Analyzing snowfall variability over two locations in Kashmir,India in the context of warming climate     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2017

Present study focuses on examination snowfall variability over Gulmarg and Pahalgam of Kashmir Valley in India during past 31 years (1980–2010). Trends in temperature over the study area is also explored. Minimum and maximum temperature shows increasing trends which is consistent with increase in black carbon column mass density. Increase in black carbon mass density is attributed to urbanization over study area. Trends of minimum temperature is statistically significant. It is reported that snowfall over the Pahalgam shows decreasing trend except for the month of February and January. Pahalgam shows a significant decreasing trend in snowfall of about 48 mm per decade during March. Pahalgam and Gulmarg show seasonal decreasing trends of snowfall of about 15 mm and 1.8 mm per decade, respectively. These decreasing trends in snowfall are consistent with decadal increasing trends of about 1.2 °C and 0.8 °C in minimum temperature over Pahalgam and Gulmarg, respectively. Seasonal snowfall over both the regions shows decreasing trend (insignificant). Results reported in this study show a decrease of about 24.16% ± 9.86% per degree increase in minimum temperature over Pahalgam. Changing characteristics of snowfall in the context of anthropogenic warming present major challenges to the tourism and socioeconomic aspects over the Valley.  相似文献   

江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

杨宏毅  霍治国  杨建莹  张桂香  吴立  范雨娴 《应用气象学报》2017,28(2):237-246

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。  相似文献   

基于卫星遥感的洞庭湖水体面积变化及与水文的相关性          下载免费PDF全文

黄菊梅  韩沁哲  姚晟  蒋帅  黄海波 《中低纬山地气象》2022,46(1):27-31

该文利用2006-2020年洞庭湖水体遥感面积及水文资料,对洞庭湖水体面积变化特征及其与水文的相关性进行了探讨。结果表明洞庭湖水体面积离散程度较高且变幅大。岳阳市、益阳市、常德市水体面积分别占洞庭湖水体面积的68.62%、25.77%、5.61%。其中位于岳阳市的岳阳县、湘阴县、位于益阳市的沅江市水体面积分别占洞庭湖水体面积的34.89%、17.35%、23.52%。占比越大的县市水体面积与洞庭湖水体面积相关性越大。洞庭湖水体面积与城陵矶水位的相关性高于常德、益阳水位。2010-2020年洞庭湖水体年最大面积显著增大。洞庭湖水体面积与城陵矶水位4阶多项式曲线拟合相关性最优。此外,不同的卫星/仪器、算法、分辨率以及天气条件对洞庭湖水体面积会产生一定的影响,洞庭湖区强降水对洞庭湖水体面积影响较大。  相似文献   

中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

罗秋菊  罗倩文 《地理科学》2016,36(11):1729-1735

以中国展览业为例,立足于展览业和区域经济发展的空间分布特征,使用Moran’s I和Moran’s I散点图阐释展览业与区域经济之间的空间自相关性,分析纳入空间因素的空间计量经济模型相对于经典回归模型的优越程度,进而揭示展览业发展对区域经济的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示：① 中国展览业发展和区域经济水平在地理空间上分布都不均衡;② 展览业及区域经济皆呈现高高聚集（HH）、低低聚集（LL）两种空间聚集格局;③ 现阶段,中国展馆规模与区域经济之间存在正相关关系;④ SLM优于经典回归模型,展览业发展对区域经济存在显著的空间溢出效应,在展览经济预测研究中充分考虑区域经济增长过程中的空间效应十分必要。  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover and land surface temperature in Ganges-Brahmaputra delta: A comparative analysis between India and Bangladesh     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2016

Land use and land cover (LULC) change in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta (GBD) poses significant challenges towards future environmental sustainability of the region and requires regional scale monitoring of key bio-physical variables and changes in their inter-relationship over space and time. Focusing on the southern part of the lower GBD region along the international border of India and Bangladesh, this study examined the spatio-temporal variability of LULC change and its relationship with Land Surface Temperature (LST). Furthermore, LULC-LST relationships were compared between Indian and Bangladesh part and its trend in and around big cities (with more than 1 million population) and towns (with more than 100,000 population) was investigated. Results showed that LST changes were predominantly driven by LULC changes on both sides of the border. Urban growth is the dominant form of LULC change, and the rate of land change was faster in 2005–2010 time period than 1989–2005. Over the period of 21 years, mean January LST decreased by approximately 1.83 °C in Indian part and 1.85 °C in the Bangladesh part. Areas that changed from to rural from agricultural experienced decrease in mean LST, whereas those areas that changed to urban from either agriculture or rural, experienced increase in mean LST. The relationship between LULC and LST are same on both sides of the Indo-Bangladesh border. In bigger cities like Kolkata (in India) and Khulna (in Bangladesh), there is a high spatial variability in relationship between LULC and LST compared to large towns. The LULC-LST relationship in large towns in India was influenced by proximity to Kolkata and coastal areas, whereas in Bangladesh no such influence was evident. The results and the data produced in this study are crucial for monitoring LULC changes, for developing spatial decision support system, and thus will be helpful to address the current challenges of land management in the GBD region. Changes in the LULC and LST are important indicators of GBD's environmental health and access its vulnerability and thus the present findings serve as baseline information for future studies seeking to examine the impact of differential policies on the LULC change in the region.  相似文献   

