Monitoring vegetation dynamics with medium resolution MODIS-EVI time series at sub-regional scale in southern Africa     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

Currently there is a lack of knowledge on spatio-temporal patterns of land surface dynamics at medium spatial scale in southern Africa, even though this information is essential for better understanding of ecosystem response to climatic variability and human-induced land transformations. In this study, we analysed vegetation dynamics across a large area in southern Africa using the 14-years (2000–2013) of medium spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS-EVI time-series data. Specifically, we investigated temporal changes in the time series of key phenometrics including overall greenness, peak and timing of annual greenness over the monitoring period and study region. In order to specifically capture spatial and per pixel vegetation changes over time, we calculated trends in these phenometrics using a robust trend analysis method. The results showed that interannual vegetation dynamics followed precipitation patterns with clearly differentiated seasonality. The earliest peak greenness during 2000–2013 occurred at the end of January in the year 2000 and the latest peak greenness was observed at the mid of March in 2012. Specifically spatial patterns of long-term vegetation trends allowed mapping areas of (i) decrease or increase in overall greenness, (ii) decrease or increase of peak greenness, and (iii) shifts in timing of occurrence of peak greenness over the 14-year monitoring period. The observed vegetation decline in the study area was mainly attributed to human-induced factors. The obtained information is useful to guide selection of field sites for detailed vegetation studies and land rehabilitation interventions and serve as an input for a range of land surface models.  相似文献   

1960～2018年中国高温热浪的线性趋势分析方法与变化趋势     

张嘉仪  钱诚 《气候与环境研究》2020,25(3):225-239

高温热浪直接影响人体健康和作物生长。研究全球变暖背景下我国高温热浪发生率的趋势是气候变化研究的基本问题之一,可为人们的生产生活等提供重要的科学信息。目前对于高温热浪趋势的研究大都使用最小二乘（Ordinary Least Squares,OLS）方法估计趋势,结合学生t检验判断趋势的统计显著性。本文审视了以往常用方法在研究我国高温热浪发生率的线性趋势时的适用性。首先,以2018年东北局部地区因当年高温日数异常多而形成离群值的例子展开,说明OLS方法估计趋势时对离群值非常敏感,造成虚假趋势。进一步,通过正态分布检验和自相关计算,发现1960~2018年中国至少有91.14%站点、90.06%格点的高温日数和92.18%站点、87.74%格点的热浪次数的序列不服从正态分布,而且多数存在自相关。采用一种不易受离群值影响并考虑自相关的非参数方法,本文对1960～2018年中国站点和格点、4个典型区域以及全国平均的高温日数和热浪次数的线性趋势做出了更为准确的估计。研究发现,高温日数显著增多的站点主要出现在华南和西北地区,热浪次数呈显著增多趋势的站点目前几乎仅限于华南地区和新疆的个别站点;区域平均而言,仅有华南区域和西北区域的高温日数和热浪次数是显著增多的,华北区域和东北区域趋势并不显著;全国平均的高温日数和热浪次数都是显著增多的。本文对高温热浪的趋势及其显著性估计、统计预测的方法选择上有重要参考价值。  相似文献   

2001-2010年内蒙古空中水汽含量时空分布特征及变化趋势分析     

闫宾  邢启明  王靖婷  任晓萌 《内蒙古气象》2012,(4):6-7,19

利用2001年1月至2010年12月内蒙古地区12个探空站的资料,求算全区空中水汽含量,对其时空分布特征及变化趋势进行分析.分析结果表明,近10a来,1月份内蒙古地区月平均空中水汽含量最低只有0.303cm;7月份月平均空中水汽含量最大达到3.106cm;空中水汽含量高值区在河套地区有西凸的倾向;空中水汽含量和降水量分布有正相关关系;逐年平均空中水汽含量处于缓慢的减少过程中.  相似文献   

121 a 梅雨序列及其时变特征分析   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

杨静  钱永甫 《气象科学》2009,29(3):285-290

对2001--2005年长江中下游梅雨期进行了划分。确定的梅雨参数包括梅雨集中期、梅雨长度、梅雨量、梅雨强度、入梅日期和出梅日期等。然后对1885--2005年共121a的长江中下游5站逐年的梅雨参数进行时间演变分析。从各梅雨参数趋势变化上可估计,在未来10a里,梅雨量仍将偏多,梅雨长度将偏长,入梅日期将偏早,出梅日期也将偏早。对梅雨参数进行Morlet小波分析得出,从1980s开始,入梅日期和出梅日期都出现明显的2～3a和6a的年际振荡周期;入梅日期还出现明显的12a左右的年代周期,出梅日期出现了16a左右的年代际周期。进入1990s后,梅雨长度出现了8a的年际周期,梅雨量则出现明显的4a和8a的年际周期以及一个近16a的年代际周期。  相似文献   

陇西祖厉河流域降水插值方法的对比分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

赵传燕  冯兆东  南忠仁 《高原气象》2008,27(1):208-214

降水作为五水转化和水量平衡的一个组成部分,在土壤-植被-大气连续体物质与能量转化中起着重要的作用,是分布式水文模型中的重要参量.本研究选择了陇西黄土高原祖厉河流域,采用5种空间插值方法,对该区域降水的时空分布规律进行研究.经分析比较,空间插值法中趋势面方法最佳.趋势面方法经统计模型调整,使得降水模拟精度有所提高.从模拟结果来看:该流域降水呈现明显的纬度地带性分布,自南向北逐渐减少;降水受地形影响较大,海拔高度每降低100 m,降水量平均减少20 mm;流域绝大地区多年平均降水量分布在280～430 mm范围内.该高时空分辨率的降水模拟模型对区域水资源分析及生态环境治理有着重要的意义.  相似文献   

