Uncertainty in adaptive capacity     

W. Neil Adger  Katharine Vincent 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(4):399-410

The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究：进展与展望     

杨建平  丁永建  方一平 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(2):178-186

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向,是当今自然科学与社会科学交叉融合跨学科集成研究的典型代表。起步于2007年的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究,经历了早期的探索,研究重点由评价脆弱性发展为量化冰冻圈变化的影响,形成以影响/风险—脆弱性—适应全链条的完善的研究体系,研究方法突破传统的指标体系赋权法的不足,初步实现了定量化,有机结合影响/风险、脆弱性、适应三方面的研究结果,使冰冻圈变化的适应措施由偏重宏观性、普适性开始转向更有针对性。未来中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究应拓展、完善和深化现有的理论体系,构建冰冻圈与社会经济耦合模型,科学量化冰冻圈全要素变化的影响,建立不同利益相关者与科学家共同参与的研究新模式,科学有效应对与适应冰冻圈变化及其影响。  相似文献   

GNSS安全——网络空间安全的新战场          下载免费PDF全文

刘畅  丁凡  田淼清 《全球定位系统》2019,44(1):48-53

网络安全是当代网络社会面临的重要问题.全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)是网络空间的重要组成部分,GNSS提供的时空信息不仅是万物互联实现所需的时空参考基准,其本身也是网络传输的重要数据内容之一.易损性是引起GNSS安全性风险的重要因素,GNSS受干扰影响可失去定位授时能力或产生虚假信息,造成GNSS安全性风险并进而影响整个网络空间的安全.应从思想认识,系统建设,技术发展,法律法规等方面入手应对GNSS造成的网络安全性风险.  相似文献   

People and community as constituent parts of hazards: the significance of societal dimensions in hazards analysis     

C. Emdad Haque  David Etkin 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(2):271-282

Nature-triggered hazards and disasters have traditionally been treated only from the lens of geophysical and biophysical processes, implying that the root cause of large-scale death and destruction lies in the natural domain rather than in a coupled human–environment system. Conceptually, the physical domain has been seen as discrete and separate from human entities, and solutions were sought in the technological intervention and control of the physical environment—solutions that often ended up being less effective than hoped for and sometimes even counter productive. At all levels, institutions have directed and redirected most of their financial and logistical resources into the search for scientific and engineering solutions without allocating due attention and resources towards the assessment of effects and effectiveness of the applications of such technological outcomes. However, over the last two decades, forceful criticisms of the ‘dominant’ technocratic approach to hazards analysis have appeared in the literature and consequently there has not only been a shift in thinking of causation of disaster loss in terms of human vulnerability, but also newer questions have arisen regarding distinguishing between the ‘physical exposure’ of people to threats and societal vulnerability, and linking them with propensity to hazards loss. Though the vulnerability/resilience paradigm has largely replaced the hazards paradigm within the social sciences and much of the professional emergency and disaster management communities, this shift of thinking has not progressed to much of the physical science community, decision-makers and the public, who have not yet accepted the idea that understanding and using human and societal dimensions is equally or more important than trying to deal and control nature through the use of technology. This special issue is intended to further the idea that the aspects of community and peoples’ power to mitigate, to improve coping mechanisms, to respond effectively, and recover with vigor against the environmental extremes are of paramount conceptual and policy importance.  相似文献   

Vulnerability of groundwater in Quaternary aquifers to organic contaminants: a case study in Wuhan City,China   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Yanxin Wang  Broder J. Merkel  Yilian Li  Hui Ye  Surong Fu  Dana Ihm 《Environmental Geology》2007,53(3):479-484

More than 30 organic contaminants were detected in shallow groundwaters at Wuhan, the largest city in central China. Seriously contaminated groundwaters were from densely populated, industrial and commercial areas. Abnormal concentrations were found in groundwater from Hankou, downtown Wuhan: trimethylbenzene up to 29 μg/L, tetramethylbenzene up to 866 μg/L, and trichloroethene up to 9.5 μg/L. Benzene, Toluene, Ethylene and Xylene (BTEX) contamination of groundwater is serious and widespread at Wuhan, ranging between 0.14 and 25.0 μg/L. Considering the hydrogeological conditions of most Chinese cities, DRAMIC, a modified version of the widely used DRASTIC model, was proposed by the authors for assessing vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The factors D, R, A and I in DRAMIC model are the same as in DRASTIC. The factor topography is ignored. The factor soil media is substituted by a new factor aquifer thickness (M) and the factor hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer by a new factor impact of contaminant (C). The equation for determining the DRAMIC Index is: DRAMIC = 5D _R + 3R _R + 4A _R + 2M _R + 5I _R + 1C _R. The calculated DRAMIC Index can be used to identify areas that are more likely to be susceptible to groundwater contamination relative to each other. The higher the DRAMIC Index is, the greater the groundwater pollution potential. Applying DRAMIC, a GIS-based vulnerability map for Wuhan city was prepared. Interestingly, places such as downtown Hankou, where enhanced concentrations of BTEX have been detected, correspond quite well with those with higher DRAMIC ratings.  相似文献   

A simplified approach for vulnerability assessment in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions: application to Grenoble (France)   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

Philippe Guéguen  Clotaire Michel  Laele LeCorre 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2007,5(3):467-490

