北半球秋季欧亚遥相关与华西秋雨的关系   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

徐金霞  闫彩霞  钟燕川  刘佳  马振峰 《气象科技》2017,45(3):492-498

利用EOF、相关分析、合成分析等常规统计方法研究华西秋雨与秋季欧亚遥相关(EUa)的关系。结果表明:北半球秋季欧亚遥相关(EUa)指数与华西秋雨呈显著的负相关,两者具有一致的阶段性特征。以1986年为界,20世纪80年代中期之前华西秋雨与EUa指数相关系数波动较大,均在-0.4以上,显著相关区主要集中于四川盆地西南部、贵州大部;20世纪80年代中期之后两者相关系数呈显著增加趋势,且显著相关区域向北偏移,主要集中于四川东北部、重庆大部以及陕西南部地区。EUa异常与华西秋雨的多寡关系显著。EUa正异常年,中高纬度环流形势与水汽特征有利于华西秋雨北部地区降水发生,华西秋雨南部地区缺乏水汽,动力条件不足,不利于秋雨偏多。EUa负异常年,华西秋雨东部地区,表现为有利于降水偏多,而西部地区则特征相反。  相似文献   

Long-Term Rainfall Variability in the Eastern Gangetic Plain in Relation to Global Temperature Change     

Aradhana Yaduvanshi  Ashwini Ranade 《大气与海洋》2017,55(2):94-109

India’s annual weather cycle consists mainly of wet and dry periods with monsoonal rains being one of the significant wet periods that shows strong spatiotemporal variability. This study includes the climatological characteristics, fluctuation features, and periodic cycles of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall of seven river basins across the eastern Gangetic Plain (EGP) using the longest possible instrumental area-averaged monthly rainfall series (1829–2012). Understanding the relationships between these parameters and global tropospheric temperature changes and El Niño and La Niña climatic signals is also attempted.

Climatologically, mean annual rainfall in the EGP varies from 1070.5?mm in the Tons River basin to 1508.6?mm in the Subarnarekha River basin. The highest rainfall in the EGP occurs during monsoon (1188?mm). The annual rainfall in all river basins and monsoon rainfall in four river basins is normally distributed. Annual and monsoonal rainfall in the Brahmani and Son River basins show a significant decreasing long-term trend. Over the last 20 years, annual rainfall in all river basins and monsoonal rainfall in five river basins show a decreasing trend. The power spectra for all rainfall series are characterized by consistent significant wavelength peaks at 3–5 years, 10–20 years, 40 years, and more than 80 years. Short-term fluctuations with a period less than 10 years is the major contributor to total variance in annual and/or monsoon rainfall (77.6%), followed by decadal variations with a period of 10–30 years (13.1%) and a long-term trend with a period greater than 30 years (9.3%).Temperature and thickness gradients from the Tibet–Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindu Kush highlands to eight strong highs show a significant correlation with rainfall during the onset and withdrawal phases of summer monsoon in the EGP.  相似文献   

2016年11月大气环流和天气分析   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

梅双丽  牛若芸 《气象》2017,43(2):249-256

2016年11月大气环流特征如下,北半球极涡呈双极型分布;欧亚中高纬乌拉尔山地区为一高压脊控制,西西伯利亚地区为一较强横槽,我国中高纬纬向环流较平直,处于宽广的位势高度负距平区,西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西偏强,南支槽平均位置位于90°E 附近。11月全国平均降水量30.6 mm,较常年同期（19 mm）偏多61%,共出现4次较强降水过程;江南及华南地区雨日多雨量大。全国有14站发生了极端连续降水日数事件,71站日降水量超过当地11月历史同期极大值。11月全国平均气温为2.9℃,与常年同期持平。共有4次较强冷空气过程,造成我国180站发生了极端日降温事件,其中30站日降温突破历史极值。11月出现4次大范围严重雾 霾天气过程。此外,西北太平洋和菲律宾南海有三个台风生成,对我国影响较小。  相似文献   

西江流域面雨量与区域大气环流型关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

钟利华  曾鹏  史彩霞  古文保  李勇 《应用气象学报》2017,28(4):470-480

利用Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法,对西江流域1971—2015年逐日平均850 hPa和500 hPa高度场进行环流客观分型,分析流域降水天气环流型出现概率及主导环流型变化特征,探讨主导环流型对西江流域总面雨量和子流域面雨量的贡献率及环流型配置与降水的关系。结果表明:当850 hPa为西南风型、500 hPa为西风型时,流域出现降水天气的概率最大;850 hPa气旋型和500 hPa西风型对年总面雨量和各子流域面雨量的贡献率均为最大,且对东部子流域面雨量的贡献率大于西部子流域,850 hPa南风型与500 hPa反气旋型的环流配置是西部子流域秋季降水偏多的主导环流型配置;春季850 hPa气旋型与500 hPa西风型、夏季850 hPa气旋型与500 hPa西风型、秋季850 hPa南风型与500 hPa反气旋型、冬季850 hPa西南风型与500 hPa西风型的环流配置时,出现强降水天气的概率分别为18.7%,21.1%,4.0%和2.0%,即夏季最大,其次为春季,冬季最小。近45年,850 hPa气旋型、500 hPa西风型对流域年总面雨量的贡献率呈增加趋势,是西江流域面雨量呈偏多趋势的主导环流型。  相似文献   

Flood forecasting in Niger-Benue basin using satellite and quantitative precipitation forecast data     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

