Improving the accuracy of tipping-bucket rain records using disaggregation techniques   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Molini  L.G. Lanza  P. La Barbera 《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):203

We present a methodology able to infer the influence of rainfall measurement errors on the reliability of extreme rainfall statistics. We especially focus on systematic mechanical errors affecting the most popular rain intensity measurement instrument, namely the tipping-bucket rain-gauge (TBR). Such uncertainty strongly depends on the measured rainfall intensity (RI) with systematic underestimation of high RIs, leading to a biased estimation of extreme rain rates statistics. Furthermore, since intense rain-rates are usually recorded over short intervals in time, any possible correction strongly depends on the time resolution of the recorded data sets. We propose a simple procedure for the correction of low resolution data series after disaggregation at a suitable scale, so that the assessment of the influence of systematic errors on rainfall statistics become possible. The disaggregation procedure is applied to a 40-year long rain-depth dataset recorded at hourly resolution by using the IRP (Iterated Random Pulse) algorithm. A set of extreme statistics, commonly used in urban hydrology practice, have been extracted from simulated data and compared with the ones obtained after direct correction of a 12-year high resolution (1 min) RI series. In particular, the depth–duration–frequency curves derived from the original and corrected data sets have been compared in order to quantify the impact of non-corrected rain intensity measurements on design rainfall and the related statistical parameters. Preliminary results suggest that the IRP model, due to its skill in reproducing extreme rainfall intensities at fine resolution in time, is well suited in supporting rainfall intensity correction techniques.  相似文献   

新疆积雪对气候变暖的响应   总被引：38，自引：1，他引：38  

李培基 《气象学报》2001,59(4):491-501

积雪对全球变暖的响应是当前正在争论的问题。文中通过地面气象台站和 SMMR微波卫星遥感两种积雪资料所建立的两个独立的积雪序列的一致性 ,证明前者在表现新疆积雪长期变化能力方面具有可靠性。阐明了积雪年际变化特征及其与冬季气温和降水量年际波动的关系 ,检验了积雪长期变化趋势。研究表明 ,虽然近 5 0 a来新疆冬季变暖十分显著 ,尤其 2 0世纪 90年代为最温暖的时期 ,但是积雪并未出现持续减少的现象 ;积雪长期变化表现为显著的年际波动过程叠加在长期缓慢的增加趋势之上。积雪年际波动是冬季降水量和气温两者年际波动共同作用的结果 ;冬季气温和降雪量变化受不同的欧亚环流振荡所控制 ;积雪增加趋势与降雪量趋势相一致 ,这可能是由于全球变暖导致海洋蒸发量增加 ,以及在寒冷干燥气候下积雪对降雪量变化更为敏感的缘故。  相似文献   

陆面过程模式研究简评   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：11  

史学丽 《应用气象学报》2001,12(1):102-112

主要总结了陆面过程模式的发展状况, 对一些国际间合作进行的计划、试验成果以及我国在这方面的研究情况加以介绍和评述, 最后给出陆面模拟研究中存在的难点、问题及可能的解决途径.  相似文献   

Analysis on Depth Distribution and Precursor Mechanism of Small and Moderate Earthquakes     

Wang Jian 《中国地震研究》2001,15(4):406-411

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｆｏｃｕｓｄｅｐｔｈｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎａｎｄｉｔｓｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌｂａｃｋｇｒｏｕｎｄｉｓｏｎｅｏｆｍｏｓｔａｔ ｔｅｎｔｉｖｅｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓ.Ｐｒｏｆ.ＦｕＺｈｅｎｇｘｉａｎｇ (1 996)ｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｅｄｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｆｏｃｕｓｄｅｐｔｈｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕ ｔｉｏｎｏｆａｆｔｅｒｓｈｏｃｋｓ ,ｃｒｕｓｔａｌｖｅｌｏｃｉｔｙｌａｙｅｒｓａｎｄｓｕｒｆａｃｅｔｈｅｒｍａｌｆｌｏｗ .Ｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｆｏｃｕ…  相似文献   

四边形法绘制水下河床等深线图     

闻道秋 《测绘工程》1999,8(3):21-25

根据水下河床水深点测量采样的既有规则格网法又有三角形法二者优点的四边形法绘制河床等深线图,该法数据结构简单,编程方便,速度快。文 图表对水下对河床水深点的数据数据结构,四边形的构万能主等深线的追踪作了详细的讨论。  相似文献   

Natural hazards in British Columbia: an interdisciplinary and inter-institutional challenge     

O. Slaymaker 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1999,88(2):317-324

 Although British Columbia experiences many natural hazards, there is as yet no unified policy to promote natural hazard management in the province. The problem is not in the quantity and quality of geoscience assessment of natural hazards, but instead, it is suggested, in the isolation of that work from broader risk perspectives and in the lack of clarity of division of responsibilities between various levels of government. The example of recent changes in perception of the terrain stability problem illustrates how natural hazard problems are driven by social and political priorities rather than by geoscience priorities. Received: 22 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 November 1998  相似文献   

半干旱区内陆湖泊透明度高光谱估测模型研究——以松嫩平原查干湖为例   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

