On robustness of large quantile estimates to largest elements of the observation series   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

W. G. Strupczewski  K. Kochanek  S. Weglarczyk  V. P. Singh 《水文研究》2007,21(10):1328-1344

The robustness of large quantile estimates of largest elements in a small sample by the methods of moments (MOM), L‐moments (LMM) and maximum likelihood (MLM) was evaluated and compared. Bias (B) and mean square error (MSE) were used to measure the estimation methods performance. Quantiles were estimated by eight two‐parameter probability distributions with the variation coefficient being the shape parameter. The effect of dropping largest elements of the series on large quantile values was assessed for various variation coefficient (C_V)/sample size (n) ‘combinations’ with n = 30 as the basic value. To that end, both the Monte Carlo sampling experiments and an asymptotic approach consisting in distribution truncation were applied. In general, both sampling and asymptotic approaches point to MLM as the most robust method of the three considered, with respect to bias of large quantiles. Comparing the performance of two other methods, the MOM estimates were found to be more robust for small and moderate hydrological samples drawn from distributions with zero lower‐bound than were the LMM estimates. Extending the evaluation to outliers, it was shown that all the above findings remain valid. However, using the MSE variation as a measure of performance, the LMM was found to be the best for most distribution/variation coefficient combinations, whereas MOM was found to be the worst. Moreover, removal of the largest sample element need not result in a loss of estimation efficiency. The gain in accuracy is observed for the heavy‐tailed and log‐normal distributions, being particularly distinctive for LMM. In practice, while dealing with a single sample deprived of its largest element, one should choose the estimation method giving the lowest MSE of large quantiles. For n = 30 and several distribution/variation coefficient combinations, the MLM outperformed the two other methods in this respect and its supremacy grew with sample size, while MOM was usually the worst. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Abrupt variation in channel width along part of the River Severn,near Shrewsbury,Shropshire, England     

G. H. Dury 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1984,9(5):485-492

The River Severn, near Shrewsbury, Shropshire, England, is formed by the union of the uppermost Severn with the Vyrnwy; both of these major headstreams drain from the Welsh upland. That part of the trunk Severn here under consideration has been under investigation for some years as exemplifying Osage-type underfitness. In the course of the investigation, a census was made of width between banktops on two reaches, and of water surface width on one of these reaches: the difference between the two types of width gives the value of a third type, the width of batter. All three width types produce Poisson distributions of frequency. Width, particularly width between banktops, varies rapidly in the downstream direction. In view of the observed Poisson distributions, transform rather than arithmetic values have been used in difference-of-means tests applied to variation along the channel: cube root transforms are the type selected. Although there is little to choose, on the study reaches, between arithmetic means and Poisson modes, the results obtained do suggest a query about the selection of the most appropriate width values, for instance for the purposes of channel morphology. All types of width are found to vary along the channel far more rapidly than would be expected from mere randomness. Variation in bank strength appears to account for about half the variation in width between banktops. The results obtained for batter width could be applied in the design of a sampling programme designed to identify local difference in bank strength.  相似文献   

麦哲伦海山区维嘉平顶海山群富钴结壳伴生有用元素空间分布特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王彦美  张伙带  刘季花  高晶晶  黄文星  朱本铎 《地质论评》2017,63(4):1064-1078

本文对麦哲伦海山区维嘉平顶海山群富钴结壳样品中的伴生有用元素(REE、PGE、W、Mo、Au、Te)的空间分布特征进行了研究。研究表明:富钴结壳伴生有用元素在平面上的分布极不均匀,但多以条带状平行水深等深线分布,也有少数区域表现为斑块状分布,且不同的伴生有用元素的富集区域有所差别;REE和PGE主要在南部和西南部斜坡发育,而W、Mo则主要富集于西北部和东部斜坡,Au集中发育在东南部的海斜坡上,Te的分布呈斑块状富集于各向斜坡。随着水深增加,REE和PGE呈现出由最高含量降低后逐渐升高的变化趋势,W、Mo、Au、Te则随着水深增加含量由低升高,后略有降低,再小幅升高的变化趋势。  相似文献   

