Robustness of spatial ranges of environmental chemicals to changes in model dimension     

H. Held 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2003,17(1-2):20-41

 A comparison is made between a circular and a more adequate spherical reaction-diffusion multi-media mass balance model. This comparison adds new aspects to ongoing debates about more effective assessments of potentially harmful substances including persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The circular model serves as a paradigm in investigations of persistence and spatial range of non-polar chemicals. An analytic solution of the spherical model is presented. It is utilized in order to establish circular spatial ranges as versatile approximations of their spherical counterparts for most cases. Deviations in the few exceptions are demonstrated as playing a minor role compared to sensitivities against parameter uncertainties which characterize these exceptional cases as well. The sensitivities are fundamentally linked to the multi-scale nature of the underlying system. Finally, the insensitivity of spatial ranges with respect to dimension – circle versus sphere – is further secured by extensive studies of the role of the mode of entry for which a set of rules is established. Present address: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany e-mail: held@pik-potsdam.de The author would like to thank B. H. Hawkins, H. A. Schweers, and M. Str?be for helpful comments.  相似文献   

Safety culture and hazard risk perception of Australian and New Zealand maritime pilots   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R.M. Darbra  J.F.E. Crawford  C.W. Haley  R.J. Morrison 《Marine Policy》2007,31(6):736-745

A survey of the safety culture and hazard risk perception has been carried out involving 77 maritime pilots around Australia and New Zealand, representing more than the 20% of the maritime pilots in each country, in proportional geographic distribution. In 82% of the cases, interviews were carried out face-to-face, based on a questionnaire designed to be completed in less than 1 hour. Questions on 4 different aspects were asked, relating to each pilot's professional background, safety culture and perception of risks, navigation and pilotage hazards and their perception of the pilot's role. The responses indicated that there are issues with regulator identification, commercial pressures on pilots in some locations, incident reporting mechanisms and feedback, training opportunities and improved bridge resource management. In addition to reviewing comments made by pilots, the paper also presents recommendations for consideration in improving operational performance and safety of navigation in ports and regulated waterways. These recommendations can be used by regulators to improve their performance concerning pilotage matters and understand pilots’ concerns.  相似文献   

Metal sorption onto soils loaded with urban particulate matter     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2015,75(1):29-33

The potential effect of urban particulate matter (PM) accumulation on metal sorption onto two contrasting soils (Chernozem and Fluvisol) was investigated in a batch sorption experiment. While the Freundlich isotherms did not indicate any effect of PM addition to the soils, the Langmuir isotherm allowed us to estimate the potential behaviour of the PM in the soil. The PM added to the Chernozem did not lead to substantial changes in sorption of Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn. On the contrary, the presence of PM in the Fluvisol increased the number of potential sorption sites in the soil. However, the results of the approximation showed a lower affinity of Cd, Mn and Ni for the Fluvisol and a better stability and a lower bioavailability of these elements in the Chernozem. In the case of Pb and Cu, no significant changes were observed in PM-enriched soils regardless of the soil properties.  相似文献   

滑坡对降雨的动态响应及其监测预警研究     

许旭堂  简文彬 《工程地质学报》2015,23(2):203-210

以福建德化县彭坑滑坡为例,基于非饱和土力学理论,结合滑坡实际监测数据,利用有限元法对坡体在雨水入渗条件下的渗流、变形特性和稳定性进行计算和分析,研究滑坡对降雨的动态响应和不同工况下安全系数和位移的关系。结果表明:滑体结构松散,易于雨水入渗,改变基质吸力空间分布,弱化岩土体参数; 持续降雨会使地下水位上升,坡脚发生变形,牵引坡体后缘产生拉裂,直至在降雨期间产生以非饱和区域为主的滑坡。强降雨初期,边坡安全系数下降较快,易发生滑坡; 雨停后安全系数会因雨水持续下渗而进一步降低,应注意雨后滑坡的产生; 同样水分在不同坡体部位对稳定性影响不同,安全系数有消有涨,存在时空效应。最后为反映地下水位线和降雨条件变化对边坡产生危害的程度,提出危险系数概念,建立危险系数与增量位移的关系,实现边坡测点位移变化的阶段式预警。研究结果和方法可为类似工程的治理和监测预警提供有意义的参考。  相似文献   

