A multi-model ensemble approach for assessment of climate change impact on surface winds in France   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Julien Najac  Julien Boé  Laurent Terray 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(5):615-634

Statistical downscaling of 14 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) is presented to assess potential changes of the 10 m wind speeds in France. First, a statistical downscaling method is introduced to estimate daily mean 10 m wind speed at specific sites using general circulation model output. Daily 850 hPa wind field has been selected as the large scale circulation predictor. The method is based on a classification of the daily wind fields into a few synoptic weather types and multiple linear regressions. Years are divided into an extended winter season from October to March and an extended summer season from April to September, and the procedure is conducted separately for each season. ERA40 reanalysis and observed station data have been used to build and validate the downscaling algorithm over France for the period 1974–2002. The method is then applied to 14 AOGCMs of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset. Three time periods are focused on: a historical period (1971–2000) from the climate of the twentieth century experiment and two climate projection periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from the IPCC SRES A1B experiment. Evolution of the 10 m wind speed in France and associated uncertainties are discussed. Significant changes are depicted, in particular a decrease of the wind speed in the Mediterranean area. Sources of those changes are investigated by quantifying the effects of changes in the weather type occurrences, and modifications of the distribution of the days within the weather types.  相似文献   

Investigation of the hydrogeochemistry of some bottled mineral waters in Hungary     

Ubul Fugedi  Laszlo KutiGyozo Jordan  Barbara Kerek 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2010

Bottled drinking water constitutes a significant part of total water consumption in developed countries and national and EU legislation regulates their market production. In the framework of an international project carried out by the EuroGeoSurveys Geochemistry Expert Group 36 bottled waters were obtained from public markets in Hungary in order to determine their hydrogeochemical composition. The objective of this study is to investigate the possible relationship between groundwater aquifer lithology and the processed and marketed bottled waters, and to develop a classification of bottled waters, based on their dissolved mineral content. Analytical results of this study are compared with the composition shown on bottle labels, and with archive hydrochemical data from the producing wells. Results show that, while processing of original groundwater, such as oxygen addition, iron or hydrogen-sulphide removal can significantly alter water composition, bottled water composition can be used for selection of sites for detailed hydrogeochemical and hydrogeological characterization. A simple and useful classification of bottled water quality is also presented that is based on natural groups of sampled waters derived by means of statistical data analysis methods.  相似文献   

储层宏观非均质性研究——以吉林油田大208区黑帝庙油田为例     

胡望水程超  王炜牛世忠  彭国红王东辉  张宇昆周萍 《地质科学》2010,45(2):466-475

储层非均质性是影响油气藏中油、气、水渗流及油气采收率的主要内因。进行储层非均质研究,对查明油藏剩余油分布、采取合理注采措施、提高采收率显得十分必要。以吉林油田大208区黑帝庙油层三角洲前缘亚相储层为例,采用隔夹层识别对比、沉积微相分析、地质统计学系数和劳伦兹系数方法分析了层间、层内和平面非均质性。研究表明：黑帝庙油层发育3套稳定隔层,据此可划分为3套开发层系; 夹层在各单砂体中比较发育,应将夹层分割的注采井归为不同注采井网; 非均质性受沉积微相影响明显,水下分流河道和河口坝微相的非均质性最强; 地质统计学参数和劳伦兹系数研究表明,黑帝庙油层10个单砂体均为极强的非均质性,统计学参数往往偏离强非均质标准甚远,而劳伦兹参数值分布于0～1间,更能直观定量的表现出储层宏观非均质性强弱。  相似文献   

A distribution function based bandwidth selection method for kernel quantile estimation     

Dany Faucher  Peter Funder Rasmussen  Bernard Bobe 《Journal of Hydrology》2001,250(1-4):1-11

