Spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation using a continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model          下载免费PDF全文

Younghyun Cho  Bernard A. Engel 《水文研究》2018,32(7):904-922

A continuous Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method that considers time‐varied SCS CN values was developed based on the original SCS CN method with a revised soil moisture accounting approach to estimate run‐off depth for long‐term discontinuous storm events. The method was applied to spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation of rainfall‐run‐off flow with an underlying assumption for its spatial variability using a geographic information systems‐based spatially distributed Clark's unit hydrograph method (Distributed‐Clark; hybrid hydrologic model), which is a simple few parameter run‐off routing method for input of spatiotemporally varied run‐off depth, incorporating conditional unit hydrograph adoption for different run‐off precipitation depth‐based direct run‐off flow convolution. Case studies of spatially distributed long‐term (total of 6 years) hydrologic simulation for four river basins using daily NEXRAD quantitative precipitation estimations demonstrate overall performances of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) 0.62, coefficient of determination (R²) 0.64, and percent bias 0.33% in direct run‐off and E_NS 0.71, R² 0.72, and percent bias 0.15% in total streamflow for model result comparison against observed streamflow. These results show better fit (improvement in E_NS of 42.0% and R² of 33.3% for total streamflow) than the same model using spatially averaged gauged rainfall. Incorporation of logic for conditional initial abstraction in a continuous SCS CN method, which can accommodate initial run‐off loss amounts based on previous rainfall, slightly enhances model simulation performance; both E_NS and R² increased by 1.4% for total streamflow in a 4‐year calibration period. A continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model presented in this study is, therefore, potentially significant to improved implementation of long‐term hydrologic applications for spatially distributed rainfall‐run‐off generation and routing, as a relatively simple hydrologic modelling approach for the use of more reliable gridded types of quantitative precipitation estimations.  相似文献   

Comparison of automatic procedures for selecting flood peaks over threshold based on goodness‐of‐fit tests          下载免费PDF全文

Martin Durocher  Shabnam Mostofi Zadeh  Donald H. Burn  Fahim Ashkar 《水文研究》2018,32(18):2874-2887

In comparison with the traditional analysis of annual maximums, the peaks over threshold method provides many advantages when performing flood frequency analysis and trend analysis. However, the choice of the threshold remains an important question without definite answers and common visual diagnostic tools are difficult to reproduce on a large scale. This study investigates the behaviour of some automatic methods for threshold selection based on the generalized Pareto model for flood peak exceedances of the threshold and the Anderson–Darling test for fitting this model. In particular, the choice of a critical significance level to define an interval of acceptable values is addressed. First, automatic methods are investigated using a simulation study to assess fitting and prediction performance in a controlled environment. It is shown that P values approximated by an existing table of critical values can speed up computation without affecting the quality of the outcomes. Second, a case study compares automatically and manually selected thresholds for 285 sites across Canada by flood regime and super regions based on site characteristics. Correspondences are examined in terms of prediction of flood quantiles and trend analysis. Results show that trend detection is sensitive to the threshold selection method when studying the evolution of the number of peaks per year. Finally, a hybrid method is developed to combine automatic methods and is calibrated on the basis of super regions. The outcomes of the hybrid method are shown to more closely reproduce the estimates of the manually selected thresholds while reducing the model uncertainty.  相似文献   

Spatial-temporal variability of snow cover over the Amur River Basin inferred from MODIS daily snow products in recent decades     

XiaoLin Lu  WanChang Zhang  ShuHang Wang  Bo Zhang  QuanFu Niu  JinPing Liu  Hao Chen  HuiRan Gao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):418-429

MODIS snow products MOD10A1\MYD10A1 provided us a unique chance to investigate snow cover as well as its spatial-temporal variability in response to global changes from regional and global perspectives. By means of MODIS snow products MOD10A1\MYD10A1 derived from an extensive area of the Amur River Basin, mainly located in the Northeast part of China, some part in far east area of the former USSR and a minor part in Republic of Mongolia, the reproduced snow datasets after removal of cloud effects covering the whole watershed of the Amur River Basin were generated by using 6 different cloud-effect-removing algorithms. The accuracy of the reproduced snow products was evaluated with the time series of snow depth data observed from 2002 to 2010 within the Chinese part of the basin, and the results suggested that the accuracies for the reproduced monthly mean snow depth datasets derived from 6 different cloud-effect-removing algorithms varied from 82% to 96%, the snow classification accuracies (the harmonic mean of Recall and Precision) was higher than 80%, close to the accuracy of the original snow product under clear sky conditions when snow cover was stably accumulated. By using the reproduced snow product dataset with the best validated cloud-effect-removing algorithm newly proposed, spatial-temporal variability of snow coverage fraction (SCF), the date when snow cover started to accumulate (SCS) as well as the date when being melted off (SCM) in the Amur River Basin from 2002 to 2016 were investigated. The results indicated that the SCF characterized the significant spatial heterogeneity tended to be higher towards East and North but lower toward West and South over the Amur River Basin. The inter-annual variations of SCF showed an insignificant increase in general with slight fluctuations in majority part of the basin. Both SCS and SCM tended to be slightly linear varied and the inter-annual differences were obvious. In addition, a clear decreasing trend in snow cover is observed in the region. Trend analysis (at 10% significance level) showed that 71% of areas between 2,000 and 2,380 m a.s.l. experienced a reduction in duration and coverage of annual snow cover. Moreover, a severe snow cover reduction during recent years with sharp fluctuations was investigated. Overall spatial-temporal variability of Both SCS and SCM tended to coincide with that of SCF over the basin in general.  相似文献   

