Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Pan Liu  Jun Xia 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4398-4413

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.  相似文献   

区域可持续发展能力的能值与(火用)耦合分析模型构建     

樊新刚  仲俊涛  杨美玲  文琦  马振宁  米文宝 《地理学报》2019,74(10):2062-2077

可持续发展能力评价方法是识别人地协同规律、支撑科学决策的重要工具和热点需求。通过文献回顾与理论分析框架构建,耦合能值及?方法,提出自组织能力指数（SO）、生态压力指数（EP）、可持续发展能力指数（SC）构成的,基于热力学理论的可持续发展能力分析模型,利用文献荟萃法筛选17个典型发达国家1985年状态值计算SO与EP阈值,划分了4个阶段。利用中美两国1985-2015年特征对比验证,结果显示：① 2005年以前中国属“低自组织能力、低生态压力”阶段,之后进入“低自组织能力、高生态压力”阶段,存在低生态效率、规模扩张驱动特征;美国一直属“高自组织能力、高生态压力”阶段,存在高生态效率驱动、经济与生态脱钩特征,与全球生态足迹网络和世界自然基金会等的研究结果一致,模型具有较好适应性和可靠性。② 模型利用“获得?量/输入能值量”表达经济社会生态效率、“经济社会?损耗量/生态系统年产?量”表达生态压力,连接了经济社会对生态基底的熵化路径,可识别区域所处可持续发展阶段、分析水平变化和驱动因素。③ 模型以人类与生态并重的视角,从深度上反映经济社会的生态效率、从广度上评价生态空间被占用比例,具有宏观规模与微观效率分析相结合的优势,是对经典方法的补充。  相似文献   

Soil property variation mapping through data mining of soil category maps          下载免费PDF全文

Fei Du  A‐Xing Zhu  Lawrence Band  Jing Liu 《水文研究》2015,29(11):2491-2503

Spatial information on soil properties is an important input to hydrological models. In current hydrological modelling practices, soil property information is often derived from soil category maps by the linking method in which a representative soil property value is linked to each soil polygon. Limited by the area‐class nature of soil category maps, the derived soil property variation is discontinuous and less detailed than high resolution digital terrain or remote sensing data. This research proposed dmSoil, a data‐mining‐based approach to derive continuous and spatially detailed soil property information from soil category maps. First, the soil–environment relationships are extracted through data mining of a soil map. The similarity of the soil at each location to different soil types in the soil map is then estimated using the mined relationships. Prediction of soil property values at each location is made by combining the similarities of the soil at that location to different soil types and the representative soil property values of these soil types. The new approach was applied in the Raffelson Watershed and Pleasant Valley in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, United States to map soil A horizon texture (in both areas) and depth to soil C horizon (in Pleasant Valley). The property maps from the dmSoil approach capture the spatial gradation and details of soil properties better than those from the linking method. The new approach also shows consistent accuracy improvement at validation points. In addition to the improved performances, the inputs for the dmSoil approach are easy to prepare, and the approach itself is simple to deploy. It provides an effective way to derive better soil property information from soil category maps for hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Constitutive and numerical framework for modeling joints and faults in rock          下载免费PDF全文

Howard Schreyer  Deborah Sulsky 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(9):1253-1283

A three‐dimensional constitutive model for joints is described that incorporates nonlinear elasticity based on volumetric elastic strain, and plasticity for both compaction and shear with emphasis on compaction. The formulation is general in the sense that alternative specific functional forms and evolution equations can be easily incorporated. A corresponding numerical structure based on finite elements is provided so that a joint width can vary from a fraction of an element size to a width that occupies several elements. The latter case is particularly appropriate for modeling a fault, which is considered simply to be a joint with large width. For small joint widths, the requisite equilibrium and kinematic requirements within an element are satisfied numerically. The result is that if the constitutive equation for either the joint or the rock is changed, the numerical framework remains unchanged. A unique aspect of the general formulation is the capability to handle either pre‐existing gaps or the formation of gaps. Representative stress–strain plots are given to illustrate both the features of the model and the effects of changes in values of material parameters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simplified multi-block constitutive model predicting earthquake-induced landslide triggering and displacement along slip surfaces of saturated sand     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

