IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.  相似文献   

中国大陆科学钻探工程主孔榴辉岩原岩研究及其成因指示          下载免费PDF全文

叶景艳  胡建  汤倩 《江苏地质》2013,37(1):1-16

榴辉岩是造山带中最为常见的高级变质岩石,无论是自身还是其原岩均蕴含着丰富的地球动力学信息。以中国大陆科学钻探工程主孔0～2000m范围内揭露的榴辉岩为对象,按其与围岩接触关系,划分为与片麻岩类共生的榴辉岩、与超基性岩毗邻的榴辉岩以及与超基性岩共生的榴辉岩3种类型。据此对比分析了此3类榴辉岩的地球化学组成的差异,提出了这些岩石的原岩可能是由单一岩浆房岩浆经堆晶及分离结晶作用演化而来的基性—超基性杂岩体,物质来源主要为富集地幔物质的部分熔融,其构造环境应位于洋壳对大陆俯冲的消减带,但并非岛弧环境,应是弧后拉张岩浆作用的产物。  相似文献   

民乐-山丹6.1级地震短期预报的科学总结   总被引：4，自引：10，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

杨立明  王兰民 《地震工程学报》2004,26(1):1-9

系统总结了民乐-山丹6．1级地震孕育的地震环境、中短期背景、短期阶段异常综合特征等。在此基础上结合祁连山地震带短期阶段地震异常的共性特征，论述了民乐-山丹6．1级地震短期预报的主要依据和科学决策，并对有关判定中的思路、方法、难点及问题等进行了讨论。  相似文献