西北太平洋台风活动与大气季节内振荡   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

李崇银  潘静  田华  杨辉 《气象》2012,38(1):1-16

本文综合介绍了大气季节内振荡与西北太平洋台风活动关系的最新研究结果。主要内容是:大气MJO的活动对西北太平洋台风的生成有比较明显的调制作用,在MJO的活跃期与非活跃期西北太平洋生成台风数的比例为2:1;而在MJO活跃期,对流中心位于赤道东印度洋(即MJO第2～3位相)与对流中心在西太平洋地区(即MJO第5～6位相)时的比例也为2:1。在MJO的不同位相,西太平洋地区的动力因子和热源分布形势有很明显不同。在第2～3位相,各种因子均呈现出抑制西太平洋地区对流及台风发展的态势;而在第5～6位相则明显促进对流的发生发展。这说明MJO在不断东移的过程中,将影响和改变大气环流形势,最终影响台风的生成。对多台风年与少台风年850 hPa的30～60 d低频动能距平合成分析表明,在多台风年有两个低频动能的大值区,其中最显著的是低频动能正异常位于菲律宾以东15°N以南的西北太平洋地区,此区域正好为季风槽所在的位置。而少台风年的情况与多台风年相反,从阿拉伯海东部经印度半岛、孟加拉湾一直到我国南海地区,都是低频动能的大值区,最大的低频动能中心位于印度半岛和我国南海南部;而菲律宾以东的西北太平洋是低频动能的负距平区,季风槽偏弱,对台风生成发展不利。200 hPa速度势场清楚表明,多台风年(少台风年)在菲律宾以东的西北太平洋上表现为高层辐散(辐合),增强(减弱)该地区的上升气流,有利于(不利于)台风的生成。大气季节内振荡(ISO)对西北太平洋台风路径影响的研究表明,大气ISO)流场对台风路径预报有重要参考意义。其结果表明,台风生成时850 hPa低频气旋(LFC)的正涡度带(特别是最大正涡度线)走向往往预示着台风的未来走向;200 hPa的低频环流形势对台风的路径也有一定的指示作用,与200 hPa低频反气旋(LFAC)相联系的200 hPa强低频气流对台风起着引导气流的作用。  相似文献   

SEASONAL TRANSITION OF EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL MONSOON AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISM   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

朱志伟  何金海  祁莉 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(3):305-313

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and Climate Prediction Center(CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP) rain data are used to investigate the large scale seasonal transition of East Asian subtropical monsoon(EASM) and its possible mechanism.The key region of EASM is defined according to the seasonal transition feature of meridional wind.By combining the ’thermal wind’ formula and the ’thermal adaptation’ equation,a new ’thermal-wind-precipitation’ relation is deduced.The area mean wind directions and thermal advections in different seasons are analyzed and it is shown that in summer(winter) monsoon period,the averaged wind direction in the EASM region varies clockwise(anticlockwise) with altitude,and the EASM region is dominated by warm(cold) advection.The seasonal transition of the wind direction at different levels and the corresponding meridional circulation consistently indicates that the subtropical summer monsoon is established between the end of March and the beginning of April.Finally,a conceptual schematic explanation for the mechanism of seasonal transition of EASM is proposed.  相似文献   

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE POSITION VARIATION OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE DIABATIC HEATING DURING PERSISTENT INTENSE RAIN EVENTS IN YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS BASIN   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

王黎娟  陈璇  管兆勇  曾明剑 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(4):528-536

