欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的模拟评估及未来情景预估     

夏坤  王斌 《气候与环境研究》2015,20(1):41-52

基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)历史模拟试验(historical run)的模式输出结果以及遥感数据,采用相关分析、均方根误差、标准差等统计方法,评估了13个气候(或地球)系统模式对欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的模拟能力,在此基础上,采用多模式集合平均的方法对未来不同温室气体排放情景下(rcp2.6、rcp4.5和rcp8.5)欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的变化进行预估。结果显示:尽管各模式模拟的积雪覆盖率在高原地区与观测差异较大,但总体看来模式能够对欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的空间形态、季节变化及年际变化特征做出较好地模拟。未来预估结果表明,多模式集合平均预估的欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率从2006年到2040年左右减少趋势非常明显,且不同排放情景下模式模拟的积雪减少速率非常接近;然而,大约从2040年之后,不同排放情景下的积雪覆盖率减小趋势的差异越来越大,rcp2.6和rcp4.5下积雪覆盖率的变化趋于平缓,而rcp8.5情景下,积雪覆盖率一直减少,冬季、春季和秋季都明显减少,减少最显著的区域位于西欧和青藏高原地区。由此可见,控制温室气体的排放对于未来欧亚大陆积雪的变化是至关重要的。  相似文献   

Upwelling signals in radiocarbon from early 20th-century Peruvian bay scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) shells     

Kevin B. Jones  Gregory W.L. Hodgins  Miguel F. Etayo-Cadavid  C. Fred T. Andrus 《Quaternary Research》2009,72(3):452-456

We quantified Δ¹⁴C, δ¹⁸O, and δ¹³C cycles along ontogeny within four bay scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) shells collected from Callao Bay, Salaverry, and Sechura Bay, Peru following the 1907–1908 non-El Niño years and the 1925–1926 El Niño. Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C generally covary; Δ¹⁴C and δ¹⁸O vary inversely. Simultaneous decreases in Δ¹⁴C and increases in δ¹⁸O in non-El Niño shells are followed by constant Δ¹⁴C and gradually decreasing δ¹⁸O, which we interpret as evidence for discrete marine upwelling events followed by warming of the initially cold upwelled water. Upwelling changes from El Niño events are detectable with difficulty in mollusk shell Δ¹⁴C.  相似文献   

东海沿岸海区垂直环流及其温盐结构动力过程研究I．环流的基本特征     

刘兴泉  侯一筠  尹宝树 《海洋与湖沼》2004,35(5):393-403

利用三维斜压流体动力学模型 ,通过对东海沿岸海区冬、夏季的斜压环流及其温盐结构的数值研究 ,揭示研究海区垂直环流及其温盐结构的动力过程及其成因。垂直环流的模拟结果表明 :冬季 ,沿岸海区的垂直环流以逆时针流动 ,近表层为向岸流 ,沿岸为下降流 ,近表层以下为离岸流 ,其在外海有明显的上升趋势 ,沿岸下降流自表层至底层逐渐由强变弱 ;夏季 ,沿岸海区的垂直环流以顺时针流动 ,近表层以下为向岸流 ,沿岸为上升流 ,近表层为离岸流 ,其在外海有明显的下降趋势 ,沿岸上升流自底层至表层逐渐由弱变强。就整个沿岸海区而论 ,冬季沿岸下降流和夏季沿岸上升流的强度都随着岸界地形坡度、风速及风向与岸线偏角的变化而变化。沿岸下降流形成的主要原因是由于冬季东北风与岸界地形的耦合效应及海区温盐分布不均匀所致 ,而沿岸上升流形成的主要原因则是由于夏季西南风与岸界地形的耦合效应及海区温盐分布不均匀所致。  相似文献   

珠江三角洲平原区土壤Pb元素地球化学特征及其影响因素研究     

郭思雨  侯青叶  宗庆霞  唐志敏  韦彬  庞世琦 《现代地质》2019,33(3):514-524

以珠江三角洲平原为研究区域,对其7个区县102件水稻根系土样品进行土壤理化参数及Pb形态分析,探讨在第四系分布区土壤Pb全量及Pb活动态含量的特征及影响因素。结果表明:全部供试土壤样品中Pb元素平均含量为46.47mg/kg,略高于广东省土壤Pb含量背景值(36mg/kg),表现出一定的累积趋势。研究区自西北陆相沉积区至南部海陆交互相沉积区,元素含量增高。Pb元素主要以残渣态和铁锰氧化物形态赋存在土壤中,迁移能力弱。影响土壤Pb全量的因素主要有Al2O3、K2O、Tl、Mo;影响土壤Pb活动态的因素有Pb全量、pH、有机质、CEC、P、TFe2O3、Mn;其中,p H是控制Pb元素活动性的最主要因素。  相似文献   