普适型GPS用于黄河盐锅峡水位监测分析     

马中民  张双成  刘奇  黄观文  康前程  彭继轮 《南京气象学院学报》2021,13(2):187-193

黄河水文变化复杂,现有水位监测方法费时费力且不能很好满足时间分辨率和空间分辨率两个方面的需求.地基GPS-IR技术的出现为水位监测提供了新的手段,但目前大多数地基GPS-IR技术采用的接收机为高精度大地测量型接收机,成本高、时效性差,不适合大范围推广.首先介绍了普适型GPS接收机的组成,并对GPS数据观测质量进行了分析;其次给出了地基GPS-IR技术用于水位监测的基本原理;最后利用黄河盐锅峡GPS实测数据进行GPS-IR水位提取,以兰州水文站水位监测数据为参考分析了普适型GPS接收机反演水位的精度,得到了最佳RMSE为0.21 m的精度.实验结果表明,普适型GPS接收机可用于长时间水位监测.  相似文献   

GPS接收机内噪声水平的评价与检测方法   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

戴水财  朱建军  张学庄  唐利民 《测绘科学》2007,32(5):17-20

论文结合某品牌GPS接收机检测实例,提出了GPS接收机内噪声水平分布统计的评价方法,以及在超短基线场内GPS接收机内噪声水平的全新检测方法———多时段旋转检测台法。实例测试,按本方法得到的被测试GPS接收机内噪声水平标准差为0.38mm。由测试实例得到如下结论:本文的GPS接收机内噪声水平评价方法以及检测方法更加合理、可信;在超短基线场内多时段测得的同一基线长度互差应小于2mm;GPS接收机系统软件的抗噪性能对内噪声水平有着非常重要的影响。  相似文献   

基于LTE Cat-1的无线静力水准仪系统设计     

徐熊  余光华  张宇  李鸣  尹海博 《大地测量与地球动力学》2022,42(1):104-110

为解决工程中建筑结构不均匀沉降的监测问题,以连通器作为基本理论,使用嵌入式实时操作系统（FreeRTOS）,设计一种基于LTE Cat-1的无线静力水准仪系统。系统分为数据采集终端、数据基站和客户端3个部分,其中数据采集终端主要由压强传感器、ZigBee终端及Cortex-M3微控制器等组成,利用ZigBee终端建立多个数据采集节点;数据基站由ZigBee协调器、Cortex-M3微控制器、Wi-Fi模块及LTE Cat-1等组成,ZigBee协调器收集多个终端的数据,用户可通过PC端或移动端连接设备Wi-Fi对数据进行现场查看,LTE Cat-1模块将数据上传至服务器;客户端主要是针对质检中心或从事市政工程行业的人员设计的,方便查看现场监测结果。现场测试结果表明,该系统能够完成沉降数据的采集与稳定上传,测量精度达到mm级。  相似文献   

Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment of Extreme Water Levels Based on 60-Year Observation Data in Xiamen,China     

MIAO Qingsheng  YUE Xinyang  YANG Jinkun  WANG Zhifeng  XU Shanshan  YANG Yang  CHU Siqi 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2022,21(2):315-322

Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station.In these 11 typhoon systems,the astronomical tide component accounts for 71%-95%of the total water level.The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated,and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed.The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb(1996)and Dujuan(2015)are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr,respectively.The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10-100 yr return period are 5.8-11.1 cm.For the 100-yr return period,the total risks within 10,25,50,and 100 yr increase by 94.3%,85.4%,72.9%,and 54.4%,respectively,if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered.Assuming that typhoon Herb(1996)occurred during the highest astronomical tide,it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period.Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period,and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34%.  相似文献   

Climate changes detected through the world's longest sea level series     

Martin Ekman   《Global and Planetary Change》1999,21(4):741

The sea level series of Stockholm in the Baltic Sea, commencing already in 1774, is analysed in various ways together with contemporary climate data, in order to investigate long-term sea level changes and their relations to climate changes.First, a study of the eustatic rise of sea level, based on annual mean sea levels, is peformed, and compared with other sea level and climate studies. It is concluded that the general climatic rise of sea level has increased significantly (99.9%) from about 0.0 mm/year during the end of the Little Ice Age, to about 1.0 mm/year during the past century, characterized by melting of glaciers. Such sea level changes due to northern hemisphere climate variations since 800 A.D. have (hitherto) probably always kept within −1.5 and +1.5 mm/year, with an average fairly close to zero.Second, an investigation of the sea level variability, also based on annual mean sea levels, is performed together with temperature and wind variabilities. It is found that the interannual sea level variability of the Baltic Sea has decreased significantly (98%) from the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s; after that it has increased significantly (95%) again. Precisely the same is found to apply to winter climate or, more specifically, to the interannual winter temperature variability and the interannual winter wind variability. The common origin of all these long-term changes turn out to be two consecutive winter wind processes over the North and Baltic Seas, especially the Baltic entrance. From the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s, there has been a rapidly decreasing number of dominating winter winds from northeast, and after that there has been an increasing number of dominating winter winds from southwest. This may indicate corresponding long-term changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation.Third, using monthly mean sea levels together with corresponding wind data, seasonal variations are investigated. The seasonal sea level variation in the Baltic Sea has increased significantly (99%) since the early 1800s, together with a shift of the maximum from late summer to early winter. It is found that the main origin is a secular change of the winter wind conditions over the Baltic entrance, with increasing southwesterly winds in early winter. This might also be related to a long-term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation.  相似文献