单多普勒天气雷达反演降水粒子垂直速度Ⅰ：算法分析     

周生辉  魏鸣  张培昌  徐洪雄  赵畅 《气象学报》2014,72(4):760-771

针对多普勒雷达风场反演的体积速度处理(Volume Velocity Processing,VVP)方法中系数矩阵的病态问题,从数学上进行了分析和论证,对反演的误差进行了敏感性分析,并对垂直速度的求解方程作了改进。系数矩阵的条件数将随着待反演参量的不同而差别很大,通常的处理方法是舍弃量级较小的参量,通过对误差范数的分析,证明这种处理尽管存在模型误差,但能够降低求解难度和结果误差。对系数矩阵病态原因的分析发现,系数矩阵矢量的线性相关造成了矩阵奇异,当合并或舍弃线性相关项时,待反演参量会受模型误差的影响,并且这种模型误差的大小并不仅与待反演参量的量级有关,而且随着位置的不同而改变,但是部分待参量仍然可以保持准确值。在对VVP算法误差分析的基础上,分析并验证了舍弃部分参量时的反演误差,改进的算法为准确反演降水粒子的垂直速度提供了理论基础。  相似文献   

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment     

Pepijn de Vries  Jacqueline E. Tamis  Edwin M. Foekema  Chris Klok  Albertinka J. Murk 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO₂ levels and related considerations of geological CO₂ storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO₂ levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.  相似文献   

Comparative performances of eggs and embryos of sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus) in toxicity bioassays used for assessment of marine sediment quality     

《Marine pollution bulletin》2013,71(1-2):204-209

The potential toxicity of sediments from various ports was assessed by means of two different liquid-phase toxicity bioassays (acute and chronic) with embryos and eggs of sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Performances of embryos and eggs of P. lividus in these bioassays were compared for their interchangeable applicability in integrated sediment quality assessment. The obtained endpoints (percentages of normally developed plutei and fertilized eggs) were linked to physical and chemical properties of sediments and demonstrated dependence on sediment contamination. The endpoints in the two bioassays were strongly correlated and generally exhibited similar tendency throughout the samples. Therein, embryos demonstrated higher sensitivity to elutriate exposure, compared to eggs. It was concluded that these tests could be used interchangeably for testing toxicity of marine sediments. Preferential use of any of the bioassays can be determined by the discriminatory capacity of the test or vulnerability consideration of the test subject to the surrounding conditions.  相似文献   

Marine spatial planning and oil spill risk analysis: Finding common grounds     

Catarina Frazão Santos  Jaqueline Michel  Mário Neves  João Janeiro  Francisco Andrade  Michael Orbach 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

A flow of key information links marine spatial planning (MSP) and oil spill risk analysis (OSRA), two distinct processes needed to achieve true sustainable management of coastal and marine areas. OSRA informs MSP on areas of high risk to oil spills allowing a redefinition of planning objectives and the relocation of activities to increase the ecosystem’s overall utility and resilience. Concomitantly, MSP continuously generates a large amount of data that is vital to OSRA. The Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) mapping system emerges as an operational tool to implement the MSP–OSRA link. Given the high level of commonalities between ESI and MSP data (both in biophysical and human dimensions), ESI tools (both paper maps and dynamic GIS-based product) are easily developed to further inform MSP and oil spill risk management. Finally, several other benefits from implementing the MSP–OSRA link are highlighted.  相似文献   

Modelling a discrete spatial response using generalized linear mixed models: application to Lyme disease vectors     

Abhik Das  Subhash R. Lele  Gregory E. Glass  Timothy Shields  Jonathan Patz 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(2):151-166

Predicting disease risk by identifying environmental factors responsible for the geographical distribution of disease vectors can help target control strategies and optimize preventive measures. In this study we present a hierarchical approach to model the distribution of Lyme disease ticks as a function of environmental factors. We use the Poisson framework natural for count data while allowing for spatial correlations. To help identify environmental factors that best explain tick abundance, we develop an intuitive procedure for covariate selection in the spatial context. These methods could be useful in analysing effects of environmental and climatological changes on the distribution of disease vectors, and the spatial extrapolation of vector abundance under such scenarios.  相似文献   

Observations and modeling of incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopies in the west Tianshan Mountains,China   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Heng Lu  Wen-shou Wei  Ming-zhe Liu  Xi Han  Wen Hong 《山地科学学报》2014,11(5):1138-1153

Forest canopy reduces shortwave radiation and increases the incoming longwave radiation to snowpacks beneath forest canopies. Furthermore, the effect of forest canopy may be changed by complex topography. In this paper, we measured and simulated the incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest at different canopy openness in the west Tianshan Mountains, China(43°16'N, 84°24'E) during spring 2013. A sensitivity study was conducted to explore the way that terrain influenced the incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopies. In the simulation model, measurement datasets, including air temperature, incoming shortwave radiation above canopy, and longwave radiation enhanced by adjacent terrain, were applied to calculate the incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopy. The simulation results were consistent with the measurements on hourly scale and daily scale. The effect of longwave radiation enhanced by terrain was important than that of shortwave radiation above forest canopy with different openness except the 20% canopy openness. The longwave radiation enhanced due to adjacent terrain increases with the slope increase and temperature rise. When air temperature(or slope) is relatively low, thelongwave radiation enhanced by adjacent terrain is not sensitive to slope(or air temperature), but the sensitivity increases with the decrease of snow cover area on sunny slope. The effect of longwave radiation is especially sensitive when the snow cover on sunny slope melts completely. The effect of incoming shortwave radiation reflected by adjacent terrain on incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopies is more slight than that of the enhanced longwave radiation.  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of influencing parameters on slit-type barrier performance against debris flow using 3D-based numerical approach     