气相色谱法测试土壤中分段石油烃的标准化定量方法初探   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

刘玉龙  黄燕高  刘菲 《岩矿测试》2019,38(1):102-111

目前土壤样品中分段石油烃的分析方法中石油烃包括的碳原子数范围和采用的校准物质不统一,造成不同实验室的量值不具有可比性。为保证不同实验室之间结果的可比性,本文尝试建立一种石油烃相邻碳原子数标准化定量方法。该方法主要包括:(1)规定了石油烃包括的碳原子数范围为气相色谱峰中正己烷和正四十碳烷之间所有的烃(含正己烷);(2)总石油烃(TPH)分为挥发性石油烃(VPH)和半挥发性石油烃(SPH),分别选取碳原子数为6～10的5个正构烷烃作为VPH校准物质,选取碳原子数为10～40的31个正构烷烃作为SPH校准物质。采用平均响应因子法或一次线性回归法,建立校准物质的峰面积-浓度的校准关系;(3)采用相邻峰标准化校准方法,逐一定量所有的目标色谱峰;(4)计算正构烷烃含量、总石油烃含量和任意分段的石油烃含量。该方法为环境样品中石油烃分析方法的标准化建设提供了数据基础。  相似文献   

Assessing basin storage: Comparison of hydrometric- and tracer-based indices of dynamic and total storage     

Ciara D. Cooke  James M. Buttle 《水文研究》2020,34(9):2012-2031

Storage is a fundamental but elusive component of drainage basin function, influencing synchronization between precipitation input and streamflow output and mediating basin sensitivity to climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change. We compare hydrometric and isotopic approaches to estimate indices of dynamic and total basin storage, respectively, and assess inter-basin differences in these indices across the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) region of southern Ontario, Canada. Dynamic storage indices for the 20 study basins included the ratio of baseflow to total streamflow (baseflow index BFI), Q ₉₉ flow and flow duration curve (FDC) slope. Ratios of the standard deviation of the streamflow stable isotope signal relative to that of precipitation were determined for each basin from a 1 year bi-weekly sampling program and used as indicators of total storage. Smaller ratios imply longer water travel times, smaller young water fractions (F _yw, < ~2–3 months in age) in streamflow and greater basin storage. Ratios were inversely related to BFI and Q ₉₉, and positively related to FDC slope, suggesting longer travel times and smaller F _yw for basins with stable baseflow-dominated streamflow regimes. Inter-basin differences in all indices reflected topographic, hydrogeologic and LULC controls on storage, which was greatest in steep, forest-covered headwaters underlain by permeable deposits with thick and relatively uniform unsaturated zones. Nevertheless, differential sensitivity of indices to controls on storage indicates the value of using several indices to capture more completely how basin characteristics influence storage. Regression relationships between storage indices and basin characteristics provided reasonable predictions of aspects of the streamflow regime of test basins in the ORM region. Such relationships and the underlying knowledge of controls on basin storage in this landscape provide the foundation for initial predictions of relative differences in streamflow response to regional changes in climate and LULC.  相似文献   

Snowpack disrupts relationship between young water fraction and isotope amplitude ratio; approximately one fifth of mountain streamflow less than one year old     

Éowyn M. S. Campbell  Igor Pavlovskii  M. Cathryn Ryan 《水文研究》2020,34(25):4762-4775