The key problem in nonparametric frequency analysis of flood and droughts is the estimation of the bandwidth parameter which defines the degree of smoothing. Most of the proposed bandwidth estimators have been based on the density function rather than the cumulative distribution function or the quantile that are the primary interest in frequency analysis. We propose a new bandwidth estimator derived from properties of quantile estimators. The estimator builds on work by Altman and Léger (1995). The estimator is compared to the well-known method of least squares cross-validation (LSCV) using synthetic data generated from various parametric distributions used in hydrologic frequency analysis. Simulations suggest that our estimator performs at least as well as, and in many cases better than, the method of LSCV. In particular, the use of the proposed plug-in estimator reduces bias in the estimation as compared to LSCV. When applied to data sets containing observations with identical values, typically the result of rounding or truncation, the LSCV and most other techniques generally underestimates the bandwidth. The proposed technique performs very well in such situations.  相似文献   

Temperature and Water Vapor Weighting Functions from Radiative Transfer Equation with Surface Emissivity and Solar Reflectivity   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

Li Jun 《大气科学进展》1994,11(4):421-426

Linearization of Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE) is the key step in physical retrieval of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles from InfRared (IR) sounder observations. In this paper, the successive forms of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio component weighting functions are derived by applying one term variation method to RTE with surface emissivity and solar reflectivity contained. Retrivals of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio profiles from simulated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations with surface emissivity and solar reflectivity are presented.  相似文献   

泾阳台地震持续时间震级公式MD初探     

邢西淳  毛娟 《内陆地震》1994,8(3):247-252

用最小二乘法处理泾阳台ＤＤ－１地震仪记录资料，拟合适于泾阳台由地震波持续时间求算近震震级ＭＤ的公式：ＭＤ＝２．７ｌｇｒ—２．４（Δ≤１０ｋｍ），ＭＤ＝２．２９ｌｇｒ＋０．００１１８Δ－２．２５（１０ｋｍ＜Δ≤５２０ｋｍ），并对震级ＭＬ和ＭＤ进行误差分析。  相似文献   

Plan for the swiss randomized hail suppression experiment. Design of Grossversuch IV     

B. Federer  A. Waldvogel  W. Schmid  F. Hampel  E. Rosini  D. Vento  P. Admirat  J. F. Mezeix 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,117(3):548-571

  相似文献   

地震活动涨落、自组织结构和大震临界状态的统计特征   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

罗灼礼  孟国杰  王伟君  罗伟 《地震》2004,24(4):1-15

根据非线性动力学理论、运用概率论与数理统计方法,对非平衡地震发生系统的空间分布状态进行了研究。提出用空间变异系数δV判断涨落类型:凝聚集、群集、泊松型和均匀点阵分布。从整体观点综合应用各统计量即协方差μ11、非负量I(x,y)、联合信息熵H(x,y)、离散度σ和δV,对非平衡系统的群体空间自组织结构和临界状态的统计特征做了进一步的探讨。根据首都圈公元前231年～2003年M≥434地震活动及其和华北不同范围ML≥3.0地震活动涨落的统计分析认为,μ11≈0,I(x,y)>0,高H(x,y)值,低σ和δV值是强震和大震发生的自组织空间结构和临界现象的基本特征和必要条件。同时对地震空区、条带、前兆性震群及前震等前兆现象成因提出了新的观点和统计解释,并得出结论:仅当一个远离平衡态的系统(区域)有足够的随机性而又非泊松型涨落时,系统的突变(大震)是不可逆转的。  相似文献   

Evaluation of groundwater availability and sustainable extraction rate for the Upper Santiago Valley Aquifer,Chile   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

José?F.?Mu?ozEmail author  Bonifacio?Fernández  Cristián?Escauriaza 《Hydrogeology Journal》2003,11(6):687-700

The use of groundwater as water supply has increased dramatically in Santiago, Chile, during the last decades, and there is a need for accurately estimating the actual groundwater supply capacity in the upper Santiago Valley aquifer. The behavior of this aquifer was studied in order to determine the availability of water and the long-range sustainable extraction rate.Water-table depths were simulated using a numerical model with information on recharge from the last 48 years under different extraction policies. With this series of groundwater level data, groundwater level probability distribution functions were determined and extraction statistics were estimated by fitting time series models and by using the crossing theory. With this information, it has been possible to calculate the risk of being unable to supply groundwater demand because the results verify that only 67% of the water rights granted are able to be extracted on a sustained basis with a 90% exceedance probability. Furthermore, the results obtained demonstrate that the method is adequate for determining exceedance probabilities of groundwater flow.

