数值模式初值的敏感性程度对四维同化的影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

郜吉东  丑纪范 《气象学报》1995,53(4):471-479

用著名的Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统作了共轭变分同化的数值试验。发现随着模式对初值敏感性程度的增加，用这种方法得到和模式相协调的初始场愈来愈困难，直到某些情况下的完全失败。这表明四维同化和可预报期限是联系在一起的。另一方面，随着方程不精确程度的增加，变分同化的效果愈来愈差，直到所做的预报无任何意义可言。如果在做变分同化的同时对模式参数也进行反演，就可使得基于Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统所做的预报效果大大提高。  相似文献   

区域资料四维同化试验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

朱宗申  马清云 《应用气象学报》1995,6(1):1-8

根据国家气象中心有限区分析预报系统的基本方案，设计一个以6小时为周期的间歇区域资料四维同化方案，对我国的两次暴雨过程进行两种不同粗细水平分辨率的资料四维同化和短期模式预报的试验。结果表明，由同化方案初值获得的短期预报明显好于LAFS方案的预报结果，高分辨率同化方案对预报的改进更明显。  相似文献   

Three-dimensional elastic wave scattering and diffraction due to a rigid cylinder embedded in an elastic medium by a point source     

Long-Far Hwang  John T. Kuo  Yu-Chiung Teng 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(3):548-576

The formal solutions of displacement field to the problem of elastic wave scattering and diffraction due to an infinitely long rigid cylinder embedded in an infinite elastic medium by an impulsive point source have been obtained in the integral form. The integrals for the reflected and the diffracted waves both in the shadow zone and in the illuminated zone are evaluated asymptotically for the early time motion by the Reisdue-Cagniard method and the Saddle-point-Cagniard method.Numerical results of the diffractedP, S andPS waves at a fixed circum-distance from the surface of the rigid cylinder show noticeably that (1) the energy partition for the diffractedS wave is small in comparison with that for the diffractedP wave, (2) the wave form of the diffractedS wave is broader and more diffused than that of the diffractedP wave, (3) the direction of the radial motions of the diffractedP andS waves varies as a function of the observational point, and (4) the energy partition for the diffractedP wave is much smaller than that for the direct or the reflectedP waves.This paper has been presented at the 46th Annual International Meeting of Society of Exploration Geophysicists in Houston, Texas, Oct. 28, 1976.  相似文献   

Travel-time residuals and three-dimensional velocity structure of Italy     

Roberto Scarpa 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(3):583-606

Jeffreys-Bullen P and PKP travel-time residuals observed at more than 50 seismic stations distributed along Italy and surrounding areas in the time interval 1962–1979, indicate the complex velocity pattern of this region. Strong lateral velocity inhomogeneities and low velocity zones are required to explain the observed pattern of residuals. In particular, late arrivals of about 1 sec are observed in the Apenninic mountain range, requiring both greater crustal thickness and low velocity layers, coherent with seismic refraction data and surface wave dispersion measurements. The seismic stations located in the Western and Eastern Alps indicate the presence of high velocities. In the Western Alps the strong azimuthal variation of residuals and the high values of early arrivals have a close relationship to the Ivrea body, an intrusive crustal complex characterized by a velocity as high as 7–7.2 km/sec.A travel-time inversion performed with theAki et al. (1977) block model, confirms the peculiar characteristics and the sharp variations in the lithosphere of the whole Italian region, with values of velocity perturbations between many adjacent blocks, ranging in size from 50 to 100 km, and independent from the earth parametrization chosen, reaching values up to 10% in the lithospheric part and 5% in the asthenosphere. 3-D inversion requires also high velocity along the Tyrrhenian coastal margin, equivalent to an uprise of major crustal and lithospheric discontinuities along this part of the Italian peninsula. Moreover low velocity material must be present in the northern part of the Adriatic foreland, in the lithosphere-asthenosphere system, closely related to the stress and seismicity pattern, and the lateral bending of the lithosphere in the same region.  相似文献   

Determining magma flow in sills,dykes and laccoliths and their implications for sill emplacement mechanisms     

Ken Thomson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,70(2):183-201

Three-dimensional seismic data from the Faeroe-Shetland Basin provides detailed information on the relationships between sills, dykes, laccoliths and contemporaneous volcanic activity. The data shows that sills are predominantly concave upwards, being complete or partial versions of radially or bilaterally symmetrical forms that possess flat inner saucers connected to a flat outer rim by a steeply inclined sheet. Such morphologies are only partially modified by pre-existing faults. Sills can be sourced from dykes or the steep climbing portions of deeper sills. Both sills and dykes can provide magma to overlying volcanic fissures and sills can be shown to feed shallow laccoliths. Magma flow patterns, as revealed by opacity rendering, suggest that sills propagate upwards and outwards away from the magma feeder. As an individual sill can consist of several leaves emplaced at different stratigraphic levels, and as a sill or dyke can provide magma to volcanic fissures, other sills and laccoliths, the data suggests that neutral buoyancy concepts may not provide a complete explanation for the mechanism and level of sill emplacement. Instead, the data suggests that the presence of lithological contrasts, particularly ductile horizons such as overpressured shales may permit sill formation at any level below the neutrally buoyant level. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Ken Thomson–deceased, April 2007  相似文献   

Impact of Doppler Radar Wind in Simulating the Intensity and Propagation of Rainbands Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Using MM5-3DVAR System     

S. Abhilash  Someshwar Das  S. R. Kalsi  M. Das Gupta  K. Mohankumar  John P. George  S. K. Banerjee  S. B. Thampi  D. Pradhan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1491-1509

Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.  相似文献   

A One-dimensional Ensemble Forecast and Assimilation System for Fog Prediction     

M. D. Müller  C. Schmutz  E. Parlow 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(6-7):1241-1264

A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts.  相似文献   

Comments on “Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation” by P. Pasquier and D. Marcotte     

Giansilvio Ponzini  Mauro GiudiciChiara Vassena 《Advances in water resources》2007

Pasquier and Marcotte [Pasquier P, Marcotte D. Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation. Adv Wat Res 2006;29:1934–52] propose some modifications to the Comparison Model Method (CMM), in order to apply it to transient 3D ground water flow data for conductivity identification. We present some remarks on that paper to improve the comprehension of the basic features of the CMM and of the real value of the novelties introduced by Pasquier and Marcotte.  相似文献   

基于进化方向遗传算法的四维变分资料同化方法   总被引：7，自引：5，他引：7  

王顺凤  沈桐立  张建伟  孙麟平 《南京气象学院学报》2002,25(6):740-746

数值天气预报模式初始时刻要素场的变分同化问题是一个非线性最优化问题。利用进化方向遗传算法（EDGA）求解该最优化问题，并对理想初始场作数值模拟，结果表明模拟的效果较好。  相似文献   

有限区域变分四维同化系统的设计和试验     

徐国强  沈桐立  覃丹宇 《南京气象学院学报》2002,25(6):764-771

使用共轭码技术，构造了中尺度模式的伴随模式，研究了模式侧边界条件。基于伴随模式技术的原理，设计了伴随同化和Derber同化方法两套方案；下降算法采用共轭梯度法，使用准真实资料，进行子同化数值试验和预报试验。结果表明，两套同化方案都取得了一定的同化效果，Derber同化方法比伴随同化更令人满意。证明了变分同化是提高预报准确率的一种非常有效的手段。  相似文献