Slopes consisting of saturated sand have recently moved down-slope tens or hundreds of meters under the action of earthquakes. This paper presents a simplified but accurate method predicting the triggering and displacement of such landslides. For this purpose, a simplified constitutive model simulating soil response of saturated sands along slip surfaces is proposed and validated. Then, this constitutive model is coupled with the multi-block sliding system model to predict the triggering and displacement of such slides. The multi-block model considers a general mass sliding on a trajectory which consists of n linear segments. The steps needed to apply this method are described in detail. The method was applied successfully to predict the triggering, the motion and the final configuration of the well-documented (a) Higashi Takezawa, (b) Donghekou and (c) Nikawa earthquake-induced slides.  相似文献   

基于OSM的浮动车轨迹数据校正方法     

胡向勇  郭圆 《测绘通报》2020,(10):139

浮动车轨迹数据具有覆盖范围广、更新周期短、获取成本低等特点，对于地图的生产和更新具有重要意义，但是由于受到卫星信号被遮挡及多路径效应的影响，其精度普遍较低。本文采用一种基于OSM作为参考数据的方式对浮动车轨迹数据进行校正。首先通过一种分层时空地图匹配的方式将轨迹数据与OSM进行匹配；然后采用引力模型对数据进行校正；最后在武汉市出租车轨迹数据上进行了试验。结果表明，本文提出的数据校正方法可以有效地提高浮动车轨迹数据的精度。  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic Tidal Model of the Persian Gulf Based on Spatially Variable Bed Friction Coefficient     

Mostafa Sohrabi Athar  Alireza A. Ardalan  Roohollah Karimi 《Marine Geodesy》2019,42(1):25-45

The aim of this study is to develop a two-dimensional hydrodynamic tidal model for the Persian Gulf (PG2017) using 2D-MIKE21 software. The advantages of present study is accounting for the spatial variation of bed friction coefficient besides a precise bathymetry together with a 23-year of combined records of satellite altimetry data. We found that the bed friction coefficient has a significant effect on sea level changes in the region under our modeling consideration. Since the tidal behavior in the northern part of the Qeshm Island is significantly different from the other parts of the Persian Gulf, to present a more accurate hydrodynamic tidal model, the Gulf is divided into two regions where the bed friction coefficient is modeled separately for each region. The root mean square value of the differences between the amplitude of dominant constituents; M2, S2, K1, and O1 derived from the PG2017 model and that of 98 altimetry and coastal tide gauge stations are respectively equal to 1.6, 1.9, 2.8, and 1.3?cm. Moreover, comparing the PG2017 model efficiency with the FES2014, OSU12, EOT11a, DTU10, and Admiralty models shows that the PG2017 model has an improvement of 22.1%, 47.2%, 43.2%, 44.2%, and 57.6% in terms of relative error, respectively.  相似文献   

Designing geotechnical structures with a proper stability criterion as a safety factor     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2016

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中国旅游城市生态安全系统评估与类型划分研究 ——基于节点权重约束网络DEA模型   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

秦晓楠  程钰 《地理科学》2019,39(1):156-163

采用 DPSIR概念模型作为旅游生态安全系统的基本形态,引入网络 DEA模型测度系统运行效率,从“投入-产出”的研究视角探究旅游生态安全系统内部作用机理。采用结构方程模型对网络 DEA模型的结构及权重加以限制,构建具有节点权重约束的网络 DEA评价模型,对主要旅游城市生态安全系统实例进行实证研究。研究结果认为：将生态安全系统分为自然运行阶段、管理反馈阶段2阶段进行效率评价,加权综合得出各旅游城市生态安全系统的综合评价值,以此为依据将样本城市划分为按系统效率的评价结果将其分划为绿色发展型、稳步发展型、高效发展型、双向提升型和管理能力缺失型,针对各类型旅游城生态安全系统特点提出改善其生态安全系统状况的建议。  相似文献   

Formation control of multiple underwater vehicles subject to communication faults and uncertainties     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

This paper proposes a novel approach to analyze and design the formation keeping control protocols for multiple underwater vehicles in the presence of communication faults and possible uncertainties. First, we formulate the considered vehicle model as the Port-controlled Hamiltonian form, and introduce the spring-damping system based formation control. Next, the dynamics of multiple underwater vehicles under uncertain relative information is reformulated as a network of Lur’e systems. Moreover, the agents under unknown disturbances generated by an external system are considered, where the internal model is applied to tackle the uncertainties, which still can be regulated as the Lur’e systems. In each case, the formation control is derived from solving LMI problems. Finally, a numerical example is introduced to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical approach.  相似文献