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Resumen El uso de las aguas subterráneas como fuente de abastecimiento se ha incrementado enormemente en Santiago de Chile durante las últimas décadas, por lo que se necesita estimar de forma adecuada la capacidad actual de suministro del acuífero superior del Valle de Santiago. Se ha estudiado el comportamiento de este acuífero para determinar la disponibilidad de recursos y la tasa de extracción sustentable a largo plazo.Se ha simulado los niveles freáticos del acuífero utilizando un modelo numérico con información de la recarga en los últimos 48 años bajo diferentes regímenes de extracción. Con esta serie de datos de los niveles en el acuífero, se ha determinado la distribución de probabilidad de los niveles de las aguas subterráneas y se ha estimado las estadísticas de las extracciones mediante el ajuste de modelos de series temporales y la teoría de cruce. Con esta información, se ha podido calcular el riego de no satisfacer la demanda de abastecimiento, puesto que los resultados verifican que sólo se podría extraer el 67% de las concesiones de agua existentes de manera sustentable con un 90% de probabilidad de excedencia. Aún más, los resultados obtenidos demuestran que el método es adecuado para determinar las probabilidades de excedencia del flujo de las aguas subterráneas.

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Resumé Lutilisation de leau souterraine pour leau potable sest considérablement accrue à Santiago (Chili) au cours des derniers lustres; cest pourquoi il est maintenant nécessaire destimer avec précision la capacité réelle dalimentation de la nappe de laquifère supérieur de la vallée de Santiago. Le fonctionnement de cet aquifère a été étudié afin de déterminer la disponibilité en eau et le taux dextraction durable à long terme.Les niveaux de la nappe ont été simulés avec un modèle numérique à partir dinformation sur la recharge au cours des 48 dernières années pour différentes politiques dextraction. A partir de cette série de données piézométriques, des fonctions de distribution de probabilité des niveaux de la nappe ont été déterminées et des statistiques dextraction ont été estimées par ajustement de modèles de séries chronologiques en utilisant la théorie du croisement. Avec ces informations, il a été possible de calculer le risque de ne pas pouvoir satisfaire la demande deau souterraine, puisque les résultats vérifient que seulement 67% des droits deau attribués peuvent être extraits sur une base durable avec une probabilité de dépassement de 90%. En outre, les résultats obtenus démontrent que la méthode est adaptée à la détermination des probabilités de dépassement de lécoulement souterrain.

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The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes─Taking the North China Region as an Example     

Qin Chengzhi )  Zhou Chenghu )  Pei Tao )  Li Quanlin ) )State Key Laboratory of Resources  Environmental Information System  Institute of Geographic Sciences  Natural Resources Research  CAS  Beijing  China )Institute of Geophysics  CEA  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》2004,(2)

INTRODUCTIONMigrationofstrongearthquakesisaphenomenonwherebystrongearthquakestakeplaceinsuccessionincertainspatiallyregularpatterns (ZhangGuomin ,etal,2 0 0 1 ) .Seismologistsintheworldhavenoticedthisphenomenonforalongtime .Manyinstanceswerediscoveredinthepastdecades ,suchasthemigrationofstrongearthquakesalongtheNorthAnatolianFaultinTurkeysince1 939(Richter,1 958)andthemigrationofaseriesofearthquakes (MS ≥ 6 0 )aftertheMS7 9earthquakeinKwandong ,Japan (Utsu ,1 987) .Theexamplesofre…  相似文献