Due to the moderate seismic risks in France, the building vulnerability assessment methods developed for high seismic risk countries could not easily be used here because of their cost and the low-risk perception among the public and officials. A light vulnerability assessment method is proposed and tested in Grenoble (France), based on classes and scores provided in the GNDT method but simplified in terms of visual screening and number of structural parameters used. Compared to the RiskUE method, the damage obtained by our approach shows that 90% of buildings have residuals smaller than 0.2, i.e. one grade of the EMS98 damage scale. A large scale survey is devised and conducted among the inhabitants of Grenoble in order to collect the main structural parameters. By comparing the results from the survey to the historical urbanization of Grenoble and to expert surveys performed in two urban districts, the information useful for the light method of vulnerability assessment can be rapidly collected by non-experts reducing substantially the estimate cost. The average damage is then computed using the GNDT formula considering the probable intensities which could be observed in Grenoble (VII and VIII). The average damage reaches 0.4 in the oldest part of Grenoble mainly made of masonry buildings and 0.2 in reinforced concrete suburbs where reinforced concrete predominates. The results are a relative vulnerability assessment that provides useful initial information for the urban zones of Grenoble where the vulnerability is higher. This method can be used to classify the seismic vulnerability in wide seismic-prone regions to a fair degree of accuracy and at low cost.  相似文献   

Potential pollution of groundwater in the valley of the Seybouse River,north-eastern Algeria     

L.?DjabriEmail author  A.?Hani  R.?Laouar  J.?Mania  J.?Mudry  A.?Louhi 《Environmental Geology》2003,44(6):738-744

In north-eastern Algeria, the Seybouse River is an important source of water used mainly for irrigation of large agricultural areas extending from the Guelma region to Annaba city. Industrial activities in this region contribute substantial water pollution to the river and the groundwater. Based on the different sources of pollution, mapping of areas vulnerable to groundwater pollution has been accomplished by combining land use and data on groundwater levels. The resulting maps show that the most vulnerable areas are those with large industrial activities—in Meboudja, Bouchegouf and Guelma. Infiltration and runoff contribute to pollution, and the highest infiltration rate is generally observed in areas of agricultural and industrial activities. Pollution of the aquifers in this area is of concern. Mountains, such as the Edough and Gelaat Bou Sbaa, contribute high runoff that carries pollutants towards the groundwater.  相似文献   

Main concepts of the "European approach" to karst-groundwater-vulnerability assessment and mapping   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

D. Daly  A. Dassargues  D. Drew  S. Dunne  N. Goldscheider  S. Neale  I. Popescu  F. Zwahlen 《Hydrogeology Journal》2002,10(2):340-345

In order to achieve some consistency in the establishment of groundwater intrinsic vulnerability maps in Europe, a new approach is proposed by Working Group 1 of the European COST Action 620 on "Vulnerability mapping for the protection of carbonate (karst) aquifers". A general procedure is offered which provides consistency while allowing the required flexibility for application to a continent and under conditions of varying geology, scale, information availability, time, and resources. The proposed methodology is designed to be clearly more physically based than the existing vulnerability-mapping techniques. It takes the specificity of the karstic environments into account without necessarily excluding the applicability to other geological conditions. Combined "core factors" for overlying layers and for concentration of flow account for the relative protection of groundwater from contamination while taking into account any bypass of the overlying layers. A precipitation factor is distinguished for describing characteristics of the input of water to the system. Differentiation is made between groundwater resource intrinsic vulnerability mapping and source intrinsic vulnerability mapping. For the latter, a factor describing the karst network development is relevant. This short technical note describes a first step in the work program of Working Group 1 of the COST Action 620. Future steps are now in progress to quantify the approach and to apply it in various European pilot areas. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

巨大灾害后的脆弱性：台湾集集地震后中部地区土地利用与覆盖变迁   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

林冠慧  张长义 《地球科学进展》2006,21(2):201-210

自2004年底的南亚大海啸、美国遭受飓风侵袭以来，人类社会如何采取应对措施以降低灾害的冲击成为国际科学界的一个重要议题。台湾在几年前也遭遇巨大的地震灾害，1999年9月21日凌晨，震中发源于台湾中部、芮氏规模7.3级的巨大地震，造成全台湾2 000多人死亡，8 000多人受伤，除了造成直接的经济社会损失外，也造成山区土石松滑、地层松动与山崩，直接改变了地表的覆盖状况。在后续几年台风所带来的强风豪雨下，丰沛的降雨量使原本因地震而松滑的土石大量滑落，造成严重的土石流灾害，河床也因土石泥沙的堆积而被提升，形成严重的洪患。这些自然环境的变化不仅再次改变地表的覆盖，也使重建后的小区面临极大的灾害风险。此次冲击促使当地居民重新思考人地关系之意义，通过重建过程凝聚小区意识，发展有别于过去的土地利用形态。因此为检验当地居民对灾害的暴露程度、敏感性与适应能力，本研究采用近年来在国际环境灾害研究课题备受重视的脆弱性研究途径，并利用野外调查以及遥测与地理信息系统分析呈现地震后的土地覆盖变化。希望通过分析人与环境系统的变化，以及人类社群的社会内部固有特质，归纳出重要机制以发展降低脆弱性的策略。 研究结果显示，灾害是人与环境耦合系统(coupled system)共同形成的结果，非单一的独立事件，也不是不可避免的；且地方的脆弱性具有演化与多元化的特性，同一地方下不同族群与个体对灾害的脆弱性皆不同，因此灾害研究必须更关注于灾害发生的机制，相关的政策与策略也必须建立在更小的社会与空间单元上。  相似文献   

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7  

Suzanne Belliveau  Barry Smit  Ben Bradshaw 《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(4):364-378

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.  相似文献