2001-2002年柘林湾大量营养盐的时空分布   总被引：17，自引：2，他引：15  

黄长江  杜虹  陈善文  何歆  董巧香  黄文魁 《海洋与湖沼》2004,35(1):21-29

2001年5月—2002年5月在粤东大规模增养殖区柘林湾及湾外附近海域布设19个测站,对大量营养盐及相关的理化、生物因子进行每月一次的周年调查。结果表明,调查海域大量营养盐的平面分布呈由湾内向湾外、近岸向离岸递减的基本格局,而湾内则表现为西部高于东部的趋势。与外界水体的交换能力、周边地区的陆源排污及湾内海水增养殖业的结构是决定拓林湾营养盐平面分布格局的3个主要因素。调查海域溶解性无机氮、磷、硅的年平均值分别为25．92、1．07和37．61μmool／L,与上一周年调查相比,氮的含量略有上升,而磷、硅的含量分别下降了45．1％和37．0％。调查海区无机营养盐的周年变化基本上表现为单峰型。受2001—2002年度厄尔尼诺现象的影响,2002年春季海区的地表径流明显减少,盐度显著升高,由此造成了海区无机营养盐在这一期间的显著低值,这应是海区磷、硅含量比上一周年显著下降的主要原因。浮游植物生长的限制因子从上一周年的氮限制转变成本周年的磷限制(85．0％),可能是厄尔尼诺现象引起磷含量显著下降的原因,也可能是海区富氮趋势的表现。  相似文献   

基于Halphen分布和最大熵的洪水频率分析     

熊丰  陈璐  郭生练 《水文》2018,38(3):1-6

设计洪水估算值对水利水电工程的设计规划至关重要,其关键是选择合适的分布线型和参数估计方法。目前采用单一的频率曲线进行水文分析计算,其设计结果具有较大的不确定性。引入Halphen分布函数进行洪水频率分析,并提出了基于最大熵原理的参数估计方法。利用丹江口水库1929~2014年的年最大日流量资料系列,分析检验Halphen分布的拟合效果,并与传统的分布进行比较。结果表明,Halphen函数具有灵活的形式和较好的尾部特征,适合于水文频率分析,其拟合结果基本优于其他的传统分布。  相似文献   

Implementing geostatistical analysis to study spatio-temporal distribution patterns of swimming crabs(Portunus trituberculatus)     

Wenbin Zhu  Kaner Lu  Zhanhui Lu  Qian Dai  Zhenghua Li  Yongdong Zhou  Siqi Huang  Haichen Zhu  Guocheng Cui 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(6):67-74

This study attempted to compare the performance of local polynomial interpolation,inverse distance weighted interpolation,and ordinary kriging in studying distribution patterns of swimming crabs.Cross-validation was used to select the optimum method to get distribution results,and kriging was used for making spatial variability analysis.Data were collected from 87 sampling stations in November of 2015(autumn) and February(winter),May(spring) and August(summer) of 2016.Results indicate that swimming crabs widely distributed in autumn and summer:in the summer,they were more spatially independent,and resources in each sampling station varied a lot;in the winter and spring,the abundance of crabs was much lower,but the individual crab size was bigger,and they showed the patchy and more concentrative distribution pattern,which means they were more spatially dependent.Distribution patterns were in accordance with ecological migration features of swimming crabs,which were affected by the changing marine environment.This study could infer that it is applicable to study crab fishery or even other crustacean species using geostatistical analysis.It not only helps practitioners have a better understanding of how swimming crabs migrate from season to season,but also assists researchers in carrying out a more comprehensive assessment of the fishery.Therefore,it may facilitate advancing the implementation in the pilot quota management program of swimming crabs in northern Zhejiang fishing grounds.  相似文献   

引水等综合整治后杭州西湖氮、磷营养盐时空变化(1985—2013年)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

尤爱菊  吴芝瑛  韩曾萃  杨俊  滑磊 《湖泊科学》2015,27(3):371-377

经引水等综合整治后,西湖外湖、西里湖总磷(TP)浓度累计下降58%和78%,总氮(TN)浓度累计下降16.7%和7.7%,透明度提高100%~200%,富营养状态得到极大缓解.比较1986年治理前,西湖各湖区因来水、引水和排水格局差异较大,TP浓度的年内变化特点及驱动因素也存在较大差异:杨公堤以西的上游湖区因优质水源补充TP浓度总体较低,同时受流域降雨径流面源输入影响,呈现时段性升高;杨公堤和苏堤之间的中游湖区优质水源补充量最大,湖区水体更新最快,TP浓度最低且变化相对最为稳定;苏堤以东的外湖区水体更新相对最慢,在夏、秋高温季节因底泥污染释放,TP浓度出现峰值.因外来引水量大且未经脱氮处理,西湖各湖区TN年内变化基本与钱塘江取水口TN浓度变化一致,同时因流域降雨径流面源输入而出现时段性波动.基于TP质量平衡模型分析,各湖区水质空间差异主要受水体年交换次数影响,其次受单位水体的年污染负荷影响.  相似文献   

