连云港区台风增水预报方法探讨     

李培顺 《海洋预报》1993,10(1):69-76

本文采用增水峰、谷时与高、低潮时的对应关系预报未来24小时之内的增水峰、谷时。采用增水峰增、减趋势外延和回归计算相结合的方法预报其峰值。然后,利用模拟的增水曲线,对港区内的台风增水及潮位进行预报,效果很好。  相似文献   

南沙海区沉积物剩余磁化强度与古气候旋回   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

汤贤赞  王保贵  袁友仁  侯红明 《热带海洋学报》1993,(3)

根据南沙海区NS87-11柱样沉积物Mr(剩余磁化强度)的变化曲线与δ~(18)O(氧同位素)变化曲线平行对比,发现Mr的波峰、波谷与δ~(18)O揭示的古气候变化的波峰、波谷相对应。表明南沙海区沉积物的Mr记录了暖→冷→暖古气候旋回变化的特征,反映了全球性气候变化的波动周期。微体古生物分析结果可以证实这一特征。这预示海洋沉积物的Mr不仅可作为探索古气候变化的重要标志,而且可能成为第四纪磁性地层对比、划分的依据。  相似文献   

舟山市一次冬季暴雨、大风天气过程分析     

张伟红 《海洋预报》2006,23(Z1):98-103

应用卫星云图、常规观测资料及T213数值分析产品,分析了2004年12月3~5日发生在浙江东部地区的暴雨和舟山市沿海的大风过程。分析结果表明:这次天气过程是由台风倒槽和冷空气及深厚的高空槽共同作用引起的;台风环流引起的东南低空急流为暴雨区输送了大量的水汽和不稳定能量;冷空气的侵入加上深厚的高空槽引起的低空辐合、中高层辐散,促使了东海低压的剧烈发展,产生了猛烈的大风。  相似文献   

Magnetic characterization of a retroarc extensional basin: The Loncopué Trough     

《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2019

The Loncopué Trough is a Pliocene to Quaternary extensional basin developed over the hinterland area of the Southern Central Andes. This basin is bounded by two neotectonic extensional fault systems delimiting a narrow topographic low. Previous studies have mostly focused on structural and geochemical aspects of this feature. However, geophysical surveys, aimed to unravel deep structure beneath a thick-younger than 5 My volcanic coverage, are scarce and based their interpretations on low resolution data sets. In this study, we collected new aeromagnetic data with the objective of characterizing the magnetic properties of the crust in the Loncopué Through and nearby zones. Additionally, we analyze the spatial relation between geological structures, volcanic fields and magnetic data. In order to highlight the boundaries of the magnetic sources and calculate the basement depth, we applied derivative techniques and the source parameter imaging. Also, we estimated an effective susceptibility model using the Magnetization Vector Inversion method, which takes into account the combined effects of remanence and induced magnetization. To determine the thermal structure of the area, we calculated the Curie depth points through the spectral analysis technique. From the analysis of magnetic data we were able to characterize the main structures and lineaments associated with this retroarc extensional trough. Notably, only the Loncopué eastern fault system seems to be a crustal-scale tectonic feature, while E-W-, ENE- and ESE-trending lineaments are interpreted as relatively minor structures segmenting the basement. Finally, our susceptibility model, together with the analysis of the Curie point, revealed potential magmatic/hydrothermal reservoirs in the Copahue volcano, and the Codihue and Cajón de Almanza regions that could be connected at depth forming a regional magmatic body.  相似文献   

Effect of offshore troughs on the South India erratic summer monsoon rainfall in June 2017     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

The onset and advance of southwest monsoon are accompanied by the appearance of the offshore trough along the southwest coast of India. This offshore trough escorts a deluge of rainfall to the southwest coast, and sometimes rainfall band moves eastward further into south India. These broad observations were noticed during the summer monsoon of June 2017. Meteorological agencies and media had reported a huge amount of rainfall over the southwest coast of India during the month. But, in the far interior of south India, rainfall was less. Due to the less rainfall, water resources depleted, which affected local farmers and common man of south India. The confused views of the common man on southwest coast rainfall could be due to lack of understanding related to various factors affecting rainfall over the same region. This article is an endeavor to address the preliminary understanding of the southwest coast rainfall during June 2017, with more stress on offshore troughs. The study begins with area-averaged rainfall statistics over south, southwest, and southeast India by employing satellite and rain gauge merged rainfall datasets. Area averaged analysis revealed offshore trough contributed 80 % of rainfall over the South West India, 68 % over South East India, contributing to an overall 75 % over south India in 2017. To identify offshore trough position and strength in the reanalysis and model simulations, a new method called VSV (Vertical Shear of Vorticity) method was introduced. The computed offshore troughs were categorized into Active, Normal, and Feeble based on the strength of meridional gradient of mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa horizontal winds. The contribution due to each category of the offshore trough over different sub-regions was investigated to find out the effect of the offshore trough to total rainfall. Dynamic and thermodynamic features of these categories of the offshore trough were investigated by using proxies like equivalent potential temperature and moisture flux convergence. We found that during active offshore trough an eastward propagation of rain bands persists, which was explained by using moisture flux convergence and equivalent potential temperature at different levels of the atmosphere.  相似文献   

