Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joachim Grger  Heye Rumohr 《Journal of Sea Research》2006,55(4):266-277

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.  相似文献   

Developing a Marine Information System by Integrating Existing Ocean Models Using Object-Oriented Technology     

A. Jacob  T. Hamre  G. Evensen  K. A. Mughal 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):87-106

Information systems developed for different applications within the environmental domain have common characteristics, which can potentially be abstracted for sharing and reuse of design and software modules. This article presents an approach to designing for reuse by abstracting commonalities in the design of a Marine Information System (MIS), facilitating data management in a prototype operational monitoring, forecasting, and management system for the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. A detailed study of the requirements and data analysis was carried out, and Object-Oriented Technology (OOT) is employed to encapsulate abstractions and to promote reuse of code and design. This article identifies the Object-Oriented Frameworks (OOFW) required to build the MIS. It also provides guidelines to environmental scientists for restructuring legacy software and employing modern programming techniques.  相似文献   

Functional responses for zooplankton feeding on multiple resources: a review of assumptions and biological dynamics     

Wendy Gentleman  Andrew Leising  Bruce Frost  Suzanne Strom  James Murray 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2003,50(22-26):2847

Modelers often need to quantify the rates at which zooplankton consume a variety of species, size classes and trophic types. Implicit in the equations used to describe the multiple resource functional response (i.e. how nutritional intake varies with resource densities) are assumptions that are not often stated, let alone tested. This is problematic because models are sensitive to the details of these formulations. Here, we enable modelers to make more informed decisions by providing them with a new framework for considering zooplankton feeding on multiple resources. We define a new classification of multiple resource responses that is based on preference, selection and switching, and we develop a set of mathematical diagnostics that elucidate model assumptions. We use these tools to evaluate the assumptions and biological dynamics inherent in published multiple resource responses. These models are shown to simulate different resource preferences, implied single resource responses, changes in intake with changing resource densities, nutritional benefits of generalism, and nutritional costs of selection. Certain formulations are further shown to exhibit anomalous dynamics such as negative switching and sub-optimal feeding. Such varied responses can have vastly different ecological consequences for both zooplankton and their resources; inappropriate choices may incorrectly quantify biologically-mediated fluxes and predict spurious dynamics. We discuss how our classes and diagnostics can help constrain parameters, interpret behaviors, and identify limitations to a formulation's applicability for both regional (e.g. High-Nitrate-Low-Chlorophyll regions comprising large areas of the Pacific) and large-scale applications (e.g. global biogeochemical or climate change models). Strategies for assessing uncertainty and for using the mathematics to guide future experimental investigations are also discussed.  相似文献   

胶州湾东北部岸滩改造方案的讨论     

董吉田  吕常五 《海洋科学进展》1993,(4)

本文根据胶州湾东北部岸滩目前污染严重、脏乱不堪的现状及城市总体规划的要求.提出了胶州湾东北部岸滩的改造意见.着重从海洋动力、生态、水量平衡的角度论证了改造工程的必要性和可行性。  相似文献   

The Ectoparasitic Gastropod Boonea (= Odostomia) impressa: Population Ecology and the Influence of Parasitism on Oyster Growth Rates     

Marie E.  White  Eric N.  Powell Christopher L.  Kitting 《Marine Ecology》1984,5(3):283-299

Abstract. Boonea (= Odostomia) impressa is a common ectoparasite of oysters. In the laboratory, small oysters (Crassostrea virginica) parasitized by natural densities of B. impressa produced 75 % less new shell than unparasitized oysters. Shell deposition rates of previously parasitized oysters increased significantly after all B. impressa were removed. Thus, the decrease in growth rate, although significant, apparently was not permanent. B. impressa preferentially parasitized small, living oysters (≤2.5cm) in the field, even though a higher percentage of large, living oysters (>2.5cm) was available. The snails maintained an aggregated distribution on the oyster reef. The number of B. impressa per oyster clump was positively correlated with the number of living oysters per clump, however some clumps with few or no living oysters had many B. impressa. Thus, food availability only partially explained the pattern of distribution. B. impressa was very mobile. About 50 % of the population moved in one week. Reproduction occurred throughout the year with a peak period in May. Recruitment was greatest in July, however new recruits were observed throughout the year. The reduction in growth rate of parasitized oysters, the snaiľs propensity towards parasitizing small oysters and the snail's tendency to be contagiously distributed suggests that B. impressa potentially exerts a significant influence on the population structure and health of oyster populations.  相似文献   

南沙西部海域伸缩型右旋走滑双重构造系统及其动力学过程   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7  