苏北南通海涂近期冲淤动态及其开发   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

陈宏友 《海洋科学》1990,14(2):28-35

  相似文献   

近40年来甘肃省降水的变化特征   总被引：34，自引：10，他引：24  

林纾  陆登荣 《高原气象》2004,23(6):898-904

利用1960—2003年甘肃省59个测站逐日降水资料,研究了甘肃省四季和年降水量及雨日的气候变化特征。结果表明,平均年降水量和雨日的空间分布非常相似。河西和白银市的年降水量的趋势系数为正,省内其它地区为负;河西大部和甘南部分地区的年雨日的趋势系数为正,省内其它地区为负。线性倾向估计的结果表明,年降水量线性倾向值的零线基本以黄河为界,河西在增加,河东在减少,减少最明显的区域在徽县和康县盆地;雨日增加主要在河西西部偏南地区、沿祁连山的大部分地区及临夏以及甘南等海拔相对较高的地区,中部和陇东南的雨日在减少。雨日增多的地方降水量也在增加,反之亦然。全省年降水量和年雨日在1990年代均为低谷,而在21世纪初又都有上升趋势。降水量突变在1990年代中期;雨日突变河西在1960年代后期,河东在1970年代后期和1990年代中期。冬季降水量及雨日表现全省性大范围的增加趋势,秋季降水量及雨日亦呈全省性减少趋势;而春、夏季的降水量及雨日变化趋势则是地区性的。  相似文献   

中国降水的季节性   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姚世博  姜大膀  范广洲 《大气科学》2017,41(6):1191-1203

本文使用一套基于中国气象局所属的2416个台站数据所得的高分辨降水资料,对1961~2013年中国降水季节性进行了研究。就全国平均而言,各季节降水占全年降水百分率最高的为夏季（56.5%）,春季（19.3%）和秋季（18.9%）次之,冬季（5.3%）最少;针对不同地区,各季节降水百分率存在很大差异,例如华南春季降水最多、东北至高原一线秋季降水大于春季降水。春、夏两季降水百分率高值（低值）区域略呈现出降水百分率减少（增多）趋势,秋季整体上略微减少,冬季则显著增加;季节降水百分率的变率整体表现为夏季大而冬季小,其西部的变率与地形为显著负相关,东部变率的大值区位置随季节变化;秋冬两季的降水百分率变率有显著增加,各季节不同地区变率的变化趋势存在明显差异。  相似文献   

中国1961—2016年夏季持续和非持续性极端降水的变化特征     

贺冰蕊  翟盘茂 《气候变化研究进展》2018,14(5):437-444

基于国家气象信息中心提供的1961—2016年2400多站逐日降水观测资料,根据百分位法确定极端降水,对中国夏季持续（持续2 d及以上）和非持续性（持续1 d）极端降水事件的变化特征进行了研究。结果表明：在气候变暖背景下,以江淮流域为代表,中国大部分地区极端降水量趋于增多,但华北、西南及西部部分地区趋于减少;除内蒙古中部、四川等地以外,中国大部极端降水对总降水的贡献呈增多趋势。进一步对华北、江淮、华南、西南4个代表区域进行分析,发现华北、西南地区的持续和非持续性极端降水量都呈减少趋势,持续性极端降水量的减少更突出,极端降水更多以非持续性形式出现;江淮、华南一带,两类极端降水量都呈增多趋势,持续性极端降水量的增加更明显,极端降水更多以持续性形式出现。  相似文献   

Conservation-induced resettlement as a driver of land cover change in India: An object-based trend analysis     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2016

Located in the foothills of the Indian Himalaya, Rajaji National Park was established to protect and enhance the habitat of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris). In 2002 the Van Gujjars, indigenous forest pastoralists, were voluntarily resettled from the Chilla Range (an administrative unit of Rajaji National Park) to Gaindikhata, a nearby area where they were granted land for agriculture. In this study we used a variety of remote sensing approaches to identify changes in land cover associated with the resettlement. The methods comprise two main approaches. First, we used object-based image analysis (OBIA) to identify the pre-resettlement land cover classes of use areas (representing agricultural expansion and adjacent areas of grazing, and collection of fuelwood and fodder) and recovery areas (representing areas where settlements were removed, and the adjacent areas of resource use). Secondly, we used trend analysis to assess the gradual and abrupt changes in vegetation that took place in use and recovery areas. To conduct the trend analysis we used BFAST (Breaks For Additive Season and Trend), which separates seasonal variation from long-term trends, and identifies breaks that can be linked back to disturbances or land cover changes. We found that the OBIA classification yielded high average class accuracies, and we were able to make class distinctions that would have been difficult to make using a traditional pixel-based approach. Pre-resettlement, the recovery areas were classified as mixed forest and riparian vegetation. In contrast, the use areas were classified primarily as grass dominated, brush dominated, and plantation forest, and were located relatively far away from riparian areas. Following the resettlement, the trend analysis showed a sudden change in the seasonal variation of NDVI in areas converted to agriculture. Areas neighboring the new agricultural land experienced sudden decreases in NDVI, suggestive of disturbances, at a higher rate than the same land cover types elsewhere. At the same time, these neighboring areas experienced a gradual overall increase in NDVI which could be caused by an expansion of leafy invasive shrubs such as Lantana camara in areas heavily used for biomass collection. The recovery areas also experienced a gradual increase in NDVI as well as sudden breaks to this trend, but we lacked evidence to connect these changes to the resettlement. Our findings support the claim that the resettlement has shifted pressure from more ecologically valuable to less ecologically valuable land cover types, and suggest that to some degree resource use pressure has increased outside the park. The study employs a novel synthesis of OBIA and trend analysis that could be applied to land change studies more broadly.  相似文献