Spatial distribution,pollution characterization and health risk assessment of selected metals in groundwater of Lahore,Pakistan     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2021,81(1):125692

Groundwater pollution is a major global environmental issue especially in the large cities and trace metals are considered as most important aquatic pollutants. The present study is based on the measurement and characterization of various physicochemical parameters (pH, EC, TDS, DO, alkalinity, hardness, and chloride), major cations (Ca, Mg, Na and K) and selected trace metals (Sr, Li, Fe, Zn, Cu, Co, Mn, Ag, Cd, Cr, Ni, and Pb) in the groundwater of Lahore, Pakistan during summer and winter (2017–18) seasons. Groundwater is the main source of drinking water in urban areas of Lahore. Seasonal comparison of the data indicated that majority of the metals showed relatively higher concentrations during winter than summer. Most of the metals exhibited significant spatial variability during both seasons; relatively higher metal levels were found in the old settlements and thickly populated areas of the city. Average concentrations of Pb, Ni, Cd and Co in the groundwater were found to be higher than the national and international guideline values. Factor analysis and cluster analysis revealed major anthropogenic contributions of Ni, Co, Cd, Cu, Cr and Pb in the groundwater while rest of the metals showed mixed and/or natural contributions. Evaluation of human health risks for the metal contents in groundwater revealed that Pb, Co, Ni and Cd were associated with significantly higher non-carcinogenic risks (HQ_ing > 1); the calculated risk for children was considerably higher than the adults. Moreover, the carcinogenic risk associated with Ni, Cr, Cd and Pb exceeded the safe limits. The present study revealed significantly higher anthropic pollutants in the groundwater which imposed considerable risks to human; therefore, it is recommended to implement immediate remedial measures to ensure safe drinking water.  相似文献   

德清县雷电活动时空分布特征及雷击灾害风险区划          下载免费PDF全文

顾丽华  蔡云泉李嘉鹏李利松  万奎 《气象与环境学报》2012,28(4):73-78

利用近4 a德清县内地闪数据,采用网格法绘制地闪密度图,并对近40a的德清雷暴日数据进行分析,同时对雷击灾害风险进行区划研究。结果表明：20世纪70-80年代德清县雷暴日较90年代和2000年以后偏多|1971-2000年雷暴日呈现下降的趋势,但2000年后雷暴日数呈上升趋势|除12月以外每月均有雷暴发生,7月和8月是雷暴日高发期|春夏季雷暴日较多,秋季次之,冬季较少发生雷暴。雷电主要出现在12-13时和15-16时。至2010年,德清县大部分乡镇的地闪密度均大于4次/km²,落雷密集区面积逐年增加,高密集区有向山区和东北部乡镇扩散的趋势。落雷的分布与地形有密切关系,西北部高海拔山区和海拔在50-200m的低坡丘陵地带落雷密度较大。德清县莫干山至对河口水库一带、县城武康北部、洛舍和钟管镇交界一带及雷甸镇的西南部均为雷电灾害高风险区。  相似文献   

Characterization of Risks in Coastal Zones: A Review     

Mireille Escudero Castillo  Edgar Mendoza Baldwin  Rodolfo Silva Casarin  Gregorio Posada Vanegas  Maritza Arganis Juaréz 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2012,40(9):894-905

Interest in sustainable development for the natural, socio‐economic, and cultural resources of coastal zones is growing worldwide. On the other hand, the range of threats to coastal zones increasingly posed by hydro‐meteorological natural phenomena has led to a trend in the analysis and assessment of risks to these areas. The available literature dealing with coastal risk assessment is quite wide, focusing mainly on the risk evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion resulting directly from the occurrence of extreme natural events. The risk assessment methodologies are usually specific to the conditions and available data of each country, society or location, though most have evolved to assess the risk concept more precisely and rigorously. However, there are still very few studies that present feasible and effective methodologies, which lead to the effective integration of risk analysis at all levels. In Mexico coastal risk analysis has barely begun despite our extensive coastline, which is highly vulnerable to the threat of tropical cyclones. This paper aims to give a broad view of the risk assessment methodologies which already exist, in order to provide a starting point for future efforts in Mexico and elsewhere.  相似文献   