A Preliminary Study on the Phenomenon of Microseismic Fluctuations before Impending Strong Earthquake     

YANG Liming  HAO Zhen  WANG Jianjun  ZHANG Shuzhen  YAO Jiajun  DONG Lei 《中国地震研究》2019,33(3):367-390

Based on repeated comparison studies of broadband digital seismic records before the Wenchuan M_S8. 0,Yushu M_S7. 1 and Qingchuan M_S5. 4 earthquakes,the possible microseismic fluctuations before impending earthquakes were preliminarily identified. In order to verify and test this phenomenon,a real-time tracking technical system was established by using continuous waveform records of more than 200 wide-band digital seismic stations in regional networks such as Gansu,Qinghai,Sichuan,Yunnan and Tibet.Through real-time tracking and dynamic monitoring of 24 earthquakes with M≥5. 0 occurring in the Qinghai-Tibetan block during the period of 2012-2014 and the observations of stations in some non-seismic areas,the reproducibility and objectivity of the impending earthquake phenomenon were verified. The main characteristics of the microseismic fluctuation phenomena immediately preceding the strong earthquakes are as follows:(1)the spectrum range is wider,the dominant frequency is 11-16 Hz,and the spectrum shape is more regular;(2)it appears 6-24 days before the earthquake,averaging about 15 days;(3)it is possible to be recorded by the stations within the epicenter distance of 50 km,and the stations with the epicenter distance of more than 50 km generally cannot record it;(4)this phenomenon is directional,i. e. the direction in which the activity degree,N-value,varies significantly may be related to the location of the seismic source,the seismogenic fault and the distribution of aftershocks of the strong earthquake. The preliminary study shows that the impending-earthquakes microseismic phenomena may be related to the pre-activity,micro-vibration and micro-rupture in the source region in the imminent stage,or the microactivity and micro-rupture associated with the active tectonics.  相似文献   

景谷M_S 6.6地震前地震矩加速释放时空扫描特征研究     

何应文  王建芳  杨晓琳  杨建文 《华南地震》2019,39(1):20-24

为考察2014年10月7日景谷M_S 6.6地震前的可能的中长期地震前兆现象以及相关的孕震物理过程,采用加速矩释放(AMR)现象对此次地震进行了分析,首先用T=15 a, R=100 km的时空窗对CBS释放曲线的均方根残差RMS在m-tf二维空间中的分布以及最小RMS对应的m值随时间的变化分析,然后用震前15个月地震资料以逐3个月的扫描方式,对T-M_C二维空间中矩释放指数m值的分布进行分析。结果表明:景谷M_S 6.6地震前在震中附近100 km范围内, m值随着时间逐渐逼近实际发震时刻而逐渐减小,时间上有逐渐趋近于临界状态的趋势,空间上震前似存在AMR逐渐向震中附近"迁移"的现象。  相似文献   

乌梁素海冰封期湖泊冰盖组构特征对污染物分布的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

杨芳  李畅游  史小红  赵胜男  郝亚洲 《湖泊科学》2016,28(2):455-462

为探究富营养化浅水湖泊季节性冰盖污染物分布规律,于2013-2014年冰封期,钻取乌梁素海湖泊冰盖冰芯试样,观测冰厚并对冰芯晶体结构、气泡含量、污染物浓度(总氮、总磷和COD_(Cr))进行分析.结果表明:冰盖可分为4层,中间2层冰晶体粒径较大且气泡含量较少,为冰盖热力生长区.冰盖以柱状晶体居多,粒径随深度增加而增加,气泡含量随冰盖密度增加而减少.冰盖结构特征与污染物分布具有相关关系,冰芯密度及气泡分布与总氮、总磷和COD_(Cr)相关关系分别为0.8965、0.8718、0.8184,并建立多元回归模型揭示冰封期湖泊水质特征,为季节性湖泊冰盖研究及冰封期湖泊水资源规划和管理提供理论依据.  相似文献