Previous “fraction of young water” (F_yw) estimates based on relative annual isotopic amplitudes in precipitation (A_p) and streamflow (A_s) produced low F_yw values in mountain catchments, which is contrary to extensive research that reports rapid water transmission in mountains. This study investigated this discrepancy by testing the effect of snow accumulation on the model that underpins the F_yw method. A Monte-Carlo analysis of simulations for 20,000 randomly-generated catchment model configurations used 10 years of precipitation inputs for the Upper Elbow River catchment in the Rocky Mountains (Alberta, Canada) to model discharge with and without snowpack storage of winter precipitation. Neither direct nor modified precipitation input produced a 1:1 relationship between A_s/A_p and F_yw, undermining the applicability of the original F_yw method in mountain watersheds with large seasonal snow accumulation. With snowpack-modified input a given A_s/A_p ratio corresponds to a range of F_yw values, which can still provide semi-quantitative information. In the small (435 km²) Elbow River catchment a F_yw range of 7–23% supports previous findings of rapid transmission in mountain catchments. Further analysis showed that the improved discharge prediction (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.9) correlates with higher F_yw values and demonstrated that the interannual shifts in δ¹⁸O can be used to estimate of new water (<1 year) fraction in winter streamflow, and the estimate of 20% for the Elbow River further supports rapid transmission in mountain catchments.  相似文献   

南半球中高纬度区域不同类型云的辐射特性   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吕巧谊  张玉轩  李积明 《气象学报》2017,75(4):596-606

利用CloudSat的2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR云分类产品和2B-FLXHR-LIDAR辐射产品4 a（2007-2010年）的数据,定量分析了单层云（高云、中云、低云）和3种双层云（如:高云与中云共存、高云与低云共存以及中云与低云共存）在南半球中高纬度（40°-65°S）的云量、云辐射强迫和云辐射加热率。其中云辐射加热率定义为有云时的大气加热率廓线与晴空大气加热率廓线的差值。结果表明:研究区域盛行单层低云和单层中云,其云量分别为44.1%和10.3%。并且,中云重叠低云在双层云中云量也是最大（8.7%）。不同类型云的云量也显著影响着其云辐射强迫。单层低云在大气层顶、地表以及大气中的净云辐射强迫分别是-64.8、-56.5和-8.4 W/m2,其绝对值大于其他类型云。虽然单层的中云在大气层顶和地表的净辐射强迫也为负值,但其在大气中的净云辐射强迫为正值（2.3 W/m2）。最后,讨论了不同类型云对大气中辐射能量垂直分布的影响。所有类型云的短波（或长波）云辐射加热率都随高度升高表现为由负值转为正值（或由正值转为负值）。对于大部分云,其净云辐射加热率主要由长波云辐射加热率决定。这些研究结果旨在为模式中云重叠参数化方案在区域的适用性评估及改进提供观测依据。   相似文献   

华东地区气溶胶分布和变化特征研究     

刘璇  朱彬  关学锋  袁亮 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2017,11(1):11-21

利用中分辨率光谱仪(MODIS)获得的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)、细粒子比例(FMF)和臭氧检测仪(OMI)获得的气溶胶指数(AI)统计分析了2005—2014年我国华东地区气溶胶光学性质的时空分布特征,同时利用潜在源分析(PSCF)模型对我国华东地区AOD和AI的潜在源区进行分析。研究结果表明:华东地区的AOD、FMF和AI时空分布存在较大的差异,2005—2014年AOD和AI的平均值高值主要分布在华东地区北部,FMF的高值区则分布在华东南部地区;10 a间华东地区AOD呈现出先升高后降低的趋势,FMF波动幅度不明显,AI值有所上升;整个华东地区AOD的季节变化较为明显,春夏两季AOD明显高于秋冬两季。华东北部和中部地区夏季由于较高的相对湿度,AOD最大可达0.8以上。而在华东南部地区,夏季受到降水的影响,AOD维持在0.2~0.4之间。FMF季节变化趋势与AOD不同,夏季最大达到0.58,春季最小仅为0.26。AI平均值在冬季最大高达0.63,夏季最小,为0.27。PSCF分析显示华东地区AOD主要源区以局地排放为主,同时也存在由河南、湖北和湖南等周边省市近距离输送影响;AI以局地和北方远距离输送为主,同时也受到河南、湖北等周边省市近距离输送的影响。  相似文献   

东海沿岸上升流的数值计算   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

罗义勇 《海洋湖沼通报》1998,(3):1-6

运用Ｂａｃｋｈａｕｓ的三维非线性模型,同时考虑潮,风和台湾暖流的作用,本文计算了夏季我国东海沿岸上升流。结果表明,东海沿岸从杭州湾口外一直到闽北的海底坡折区上存在明显的上升流,它呈带状分布,宽约４０ｋｍ,舟山近海的强上升流出现在３０ｍ层,向南则可达到较深的水层,流速一般为６．５×１０＾－３ｃｍ／ｓ。  相似文献