刘海龄 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》1999,19(3):11-18

万纳断裂带为一典型的右旋走滑系统,由其南段前锋的拉奈—沙捞越走滑－收缩叠瓦扇、北段尾端的南海西南次海盆西南端走滑－伸展叠瓦扇和中段的万安盆地走滑－拉分双重构造所组成,其动力主要源自中生代末以来华南—印支陆缘岩石圈的拆沉作用和南海海底扩张,它的走滑拉分作用直接导致了万安盆地的产生,对该海域油气等资源的形成与聚集起了重要的控制作用。  相似文献   

大鹏湾夜光藻种群的季节变化和分布特征     

黄长江  齐雨藻  杞桑  吕颂辉  江天久 《海洋与湖沼》1996,27(5):493-498

于１９９０年３月－１９９２年６月对中国南海大鹏湾盐田附近海域的夜光藻种群动态及时空分布进行了综合调查，结果表明，夜光藻种群的出现期间一般为每年的１－６月，最早是１９９１年的１２月，娄量高峰期为３－５月，种群密度的波动极为显著；调查期间共发生８次赤潮，且都发生在３月初至５月初；大鹏湾夜光藻赤潮的发生特点是，赤潮的发生和消失突然，持续时间短，一般不超过３ｄ。  相似文献   

使用水块混合层模式模拟上层海洋的季节变化     

徐永福 《热带海洋学报》1994,(4)

使用块体混合层模式对一个固定海洋观测站所测的上层海洋之物理特性进行了模拟，结果发现了难以重复观测到的许多物理特征。文章提出了水块混合层模式，着重模拟了扩展湾流体系（ＥＧＳＳ）中的一个水块，在它被海流从佛罗里达海峡（２４°Ｎ，８０°Ｗ）带到挪威海（６８°Ｎ，１０°Ｅ）的过程中，其物理特性（其中包括温度、盐度、混合层深度和夹卷速度）随时间的变化。模拟结果较好地再现了所观测的物理特性的演化。  相似文献   

Estuary/ocean exchange and tidal mixing in a Gulf of Maine Estuary: A Lagrangian modeling study   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ata Bilgili  Jeffrey A. Proehl  Daniel R. Lynch  Keston W. Smith  M. Robinson Swift 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,65(4):607-624

A Lagrangian particle method embedded within a 2-D finite element code, is used to study the transport and ocean–estuary exchange processes in the well-mixed Great Bay Estuarine System in New Hampshire, USA. The 2-D finite element model, driven by residual, semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal constituents, includes the effects of wetting and drying of estuarine mud flats through the use of a porous medium transport module. The particle method includes tidal advection, plus a random walk model in the horizontal that simulates sub-grid scale turbulent transport processes. Our approach involves instantaneous, massive [O(500,000)] particle releases that enable the quantification of ocean–estuary and inter-bay exchanges in a Markovian framework. The effects of the release time, spring–neap cycle, riverine discharge and diffusion strength on the intra-estuary and estuary–ocean exchange are also investigated.The results show a rather dynamic interaction between the ocean and the estuary with a fraction of the exiting particles being caught up in the Gulf of Maine Coastal Current and swept away. Three somewhat different estimates of estuarine residence time are calculated to provide complementary views of estuary flushing. Maps of residence time versus release location uncover a strong spatial dependency of residence time within the estuary that has very important ramifications for local water quality. Simulations with and without the turbulent random walk show that the combined effect of advective shear and turbulent diffusion is very effective at spreading particles throughout the estuary relatively quickly, even at low (1 m²/s) diffusivity. The results presented here show that a first-order Markov Chain approach has applicability and a high potential for improving our understanding of the mixing processes in estuaries.  相似文献   

Nonlinear coupled dynamic response of offshore Spar platforms under regular sea waves     

A. K. Agarwal  A. K. Jain 《Ocean Engineering》2003,30(4):492-551

Many innovative floating offshore structures have been proposed for cost effectiveness of oil and gas exploration and production in water depths exceeding one thousand meters in recent years. One such type of platform is the offshore floating Spar platform. The Spar platform is modelled as a rigid body with six degrees-of-freedom, connected to the sea floor by multi-component catenary mooring lines, which are attached to the Spar platform at the fairleads. The response dependent stiffness matrix consists of two parts (a) the hydrostatics provide restoring force in heave, roll and pitch, (b) the mooring lines provide the restoring force which are represented here by nonlinear horizontal springs. A unidirectional regular wave model is used for computing the incident wave kinematics by Airy’s wave theory and force by Morison’s equation. The response analysis is performed in time domain to solve the dynamic behavior of the moored Spar platform as an integrated system using the iterative incremental Newmark’s Beta approach. Numerical studies are conducted for sea state conditions with and without coupling of degrees-of-freedom.  相似文献