By using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China, relationships between the position variation of the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the diabatic heating during persistent and intense rains in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin are studied. The results show that the position variation of WPSH is closely associated with the diabatic heating. There are strong apparent heating sources and moisture sinks in both the basin (to the north of WPSH) and the north of Bay of Bengal (to the west of WPSH) during persistent and intense rain events. In the basin, Q 1z begins to increase 3 days ahead of intense rainfall, maximizes 2 days later and then reduces gradually, but it changes little after precipitation ends, thus preventing the WPSH from moving northward. In the north of Bay of Bengal, 2 days ahead of strong rainfall over the basin, Q 1z starts to increase and peaks 1 day after the rain occurs, leading to the westward extension of WPSH. Afterwards, Q 1z begins declining and the WPSH makes its eastward retreat accordingly. Based on the complete vertical vorticity equation, in mid-troposphere, the vertical variation of heating in the basin is favorable to the increase of cyclonic vorticity north of WPSH, which counteracts the northward movement of WPSH and favors the persistence of rainbands over the basin. The vertical variation of heating in the north of Bay of Bengal is in favor of the increase of anti-cyclonic vorticity to the west of WPSH, which induces the westward extension of WPSH.  相似文献   

2011年4月江西降水异常偏少的初步诊断分析     

马锋敏  张超美  张传江  廖敏 《气象与减灾研究》2012,(4):16-22

利用1959—2011年北半球500 hPa高度格点资料、74项环流特征量资料和1974—2011年NOAA OLR月平均资料,结合江西83个气象观测站的1959—2011年4月降水资料,对2011年4月江西降水异常偏少成因进行了初步诊断分析。结果表明：江西省4月降水有一定的周期性,2011年4月降水处于少雨期;La Ni觡a次年4月西太平洋副热带高压强度易偏弱,位置正常或偏南、偏东,导致向北输送的暖湿气流较常年明显偏弱;大西洋—欧洲环流呈E型分布,青藏高原位势高度明显偏高;赤道西太平洋附近对流活动偏强,我国大陆及东南沿海、赤道中太平洋东部附近对流活动偏弱是造成降水明显偏少的主要原因。  相似文献   

夏季东亚和西北太平洋地区的气候变异及其机理   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

陆日宇  富元海 《地球科学进展》2009,24(2):123-131

夏季东亚气候异常和西北太平洋地区有着密切的联系,表现为不同纬度间强烈的相互作用。由于这一地区的不同纬度间相互作用对东亚夏季气候异常具有重要的影响,最近20年,对这种相互作用的表现形式、三维空间分布、形成机理,及其与欧亚大陆遥相关波列和热带海温的关系等都做了大量的研究。对这些研究进行综述,侧重点放在近10年以来的研究工作,并对还需进一步研究的问题进行一些探讨。  相似文献   

陕西秋季降水变化特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

孙娴  魏娜  肖科丽 《应用气象学报》2010,21(3):360-365

利用1960—2009年陕西74个台站逐月降水资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用Mann-Kendall和REOF等方法分析了近50年陕西秋季降水变化时空分布及环流特征。研究表明:近50年来,陕西9月降水对整个秋季降水具有决定性作用,呈现出"北少南多"和"北多南少"的空间分布特征;当西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西偏北,纬向环流指数偏弱,海平面气压场为"西低东高"的形势,850 hPa风场上西北地区东部为西太平洋副热带高压外围的东南气流控制时,陕西秋季降水空间分布多呈现"北多南少"型。  相似文献   

ENSO循环与太平洋-北美型遥相关事件的关系     

杨丹宁  罗德海 《气候与环境研究》2014,19(3):278-289

利用1950~2009年的Nio3.4指数和冬季5个月逐日太平洋-北美型遥相关(PNA)指数,对ENSO冷、暖位相及中性年份冬季发生的PNA事件进行了统计分析,结果发现PNA事件个数有显著的差异。ENSO暖位相年份冬季的PNA+事件个数是PNA-事件个数的4.13倍,而冷位相年份的PNA-事件个数是PNA+事件个数的2.73倍。PNA事件指数和PNA事件对应的300 hPa流函数场合成分析结果显示ENSO暖(冷)位相年份的PNA+(PNA-)事件的强度较小,生命史较长,PNA-(PNA+)事件的强度较大生命史较短,位于北太平洋上空的南北向偶极子结构仅出现在PNA+事件过程的成熟阶段。同时,聚类分析也发现,ENSO暖(冷)位相年份的PNA+(PNA-)型的比例大于PNA-(PNA+)型,PNA+型波列结构中有太平洋区域的南北向偶极子结构,而PNA-波列结构中没有,与合成分析结果一致。通过计算北太平洋的300 hPa基本流发现,ENSO循环暖位相年份的副热带急流位置比ENSO循环冷位相年份的偏北,这解释了ENSO循环冷暖位相年份PNA+事件和PNA-事件发生频率的差异。由于中性年份也存在PNA事件,ENSO循环对PNA事件的强度与发生频率有一定的调制作用。  相似文献