宋开山  张柏  王宗明  段洪涛  张渊智  李方 《水科学进展》2006,17(6):790-796

通过实测查干湖高光谱数据,建立透明度(Secchi Disk Depth,SDD)单波段估测模型、比值估测模型以及神经网络高光谱估测模型,并以确定性系数R2以及剩余残差RMSE为指标进行了验证.通过对单波段估测模型和比值估测模型进行比较发现,单波段模型估测结果与比值模型相差无几,而水体透明度经对数处理有利于模型精度提高,但是神经网络模型是三者中最优的.查干湖透明度高光谱定量估测模型的建立,有利于今后利用遥感影像,对查干湖水体透明度进行全面估测,对于研究和监测查干湖水体水质状况有重要意义.  相似文献   

Spatial and seasonal variation of major ions in Himalayan snow and ice: A source consideration   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ya-ping Liu  Zhi-xing Geng  Shu-gui Hou   《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2010,37(2):195-205

The spatial and temporal variation of major ions (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, , , and Cl⁻) in Himalayan snow and ice is investigated by using two snow pits from the East Rongbuk glacier (28°01′N, 86°58′E, 6500 m a.s.l.), one snow pit from the Nangpai Gosum glacier (28°03′N, 86°39′E, 5700 m a.s.l.), one snow pit from the Gyabrag glacier (28°11′N, 86°38′E, 6303 m a.s.l.), and three ice cores from the Sentik (35°59′N, 75°58′E, 4908 m a.s.l.), Dasuopu (28°33′N, 85°44′E, 7000 m a.s.l.), and East Rongbuk (27°59′N, 86°55′E, 6450 m a.s.l.) glaciers, respectively. In general, the major ions show a significant seasonal variation, with high concentrations during the non-monsoon (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon) season and relatively low concentrations during the monsoon season. Monsoon precipitation with high local/regional dust loading related to summer circulation is possibly responsible for the high concentrations occurring sporadically during the monsoon season. The crest of the Himalayas is an effective barrier to the spatial distribution of Na⁺, Cl⁻ and concentrations, but not to the major ions associated with dust influx (e.g. Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺). Atmospheric backward trajectories from the HYSPLIT_4 model used in identifying chemical species sourcing suggest that the major ions in the Himalayan snow and ice come mainly from the Thar Desert located in the North India, as well as West Asia, or even the distant Sahara Desert in the North Africa during the winter and spring seasons. This is different from the conventionally assumed arid and semi-arid regions of the central Asia. Factors, such as different vapor sources due to atmospheric circulation patterns and geographical features (e.g. altitude, topography), may contribute to the differences in major ionic concentrations between the western and eastern Himalayas.  相似文献   

An artificial neural network-based snow cover predictive modeling in the higher Himalayas     

Bhogendra Mishra  Nitin K. Tripathi  Mukand S. Babel 《山地科学学报》2014,11(4):825-837

With trends indicating increase in temperature and decrease in winter precipitation, a significant negative trend in snow-covered areas has been identified in the last decade in the Himalayas. This requires a quantitative analysis of the snow cover in the higher Himalayas. In this study, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model, an artificial neural network （ANN）, was deployed to predict the snow cover in the Kaligandaki river basin for the next 30 years. Observed climatic data, and snow covered area was used to train and test the model that captures the gross features of snow under the current climate scenario. The range of the likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow was assessed in the Himalayas using downscaled temperature and precipitation change projection from - HadCM3, a global circulation model to project future climate scenario, under the AIB emission scenario, which describes a future world of very rapid economic growth with balance use between fossil and non-fossil energy sources. The results show that there is a reduction of 9% to 46% of snow cover in different elevation zones during the considered time period, i.e., 2Oll to 2040. The 4700 m to 52oo m elevation zone is the most affected area and the area higher than 5200 m is the least affected. Overall, however, it is clear from the analysis that seasonal snow in the Kaligandaki basin is likely to be subject to substantialchanges due to the impact of climate change.  相似文献   

春夏季青藏高原积雪对中国夏末秋初 降水的影响及其可能机制   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

霍飞  江志红  刘征宇 《大气科学》2014,38(2):352-362

本文首先利用最大协方差分析方法,探讨青藏高原积雪与中国降水之间的联系,发现中国夏末秋初（8～10月,简称ASO）降水与前期及同期高原积雪有着显著联系,当春夏季青藏高原西部多雪时,其后ASO中国长江及其以南地区多雨,而东部沿海的狭长区域少雨。进一步引入最大响应估计等方法,研究中国区域降水对高原积雪异常的响应及其可能的物理机制,结果表明,冬春季高原多雪异常可持续到夏季,并通过改变地表热力状况,导致ASO南亚高压减弱,同时在高、低空激发出两支波列:高层200 hPa波列沿中高纬西风急流传播,自高原经蒙古到达日本呈现明显的“负—正—负”位势高度异常传播,日本上空为气旋性异常环流;低层850 hPa波列起于高原,经孟加拉湾至中国南海,沿着西南气流传播,导致台湾附近的反气旋性异常环流,其西侧的偏南气流,将南海丰富的水汽输送至中国南部湖南、广西;而高层中心位于日本的气旋性异常环流西侧的偏北气流利于北方天气尺度扰动向南移动,它们为长江中下游及其以南地区多雨提供了有利条件。进一步计算定常波波数也表明,高层西风急流与低层西南季风气流作为波导,有利于高原上空的扰动沿着高、低空2支通道向东传播。由于东部沿海浙江、福建为正位势高度异常区,低层反气旋性异常环流则抑制了该区域的降水。  相似文献