Minseop Kim  Seungrae Lee  Tae-Hyuk Kwon  Shin-Kyu Choi  Jun-Seo Jeon 《国际泥沙研究》2021,36(1):50-62

Extreme rainfall-induced debris flow can be catastrophic to an urban area,and installation of slit-type barriers can prevent such damage while minimizing negative impact on environments.However,the performance of slit-type barriers against debris flows remains poorly identified partly due to the innate complexity in interactions between debris flow and solid structure.This paper investigated the flow behaviors of debris affected by slit-type barriers using the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)method,in which the numerical model based on the volume of fluid method was verified using the physical modeling results.The sensitivity analysis was performed by building metamodels to determine the primary parameters influencing the barrier performance against debris flows among various variables,in which the effect of input properties and design parameters,particularly the soil concentration in fluidized debris,initial velocity and volume of debris,the barrier height,and the opening ratio,was evaluated from the perspectives of the flow energy reduction and debris trapping.The initial velocity and volume of debris were found to play a significant role in determining the debris flow characteristics.A decrease in the opening ratio in the channel primarily facilitated the energy reduction and trapping due to the reduced opening size.However,the barrier height exhibited a limited effect when the height was sufficiently high to block the debris flow volume.In addition,it was observed that the double barrier system effectively increased the energy reduction while keeping the benefit of open-type barrier.The developed simulation method and obtained results provide an effective tool and an insight that can contribute to an optimum design of the debris-flow barrier.  相似文献   

Sensitivity Tests of an Energy Balance Model to Choice of Stability Functions and Measurement Accuracy     

Fran?oise?Gellens-MeulenberghsEmail author 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,115(3):453-471

Sensible (H) and latent (L_vE) heat fluxes are obtained by a combined energy budget – similarity model applied to observations from Melle in Belgium and Cabauw in The Netherlands. The sensitivity to both the stability functions and the accuracy of input data is investigated. In a first step, fluxes are calculated for a selection of stability functions and compared to values obtained with pre-defined (reference) functions. For the diurnal fluxes higher than 10 W m⁻² in 1996 at Melle, the root-mean-square rmsreaches 9 W m⁻² for H and 6 W m⁻² for L_vE, depending on the chosen functions. A lesser sensitivity is obtained at Cabauw and can be explained by lower absolute values of the stability parameter ζ (L involving the Obukhov length) mainly induced by higher mean wind speeds. Different stability bins are also considered. It is concluded that a more accurate assessment of the stability functions is already desirable for absolute values of L above a few metres. These values are not so scarce at Melle and should be captured in the future by an increasing number of new developing long-term measurement stations. In a second step, a statistical approach is proposed with errors depicted by both systematic biases and random fluctuations represented by means of Gaussian distributions. The results show that very accurate measurements are needed in order to maintain the mean annual value of the bias and rms below 5–10 W m⁻², and thus to allow the discrimination between the sensitivity to errors on input data and to the stability functions selection.  相似文献   

区域气候模式RegCM2对标量粗糙敏感性试验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

和渊  苏炳凯等 《气象科学》2001,21(2):136-146

在地气通量的计算中,一般没有考虑温度、水汽、动量的相应粗糙度之间的不同。本文将标量粗糙度Z0T和Z0q引入区域气候模式RegCM2的陆面过程BATS中,用1991年6月与7月的观测资料作了三组敏感性试验,并同实况进行了比较。结果表明：在区域气候模式RegCM2中引入标量粗糙度后,提高了地气间感热通量与潜热通量的计算精度,改善了地表温度和地表比湿的模拟,进而改变了降水的模拟,表明区域气候模式对标量粗糙是敏感的,并且在晴天状况下更为敏感。  相似文献   

Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models     

Roger N. Jones  Francis H.S. Chiew  Walter C. Boughton  Lu Zhang 《Advances in water resources》2006

Hydrological model sensitivity to climate change can be defined as the response of a particular hydrological model to a known quantum of climate change. This paper estimates the hydrological sensitivity, measured as the percentage change in mean annual runoff, of two lumped parameter rainfall-runoff models, SIMHYD and AWBM and an empirical model, Zhang01, to changes in rainfall and potential evaporation. These changes are estimated for 22 Australian catchments covering a range of climates, from cool temperate to tropical and moist to arid. The results show that the models display different sensitivities to both rainfall and potential evaporation changes. The SIMHYD, AWBM and Zhang01 models show mean sensitivities of 2.4%, 2.5% and 2.1% change in mean annual flow for every 1% change in mean annual rainfall, respectively. All rainfall sensitivities have a lower limit of 1.8% and show upper limits of 4.1%, 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively. The results for potential evaporation change are −0.5%, −0.8% and −1.0% for every 1% increase in mean annual potential evaporation, respectively, with changes rainfall being approximately 3–5 times more sensitive than changes in potential evaporation for each 1% change in climate. Despite these differences, the results show similar correlations for several catchment characteristics. The most significant relationship is between percent change in annual rainfall and potential evaporation to the catchment runoff coefficient. The sensitivity of both A and B factors decreases with an increasing runoff coefficient, as does the uncertainty in this relationship. The results suggest that a first-order relationship can be used to give a rough estimate of changes in runoff using estimates of change in rainfall and potential evaporation representing small to modest changes in climate. Further work will develop these methods further, by investigating other regions and changes on the subannual scale.  相似文献