华北区域性低能见度天气的自动识别及预报   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

倪江波  李文才  尚可政  王式功  李德帅 《干旱气象》2015,(1):174-179

利用2002~2011年的能见度观测资料以及NCEP格点资料,采用天气学方法研究了华北地区的低能见度天气过程。结果表明:造成研究区域低能见度的500 h Pa天气形势可分为3种类型:2槽1脊型、低槽型、纬向气流型;用特征物理量作为这3种天气型的入型判据,建立了华北区域性低能见度天气的自动识别系统;并在此基础上,利用K指数、露点温度差以及500 h Pa和850 h Pa的假相当位温差等天气诊断物理量,进行第二次判别,进一步消空,最后制作低能见度天气预报。利用以上建立的预报方案,对2002~2011年进行冬半年逐日回代检验,预报准确率达到了78%左右;对2012年的试预报结果为:出现3 d区域性低能见度天气过程完全报对,试验结果表明预报方法达到了较好的效果。  相似文献   

2011年江苏省一次暴雨过程的影响系统分析及物理量诊断     

吴琼  王文  赵栋  郭煜  周勍 《南京气象学院学报》2015,7(3):272-280

利用NECP/NCAR提供的逐日再分析资料,对江苏省2011年6月24—25日暴雨从环流形势、云图实况对照水汽通量和水汽通道变化3个方面进行了分析,结果表明前期影响该次暴雨过程的天气系统是西风槽,后期是台风,中期是两者相互作用.通过诊断过程水汽通量散度、垂直速度、散度和垂直螺旋度,发现它们作为25日强降水的预报因子,具有预报先兆性,大约有9~12 h的提前预报量.同时,发现近海台风(米雷)中低层垂直螺旋度由负变正并增加时,未来12 h内易出现强降水,而当中低层垂直螺旋度开始明显减小时,未来12 h内降水会逐渐减小,若减小是由正变负,则降水减弱时间更快,提前量在2 h左右.对于24和25日降水性质的不同,运用K指数加以验证,表明24日主要为多对流性降水,25日对流性减弱,以系统性降水为主.  相似文献   

东海冲绳海槽天然气水合物成矿地质条件与资源潜力     

陈建文 《地球学报》2014,35(6):726-732

冲绳海槽位于东海的东部,区内天然气水合物调查研究程度低。本文分析了冲绳海槽的区域地质背景和天然气水合物调查研究现状,根据已有资料和前人研究成果,分析了研究区天然气水合物形成的地形地貌、水深、温度、热流值特征,地层、沉积、构造、气源等条件,以及区内存在天然气水合物的地球物理、地球化学和其他证据,在此基础上推测区内天然气水合物成藏存在4种可能的地质类型。即成岩型、断裂构造型、底劈构造型和滑塌型。研究认为,冲绳海槽天然气水合物资源潜力巨大。  相似文献   

气候平均场中的西太平洋副热带高压双脊线特征及其与季风槽准10天振荡的关系   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

祁莉  管兆勇  张祖强 《大气科学》2008,32(1):165-174

副热带高压双脊线过程几乎历年均存在,其“季节锁相”与地域性使得在气候平均场上西太平洋副热带地区也存在明显的双脊线过程。作者利用43年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料对5～10月气候平均场中的西太平洋副热带高压双脊线过程进行了分析。气候平均场上5～10月西太平洋副热带高压共出现6次双脊线过程,集中发生在7月下旬至9月下旬,表明每年这个时段最易发生双脊线事件。每次双脊线过程均表现为副高南侧新生一脊线,发展几天后就减弱消失,北侧脊线（原脊线）继续维持。初步的诊断分析表明,6次双脊线过程中南侧脊线的生成与季风槽8～10天周期的“间歇性增强东伸”密切相关,这一准10天振荡在7月下旬至9月下旬的突然增强造就了双脊线的“季节锁相”。进一步分析发现,季风槽8～10天的“间歇性增强东伸”与两支分别来自西太平洋的西传准10天振荡和来自赤道的北传准10天振荡有关,这两支振荡同位相,其有利于位相同时传入南海季风区（10°N～15°N,110°E～120°E）,共同作用,引起季风槽的“间歇性增强东伸”。  相似文献   

气候平均场上西太平洋副热带高压双脊线过程可能成因的动力诊断分析     

祁莉  张祖强  何金海 《大气科学》2008,32(2):395-404

利用NCEP-DOE再分析数据集II,诊断分析了气候平均场上6次西太平洋副热带高压双脊线过程,借助一个两层半大气模式,从动力学上初步揭示了西太平洋热带大气准10天振荡（Quasi Ten-day Oscillation,简称QTO）向西北方向传播与季风槽东伸西撤之间的相互作用过程,探讨了气候平均场上西太副高双脊线可能的形成机制。分析表明季风槽准10天东西振荡是气候平均场上西太副高双脊线形成的主要原因,而季风槽东伸西撤与QTO传播密切相关。进一步分析发现,QTO向西北方向传播,东风切变作用于斜压辐散的经向梯度,在对流中心北侧生成正扰动涡度。QTO在季风槽东侧激发的气旋性扰动涡度,诱导季风槽东伸,侵入副高,造成副高外围变形,形成双脊线。因此,形成西太副高双脊线的主要原因之一可能是西太平洋热带大气QTO。尽管季风槽东伸直接引起副高双脊线发生,但是它只不过是受QTO影响的一种表现。本文仅为诊断结果,其结果还有待于模式敏感性试验的验证。  相似文献