Microbial Quality in Coastal Waters of Dardanelles in Relation to the Pollution Sources and Transport Pathways     

Cafer Turkmen  Onder Ayyildiz  Mehmet Akbulut  Hasan Kaya 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2012,40(12):1320-1325

The coastal water quality of Çanakkale Dardanelles (Turkey) was assessed based on bacteriological data and physical–chemical parameters. Total coliform (TC), fecal coliform (FC), and enterococci (ENT) bacteria along with physicochemical parameters were measured monthly up to a year at 12 different sampling sites located through both coastal lines of the strait. The fecal bacteria were abounded at several sampling sites such as B1, B3, G3, and G4 due to direct wastewater discharges and septic leakages or overloading. Storm water runoff and sediment resuspension were important pathways for the transport of coliform and ENT bacteria to the Dardanelles, as the region receives high precipitation and strong winds for most part of the year. The values of pH, temperature, and salinity were in typical ranges for the studied area. The microbiological and physicochemical data were correlated individually and in combination. The best fit correlations for bacterial data were attained between TC and FC or TC and ENT (R = 0.67 or ?0.68), while those for the combined data were obtained for TC with temperature (R = 0.94) and TC with salinity (R = ? 0.70).  相似文献   

中国大陆地壳地震震中分布的卫星磁异常约束   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

魏荣强  于磊 《地球物理学报》2012,55(8):2643-2650

陆壳中的地震更危险,但其分布更具有弥散性,尤其在中国大陆地区;因此可靠且易用的地震警示信息显得非常重要.目前这类信息主要来自历史地震目录,大地测量及构造等资料,还需要补充其它的地学资料.本文提出一种来自卫星地壳磁场的约束.对于中国大陆的壳内地震(M_S≥5.0),研究表明其大都(80％以上)位于卫星地壳磁场的垂向磁感应强度分量的零等值线上或附近,并且理论上可以用一作用于半无限磁弹性平面中的集中力所产生的磁场分布来进行相应解释.尽管存在许多不确定因素,这种新的独立于传统资料的约束,提供了更为详细的地震警示性信息.同时,在缺少历史地震目录,大地测量及构造资料的地区,这种约束可作为一种先导性的监测信息加以使用.  相似文献   

A contribution to risk analysis for leakage through abandoned wells in geological CO₂ storage     

Andreas Kopp  P.J. Binning  K. Johannsen  R. Helmig  H. Class 《Advances in water resources》2010

The selection and the subsequent design of a subsurface CO₂ storage system are subject to considerable uncertainty. It is therefore important to assess the potential risks for health, safety and environment. This study contributes to the development of methods for quantitative risk assessment of CO₂ leakage from subsurface reservoirs. The amounts of leaking CO₂ are estimated by evaluating the extent of CO₂ plumes after numerically simulating a large number of reservoir realizations with a radially symmetric, homogeneous model. To conduct the computationally very expensive simulations, the ‘CO₂ Community Grid’ was used, which allows the execution of many parallel simulations simultaneously. The individual realizations are set up by randomly choosing reservoir properties from statistical distributions. The statistical characteristics of these distributions have been calculated from a large reservoir database, holding data from over 1200 reservoirs. An analytical risk equation is given, allowing the calculation of average risk due to multiple leaky wells with varying distance in the surrounding of the injection well. The reservoir parameters most affecting risk are identified. Using these results, the placement of an injection well can be optimized with respect to risk and uncertainty of leakage. The risk and uncertainty assessment can be used to determine whether a site, compared to others, should be considered for further investigations or rejected for CO₂ storage.  相似文献