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41.
42.
通过相关分析北京、兰州、银川、红山地磁台地磁垂直分量Z(世界时13—14时)时均值资料(每两台相组合,以月为统计单位),得相关系数R和回归系数b。经统计检验,发现不同台站的R、b大小虽有差异,但正常情况下均在其置信区间变化(置信概率0.95)。几次中强震前,b、R大幅度下降,连续偏离其控制区间,至临震前1—2月或当月趋于恢复或完全恢复。对不同台组的垂直分量差ΔZ与时间作回归分析(ΔZ为时间t的函数),得不同台站的线性回归方程及相关系数R。正常情况下ΔZ在回归方程的置信区间变化(置信概率0.95),当地磁台附近孕育中强以上地震时,ΔZ明显偏离回归方程的控制区间。应用以上两种方法对80年代以来宁夏及其邻区的六次中强地震作了对应效果检验,并对发现的问题作了简略探讨。 相似文献
43.
A two-phase trend model is presented to investigate the turning-point signals of evolution trend in long-term series of a climatic element. Based on nonlinear fitting, the revised model brings out more evident improvement of the linear model proposed by Solow et al. (1987). Both theoretical deduction and case calculation show that our version can search the turning point and period accurately and objectively. In particular it is fit for computer exploring the turning points in long-range records from stations covering a large area, thus avoiding subjective judgement by a usual drawing method. 相似文献
44.
介绍了利用北京师范大学研制的IRA-935型红外水汽测量仪对云南丽江高美古天文候选点及昆明凤凰山对比点上空垂直大气水汽积分含量W0的观测结果,给出了两地W0的日变化曲线及分布图,并对全年测量数据的统计结果作了分析和讨论 相似文献
45.
Abedalrazq F. Khalil Mac McKeeMariush Kemblowski Tirusew AsefaLuis Bastidas 《Advances in water resources》2006
Sparse learning machines provide a viable framework for modeling chaotic time-series systems. A powerful state-space reconstruction methodology using both support vector machines (SVM) and relevance vector machines (RVM) within a multiobjective optimization framework is presented in this paper. The utility and practicality of the proposed approaches have been demonstrated on the time series of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) biweekly volumes from 1848 to 2004. A comparison of the two methods is made based on their predictive power and robustness. The reconstruction of the dynamics of the Great Salt Lake volume time series is attained using the most relevant feature subset of the training data. In this paper, efforts are also made to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the machines in learning and forecasting as a function of model structure, model parameters, and bootstrapping samples. The resulting model will normally have a structure, including parameterization, that suits the information content of the available data, and can be used to develop time series forecasts for multiple lead times ranging from two weeks to several months. 相似文献
46.
In this paper we consider the procedures that, on the basis of an earthquake catalogue, yield the magnitude distribution function F
M
(F
M
generators). In particular, our attention is focused on the F
M
generators that are currently used in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of F
M
in the range of strong earthquakes is of crucial importance. On the other hand, in general, the statistical validation of F
M
in that range is not feasible because of an insufficient number of strong earthquakes in available catalogues.Our investigation is limited to the problem of the comparison between competing F
M
generators. We show that a simple empirical F
M
generator (called the CFP generator) can be more reliable than generators based on mathematical models. The numerical experiments that support this statement regards two test-sites and two mathematical models of magnitude distribution, namely the truncated-exponential and the characteristic-type models.The main conclusion is the suggestion of a test (called the CFP-test) that can be summarized as follows. Let X be a site for which, with current criteria, a specific F
M
X
generator based on a mathematical model has been selected. At this point, following the comparison approach described in the paper, the F
M
X
generator is compared with the empirical CFP generator. It can happen (actually it happens in many of our numerical experiments) that this test indicates the CFP generator as more reliable than the selected F
M
X
generator. 相似文献
47.
48.
In regards to the earthquakes recording M ≥ 5.0 that occurred in middle northern part of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Block from 1970 - 2003, in this study we describe the temporal and spatial centralization features of the weak earthquakes and the enhancement and anomalous quiescence of their seismic activity before main shocks through 4 parameters, which are basically not correlated: earthquake time centralization degree parameter Ct, earthquake space centralization degree parameter Cd, η value and weak earthquake frequency and so on. On the basis of calculation results, it has been seen that before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 took place in the middle northern part of the Qinghal-Xizang (Tibet) Block, the frequency of weak earthquakes often shows ascent and drop, their strength shows an obvious enhancement and the centralization distribution with time and space is evident. 相似文献
49.
王仲锋 《测绘与空间地理信息》1998,(2)
本文结合参数平差和主成分估计理论,导出了误差方程中含多重共线性时未知参数的求解公式,并以定理的形式,证明了主成分估计的解是极小范数解。由此,将主成分估计推广到秩亏网平差中,同时导出了未知参数估值之协因数阵的计算公式,同时,证明了自由网平差的传统特性。 相似文献
50.
根据1500年以来的地震资料,应用数理统计、灰色预测、干支60周期分析等多种方法,对江苏—南黄海地区未来3~5年地震形势进行分析和预测,结果表明:该区目前处于本世纪第2活跃幕中后期,未来几年内依然存在5~6级地震的危险性,至2000年7月,累积发震概率将达到0.7~0.8,1999—2000年、2002—2003年均有可能发生5级以上中强地震。 相似文献