Availability of reliable, timely and accurate rainfall data is constraining the establishment of flood forecasting and early warning systems in many parts of Africa. We evaluated the potential of satellite and weather forecast data as input to a parsimonious flood forecasting model to provide information for flood early warning in the central part of Nigeria. We calibrated the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model using rainfall data from post real time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi satellite Precipitation Analysis product (TMPA). Real time TMPA satellite rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall products were tested for flood forecasting. The implication of removing the systematic errors of the satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) was explored. Performance of the rainfall-runoff model was assessed using visual inspection of simulated and observed hydrographs and a set of performance indicators. The forecast skill was assessed for 1–6 days lead time using categorical verification statistics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), Frequency Of Hit (FOH) and Frequency Of Miss (FOM). The model performance satisfactorily reproduced the pattern and volume of the observed stream flow hydrograph of Benue River. Overall, our results show that SREs and rainfall forecasts from weather models have great potential to serve as model inputs for real-time flood forecasting in data scarce areas. For these data to receive application in African transboundary basins, we suggest (i) removing their systematic error to further improve flood forecast skill; (ii) improving rainfall forecasts; and (iii) improving data sharing between riparian countries.  相似文献   

北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李玲  苏万康 《台湾海峡》2005,24(1):7-14

本文应用奇异值分解方法给出同期和前期北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量相互匹配的空间典型分布型．分析结果表明，无论同期还是前期北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量之间均存在着清晰的遥相关．同期的赤道中东太平洋海温异常增高、日本以东洋面海温偏低，福建后汛期降水量偏少；另外，闽南地区后汛期降水量与同期NINO西海区和黑潮海区的海温成正相关关系．冬、春季出现厄尔尼诺现象时，次年福建尤其是闽南沿海后汛期降水量将偏少．  相似文献   

一种渤海风暴潮数值预报模式与试验     

王正林  孙文心 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1993,(1)

通过三维模式导出二维数值模式,采用守恒型空间差分格式对渤海风暴潮进行数值模拟。同时采用由三维模式导出的任意形式的底摩擦表达式,找出适用于渤海风暴潮的底摩擦参数。对曾经发生在渤海的四次较严重的风暴潮进行数值后报并与实测资料相比较,证实预报模式的可行性。  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Extreme Sea Levels for the Tamil Nadu (India) and Sri Lankan Coasts     

P. Chittibabu  S. K. Dube  P. C. Sinha  A. D. Rao  T. S. Murty 《Marine Geodesy》2002,25(3):235-244

Numerical modeling of extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones in the Indian seas has been confined to the northern part of the Bay of Bengal (north of Tamil Nadu). However, limited attempts have been made for modeling of surges along the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lankan coasts. Although, very rarely, cyclones form south of 10°N, there are some instances of severe cyclonic storms hitting these areas and causing widespread destruction to life and property. Keeping this in view, a suitable location-specific, high-resolution, numerical model has been developed for the prediction of storm surges in these regions with a grid resolution of 3 km. Using the model, numerical experiments are performed to simulate the storm surge associated with the 1964 Rameswaram cyclone, the 1978 Batticaloa cyclone, the 1992 Tuticorin cyclone, the 1993 Karaikal cyclone, and the 1994 Madras cyclone. During the years 1964, 1978, and 1992, the cyclones struck both Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coasts, while in 1993 and 1994, the cyclones struck only the Tamil Nadu coast. It is found that the computed sea surface elevations are in close agreement with the available observations/estimates.  相似文献   

Effect of fluid column dynamics on longitudinal vibrations of an ultra deepwater riser covered by an orifice plug     

Vadim S. Tikhonov  Alexander I. Safronov 《Ocean Engineering》2002,29(1):99-112

The paper studies longitudinal vibrations of an ultra-deepwater drilling riser whose bottom end is disconnected from the sea floor and covered by a plug (a blind one or the one with a hole). An elastic shell is used as a model of a riser pipe. The fluid column motion in the riser is described by the Navier–Stokes equation for a compressible fluid. Losses of fluid pressure during its flowing through a hole in the plug are taken into account. Solution of the riser equations is carried out in the frequency domain. Analysis of the effect which the riser length, wave period and height, and the plug-hole diameter on the amplitude of the riser's tension vibrations is conducted. A riser manufactured of strong aluminium alloys, some of prospective materials for ultra deepwater drilling, was considered as a prototype. It has been shown that risers 2000–4000 m long, plug-hole, and a riser 6000 m long with plug-hole of 0.087 m in diameter can withstand wave height of >15 m throughout the frequency range.  相似文献   

登陆珠江三角洲热带气旋暴雨的中尺度特征     

黄佩玲  彭金泉  张健儿  夏茗 《热带海洋学报》1994,(4)

利用逐时雨量分布图，对登陆珠江三角洲的热带气旋暴雨中尺度特征进行分类、对比和合成分析。实际资料证实了大范围的热带气旋暴雨是由若干中尺度雨团、雨带造成的，纯热带气旋环流形成的中尺度雨团、雨带具有与热带气旋云带大体一致的分布特征；有冷空气与之配合时，热带气旋环流北缘形成东西向的中尺度雨带；热带气旋登陆后的３ｈ可能出现最大中尺度雨团；随热带气旋环流的填塞减弱，中尺度而团也逐渐减弱消失；山地对中尺度雨团的移动起阻滞加强作用，有利的地形与暖湿气流配合，将激发生成新的中尺度雨带。  相似文献