Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows     

Ragab Ragab  Alexandra Kaelin  Muhammad Afzal  Ioanna Panagea 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(11):1856-1871

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.  相似文献   

The role of research networks for science-policy collaboration in coastal areas     

T.A. Stojanovic  I. Ball  R.C. Ballinger  G. Lymbery  W. Dodds   《Marine Policy》2009,33(6):901

This paper reviews the approach taken by several UK coastal partnerships in developing research strategies and programmes. It reports on the status of these research initiatives and describes how the co-ordination and communication of scientific research have been approached through active partnerships with universities and the wider research community. Results of semi-structured interviews are followed by in-depth case studies of research networks on the Sefton Coast (focusing on coastal morphology) and the Severn Estuary (focusing on coastal change and climate change impacts). The results reveal the constraints and opportunities that exist in bringing together a variety of knowledge holders in the coastal zone. The paper identifies key elements of these initiatives and highlights lessons that can be applied to the development of other research initiatives in order to achieve science supported, ecosystem-based management.  相似文献   

Probable Neolithic footprints preserved in inter-tidal peat at Kenfig, South Wales (UK)     

Matthew R. Bennett  Silvia Gonzalez  Jason Kirby 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2010,121(1):66-76

Holocene footprints have been reported from several locations around the UK coast preserved within inter-tidal sediments. These sediments are normally fine-grained silts, sands and clays. Here we report potential human footprints preserved in the lower of two inter-tidal peat units exposed on the foreshore at Kenfig in South Wales. The lower peat layer pre-dates 3810 ± 40 BP and its maximum age is constrained by two dates, one of 4930 ± 50 BP and another of 5110 ± 50 BP. The prints may have formed at any point within this time interval. Both peat units formed in a salt marsh, or fen environment, as indicated by the analysis of both diatoms and pollen and have been tentatively assigned to the middle Wentlooge Formation within the Holocene lithostratigraphy established for the Severn Estuary Holocene sequence. The footprints were digitised using an optical laser scanner and are compared to other Holocene human footprints exposed on the Sefton Coast in North West England. In comparison the Kenfig prints have poor anatomical form which may be the result of both the substrate and post-depositional modification. The paper demonstrates the value of using optical laser scanning in the data capture and analysis of transitory archaeological and geological trace evidence.  相似文献   

Implementing the UNCTAD Code of Conduct: The UK Merchant Shipping (Liner Conferences) Act, 1982     

Ademuni Odeke 《Marine Policy》1984,8(1):56-63

This article analyses the UK legislation which will implement the UNCTAD Code of Conduct for Liner Conferences. The historical background to the Merchant Shipping (Liner Conferences) Act, 1982 is outlined and the author points out the relative decline of the UK merchant fleet in the face of competition from developing maritime nations, socialist countries and the USA. Provisions in the UK act curtailing the provisions of the Code are described. UK opposition to the cargo sharing and flag preference provisions of the Code is described and the article concludes by arguing that, although the Code does not satisfy all the UK demands, it remains the best option in a world increasingly dominated by protectionism.  相似文献   

Genetic techniques for livestock breeding: Restructuring institutional relationships in agriculture     

David Gibbs  Lewis Holloway  Ben Gilna  Carol Morris 《Geoforum》2009,40(6):1041-1049

This paper explores some of the key institutional transformations in livestock breeding associated with the increasing significance of genetic techniques, situating this within an assessment of an emerging agricultural bioeconomy. Focusing on beef cattle and sheep breeding in the United Kingdom, the paper examines how a move towards the involvement of international and corporate interests in livestock breeding is restructuring the network of institutional interests affecting the knowledge and decision making of individual breeders. The paper suggests that the structural transformation of beef cattle and sheep breeding is complicated by the need for negotiation between breeders’ ‘traditional’ knowledge-practices and the ‘geneticised’ techniques being made available to them. We are thus seeing the emergence of new and complex interactions between the major actors which are reconfiguring power relationships in the UK livestock breeding sector.  相似文献   

Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes     

Alison L. Kay 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14137

Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide-ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation-based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias-correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time-slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.  相似文献   

Atmospheric inputs of trace metals to the northeast Atlantic Ocean: the importance of southeasterly flow     

Lucinda Spokes  Tim Jickells  Kym Jarvis 《Marine Chemistry》2001,76(4)

The study of aerosols and rainwater presented here demonstrates that episodic atmospheric deposition events associated with southeasterly flow are quantitatively significant for large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean. This paper considers aluminium and manganese, with predominantly crustal sources, and lead and zinc, which are mobilised into the atmosphere primarily through anthropogenic activity. High levels of all trace metals are associated with southeasterly flow from Europe as the air passes over heavily populated and industrialised regions before reaching the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Fluxes calculated using the 1% HNO₃ acid soluble metal concentration show that, although the climatological norm for this area is westerly flow, short-lived southeasterly transport events dominate the input of trace metals to this ocean region. This material may be toxic to phytoplankton or may be represent a new source of nutrients to the biological community. A significant decrease in atmospheric lead levels in polluted air is seen between June 1996 and May 1997, reflecting the decrease in use of leaded fuels in Europe. Comparing atmospheric flux values to sediment trap metal fluxes shows that the atmosphere represents the dominant source of zinc to the deep ocean, whereas an additional, non-atmospheric, manganese source this required, perhaps from mobilisation of sedimentary material from the continental shelf or long range advection of manganese rich Saharan material.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and origin of elements in some UK coals   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

