Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications     

Dao Hua Zhang  Tsz Leung Yip  Chiu-On Ng 《Marine Policy》2009

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.  相似文献   

Truncated flame structures within a deposit of the Indian Ocean Tsunami: evidence of syn‐sedimentary deformation     

DAN MATSUMOTO  HAJIME NARUSE  SHIGEHIRO FUJINO  APICHART SURPHAWAJRUKSAKUL  THANAWAT JARUPONGSAKUL  NORIHIKO SAKAKURA  MASAFUMI MURAYAMA 《Sedimentology》2008,55(6):1559-1570

This study reveals the three‐dimensional morphology and syn‐sedimentary formation processes of a deformation structure termed ‘truncated flame structures’ which is found in a terrestrial tsunami deposit in southern Thailand that formed during the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The structure was found at the boundary between a lower fine‐grained layer and an upper coarse‐grained layer that are related to two runup events. In order to confirm the morphology of the structure, the authors excavated two trenches and an opencast pit. When viewed in a cross‐section oriented parallel to the direction of the runup current, the deformed boundary has an irregularly bulging profile, similar to that observed in flame structures. The protruding structures are inclined towards the downstream direction of the runup current, and are truncated horizontally along their upper surface by parallel laminations in the overlying layer. When viewed in a cross‐section oriented perpendicular to the current direction, it appears that parts of the upper layer descend into the lower layer as lobate masses. In places, these masses are completely detached from the main part of the upper layer, forming circular or elliptical shapes. The contact between the lower layer and the main part of the upper layer is a planar truncation surface. Opencast excavation of the contact surface revealed that the deformed structures have flat, sinuous horseshoe crests that open in a downstream direction. It is possible for the runup current to generate shear stress such that it deforms the boundary into a truncated flame structure. Moreover, the observations made in this study indicate the syn‐sedimentary development of the structure: deformation and truncation occurred simultaneously in association with the runup current that formed the upper layer. Truncated flame structures can be used as a criterion in identifying the syn‐sedimentary deformation of substrate: the structures are indicative of unidirectional flow with sufficiently high shear velocity to deform unconsolidated substrate. As in the present case, the truncated flame structures may be characteristic of tsunami events that involve strong unidirectional currents on land due to the extraordinarily long wave period of tsunamis, rather than other events such as storm surges or flooding.  相似文献   

Developing tsunami warnings from numerical model output     

S. C. R. Allen  D. J. M. Greenslade 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(1):35-52

A method is introduced for issuing tsunami warnings in the Australian region based on numerical model output. The method considers the maximum modelled wave amplitude within pre-defined coastal waters zones and uses this as a proxy for the potential impact on the coast. A three-level stratified warning is proposed: (1) No threat, (2) Marine threat and (3) Land threat. This method is applied to several case studies and the resulting warning characteristics are shown. While the method has its limitations, it is a significant improvement over current operational warning strategies, which are typically based solely on the magnitude of the earthquake and distance from the source.  相似文献   

High energy coastal sedimentary deposits; an evaluation of depositional processes in Southwest England     

I. D. L. Foster  A. J. Albon  K. M. Bardell  J. L. Fletcher  T. C. Jardine  R. J. Mothers  M. A. Pritchard  S. E. Turner 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1991,16(4):341-356

Sediments left by coastal flooding have been observed worldwide and have been variously ascribed to the action of storm surges and tsunami waves. To date, no study has attempted to unequivocally establish on stratigraphical, sedimentological, and palaeoecological grounds the means by which these two different processes might be distinguished in coastal sedimentary sequences. This paper examines the evidence for historical storm surges and tsunamis and shows that both high magnitude events have been documented over the past 250 years in southwest England. Sand layers of varying thickness are present within Holocene lagoonal and peat sequences of several shallow lakes of the Scilly Isles. Detailed analysis of Big Pool, St Agnes, indicates that the basal peats date from around 1000 BP. Within the basal peats are numerous thin sand layers. Above the basal peat is an extensive sand layer 15 to 40 cm thick. The base of this latter layer probably dates from the early to mid 18th century. Particle size, grain surface morphology, diatom, and mineral magnetic studies are used to try and determine the most likely mode of deposition. The results of all analyses are inconclusive, but the weight of evidence suggests that the increasing frequency of thin sand layers in the upper part of the basal peat may be related to the increasing frequency and intensity of Atlantic storms during the Little Ice Age superimposed upon a rising sea level. The thick sand layer may have been deposited by the tsunami wave generated by the Lisbon earthquake of November 1,1755. Due to the difficulties in distinguishing depositional processes in coastal environments known to have been affected by storm surges and tsunami waves, it is suggested that generally accepted sedimentological techniques are inadequate for discriminating depositional processes in coastal environments.  相似文献   

Tsunamis in and near Greece and their relation to the earthquake focal mechanisms     

B. C. Papazachos  P. P. Dimitriu 《Natural Hazards》1991,4(2-3):161-170

The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).  相似文献   

Use of tsunami waveforms for earthquake source study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kenji Satake  Hiroo Kanamori 《Natural Hazards》1991,4(2-3):193-208

Tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges, like seismic waves recorded on seismograms, can be used to study earthquake source processes. The tsunami propagation can be accurately evaluated, since bathymetry is much better known than seismic velocity structure in the Earth. Using waveform inversion techniques, we can estimate the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on the fault plane from tsunami waveforms. This method has been applied to several earthquakes around Japan. Two recent earthquakes, the 1968 Tokachi-oki and 1983 Japan Sea earthquakes, are examined for calibration purposes. Both events show nonuniform slip distributions very similar to those obtained from seismic wave analyses. The use of tsunami waveforms is more useful for the study of unusual or old earthquakes. The 1984 Torishima earthquake caused unusually large tsunamis for its earthquake size. Waveform modeling of this event shows that part of the abnormal size of this tsunami is due to the propagation effect along the shallow ridge system. For old earthquakes, many tide gauge records exist with quality comparable to modern records, while there are only a few good quality seismic records. The 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankaido earthquakes are examined as examples of old events, and slip distributions are obtained. Such estimates are possible only using tsunami records. Since tide-gauge records are available as far back as the 1850s, use of them will provide unique and important information on long-term global seismicity.  相似文献   

Analysis and automatic processing in near-field of eight 1992–1994 tsunamigenic earthquakes: Improvements towards real-time tsunami warning     

F. Schindelé  D. Reymond  E. Gaucher  E. A. Okal 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):381-408

We study eight tsunamigenic earthquakes of 1992–1994 with data from single near-field 3-component long-period stations. The analysis is made from the standpoint of tsunami warning by an automatic process which estimates the epicentral location and the seismic moment through the variable-period mantle magnitudeM _m . Simulations of early warning based on the real-time computation of the seismic moment are also tested with this system, which would give a justified warning in each region of tsunami potentiality. By exploiting the dependence of moment rate release with frequency, the system has the capability of recognizing both tsunami earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua and 1994 Java events, as well as instances of the opposite case of low-frequency deficiency, interpreted as indicating a deeper than normal source (1993 Guam event). We report both the results of delayed-time processing of the near-field stations, and the actual real-time warnings at PPT, which confirm the former.  相似文献   

Source characteristics of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake inferred from teleseismic body waves     

Masayuki Kikuchi  Hiroo Kanamori 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):441-453

We analyzed the broadband body waves of the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake to determine the nature of rupture. The rupture propagation was represented by the distribution of point sources with moment-rate functions at 9 grid points with uniform spacing of 20 km along the fault strike. The moment-rate functions were then parameterized, and the parameters were determined with the least squares method with some constraints. The centroid times of the individual moment-rate functions indicate slow and smooth rupture propagation at a velocity of 1.5 km/s toward NW and 1.0 km/s toward SE. Including a small initial break which precedes the main rupture by about 10 s, we obtained a total source duration of 110 s. The total seismic moment isM _o =3.4×10²⁰ Nm, which is consistent with the value determined from long-period surface waves,M _o =3.7×10²⁰ Nm. The average rise time of dislocation is determined to be 10 s. The major moment release occurred along a fault length of 160 km. With the assumption of a fault widthW=50 km, we obtained the dislocationD=1.3 m. From andD the dislocation velocity isD=D/0.1 m/s, significantly smaller than the typical value for ordinary earthquakes. The stress drop =1.1 MPa is also less than the typical value for subduction zone earthquakes by a factor of 2–3. On the other hand, the apparent stress defined by 2E _s /M _o , where andE _s are respectively the rigidity and the seismic wave energy, is 0.037 MPa, more than an order of magnitude smaller than . The Nicaragua tsunami earthquake is characterized by the following three properties: 1) slow rupture propagation; 2) smooth rupture; 3) slow dislocation motion.  相似文献   

论震积作用和震积岩   总被引：93，自引：2，他引：93  

杜远生  韩欣 《地球科学进展》2000,15(4):389-394

地震是一种灾害性的地质事件。地震及其引发的海啸、重力流可以形成震积岩、海啸岩和震浊积岩。在地震过程中,震积作用可以形成特殊的构造标志(地震断裂层、地裂缝、微同沉积断裂、微褶皱纹理、重力断层等)、沉积和成岩标志(砂岩脉、泥岩脉、泥晶脉,即磨牙(molar tooth)构造、枕状层、砂火山、泥火山、同沉积变形构造、丘状层理等)。地震沉积组合包括原地震积岩(A,包括震裂岩、震褶岩、自碎屑角砾岩、内碎屑副角砾岩等)、海啸岩(B,由具丘状层理、平行层理的碎屑岩或内碎屑灰岩组成)、震浊积岩(C,由具块状层理、递变层理或玻马序列的粗碎屑岩或碎屑灰岩组成)及背景沉积(D)4个单元,它们组合成A-B-C-D、A-B-D、A-C-D、A-D、B-D、C-D等6种类型的沉积序列。  相似文献   

Sedimentary heterogeneity and petrophysical characterization of Barremian tsunami and barrier island/inlet deposits: The Aliaga outcrop as a reservoir analogue (Galve sub-basin,eastern Spain)     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2016

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