热带高压断裂为几个分散的中心,200 hPa辐散相对较弱,RITC合成位置位于副热带高压西北侧的西风气流,流出层温度约-76 ℃。  相似文献   

Characteristics of rapid giant landslides in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Baoping?WenEmail author  Sijing?Wang  Enzhi?Wang  Jianmin?Zhang 《Landslides》2004,1(4):247-261

Factual data for 70 rapid, giant landslides since 1900 show that the occurrence of these landslides was largely predisposed by tectonics, geological structures, lithology and topography, and often triggered by rainfall and earthquakes. In terms of mobile behavior, the giant landslides can be classified into three types: slides, slide-flows and flows. It is found that each type of landslide was constrained to certain geologic and topographic regimes. There are good correlations between kinematic parameters of landslides and slope geometries, which confirm the important role played by topographical condition in the mobile behavior of landslides. Moreover, it is also found that each type of landslide presents distinct geotechnical characteristics in terms of nature of the slip zone and properties of sliding mass. Brief analyses of five typical cases illustrate that landslide mechanisms can be conceptually depicted by failure mechanisms of their slip zones prior to onset of movement and following energy conversion during movement. Problems and questions related to experience in China suggest that comprehensive and systematic investigation and study on rapid giant landslides are urgently needed.  相似文献   

Turbulent Intensities and Velocity Spectra for Bare and Forested Gentle Hills: Flume Experiments   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Davide Poggi  Gabriel G. Katul 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,129(1):25-46

To investigate how velocity variances and spectra are modified by the simultaneous action of topography and canopy, two flume experiments were carried out on a train of gentle cosine hills differing in surface cover. The first experiment was conducted above a bare surface while the second experiment was conducted within and above a densely arrayed rod canopy. The velocity variances and spectra from these two experiments were compared in the middle, inner, and near-surface layers. In the middle layer, and for the canopy surface, longitudinal and vertical velocity variances () were in phase with the hill-induced spatial mean velocity perturbation (Δu) around the so-called background state (taken here as the longitudinal mean at a given height) as predicted by rapid distortion theory (RDT). However, for the bare surface case, and remained out of phase with Δu by about L/2, where L is the hill half-length. In the canopy layer, wake production was a significant source of turbulent energy for , and its action was to re-align velocity variances with Δu in those layers, a mechanism completely absent for the bare surface case. Such a lower ‘boundary condition’ resulted in longitudinal variations of to be nearly in phase with Δu above the canopy surface. In the inner and middle layers, the spectral distortions by the hill remained significant for the background state of the bare surface case but not for the canopy surface case. In particular, in the inner and middle layers of the bare surface case, the effective exponents derived from the locally measured power spectra diverged from their expected  − 5/3 value for inertial subrange scales. These departures spatially correlated with the hill surface. However, for the canopy surface case, the spectral exponents were near  − 5/3 above the canopy though the minor differences from  − 5/3 were also correlated with the hill surface. Inside the canopy, wake production and energy short-circuiting resulted in significant departures from  − 5/3. These departures from  − 5/3 also appeared correlated with the hill surface through the wake production contribution and its alignment with Δu. Moreover, scales commensurate with Von Karman street vorticies well described wake production scales inside the canopy, confirming the important role of the mean flow in producing wakes. The spectra inside the canopy on the lee side of the hill, where a negative mean flow delineated a recirculation zone, suggested that the wake production scales there were ‘broader’ when compared to their counterpart outside the recirculation zone. Inside the recirculation zone, there was significantly more energy at higher frequencies when compared to regions outside the recirculation zone.  相似文献