D. A. Spears  Y. Zheng 《International Journal of Coal Geology》1999,38(3-4)

Twenty-four UK coals ranging in rank with 4.6%–37.6% volatile matter were analysed for 46 major and trace elements. The samples were obtained from the UK Coal Bank and are representative of the major UK coal fields. The major element distributions are interpreted in terms of the mineralogical variations—quartz and kaolinite are largely responsible for the Si and Al, carbonates for Ca and Mg and pyrite for Fe. Also exerting an influence in some samples are siderite, Al-phosphate minerals and illite. Based on statistical relationships with the major elements, Rb, Cr, Th, Ce, Zr, Y, Ga, La, Ta, Nb and V are thought to be mainly present in the clay minerals, and As, Mo, Sb, Tl, Se and Bi and Pb are probably present in pyrite. Strontium and Ba are concentrated in a restricted number of samples related to the phosphate minerals. Germanium is the only element for which a major organic association can be demonstrated. Elements with an indirect association with the organic matter are Na, Cl, and Br in porefluids and possibly Te. The ash content is controlled mainly by the detrital input and the trace elements related to the ash content are therefore those elements associated with the clay minerals. Variations with rank would appear to be mainly related to the moisture content (porefluids). The trace elements associated with the quartz and clay minerals are thought to be dominantly detrital in origin. The non-detrital elements, essentially those contained in pyrite, are thought to have been incorporated in the depositional environment from waters with enhanced salinities through seawater ingress, hence there are positive relationships between S and trace element concentrations.  相似文献   

Morphology of riffle–pool sequences in the River Severn,England     

Paul A. Carling  Harriet G. Orr 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2000,25(4):369-384

Despite the occurrence of riffle–pool sequences in many rivers there are few data concerning riffle–pool unit morphology. Of many criteria proposed to identify riffle–pool units, only three methods can be regarded as objective and robust. These are the ‘zero‐crossing’, the ‘spectral analysis’ and the ‘control‐point’ methods. In this paper statistics are developed using the first two of these methods to describe the streamwise morphology of 275 riffles and 285 pools which form a continuous 32·1 km reach of the bed of the River Severn in Shropshire, England. Yalin's theoretical relationship between the average riffle:pool unit length ( λ _p) and channel width ( W ), λ _p = 3 W , applies to the River Severn. Reach‐average riffle height ( H ) is a constant proportion of bankfull depth ( h ); typically H ≅ 0·16 h . Riffle height is a positive function of riffle length. Pool depth is a positive function of pool length. However, both riffle length and pool length increase more rapidly than the bed‐level amplitude, such that long riffles or pools are relatively ‘flat’. As channel gradient reduces, bedforms flatten and become more asymmetric as riffle stoss sides and the proximal slope of pools lengthen at the expense of riffle lee sides and pool distal slopes. The statistical relationships between riffle steepness (H/L) and water depth are similar to those for equilibrium subaqueous dunes. The Severn data are consistent with Yalin's theoretical analysis relating riffle bedform length (L _r) to water depth, i.e. L _r = α2π h, wherein α ≅ 1 for steep near‐equilibrium bedforms but α ≅ 2 to 3 as the relative depth decreases and riffles become long, low features. Theoretical consideration and turbulence data indicate that the frequency of coherent turbulent‐flow structures associated with the riffle–pool mixing length in the Severn should be of the order of 50 to 100 s. The morphological similarity of the steepest River Severn riffles with dunes raises intriguing questions with respect to self‐similar, convergent organization of periodic alluvial bedforms and to bedform dynamic classification particularly. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stable carbon isotope variations in northwest Europe during the last glacial–interglacial transition     

Chris S. M. Turney  David J. Beerling  Douglas D. Harkness  J. John Lowe  E. Marian Scott 《第四纪科学杂志》1997,12(4):339-344

Stable carbon isotope data that span part of the last glacial–interglacial transition (ca. 14-9 ka ¹⁴C BP; ca. 15–11 ka cal. BP), and which derive from organ-specific plant macrofossils recovered from two lake sediment profiles in the UK and one in Norway, are compared. The recorded temporal variations show similar trends, which, over a millennial time-scale appear to parallel the main drift in δ¹⁸O as determined for the GRIP ice-core. It is postulated that some smaller scale variations in the δ¹³C profiles may reflect the shorter term oscillations in δ¹⁸O values evident in the GRIP record, although this is less certain. Overall, however, the results suggest that stable carbon isotope measurements based on organ-specific terrestrial plant macrofossils may provide (i) a means for establishing correlations between terrestrial successions and (ii) additional paleoenvironmental information, as the apparent ‘shadowing’ of the GRIP record indicates a common forcing mechanism for both Greenland δ¹⁸O and northwest European δ¹³C variations. From the evidence available we suggest that the recorded δ¹³C variations reflect fluctuations in air temperature and/or changes in water vapour pressure in the atmosphere. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献