A new method for indentifying the model error of adjustment system     

Tao Benzao  Zhang Chaoyu 《地球空间信息科学学报》2005,8(3):189-192

Some theory problems affecting parameter estimation are discussed in this paper. Influence and transformation between errors of stochastic and functional models is pointed out as well. For choosing the best adjustment model, a formula, which is different from the literatures existing methods, for estimating and identifying the model error, is proposed. On the basis of the proposed formula, an effective approach of selecting the best model of adjustment system is given. Project supported by the Open Research Fund Program of the Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University (No. 905276031-04-10).  相似文献   

青藏高原东部牧区雪灾的环流型及水汽场分析   总被引：10，自引：8，他引：10  

梁潇云  钱正安  李万元 《高原气象》2002,21(4):359-367

冬、春季雪灾是青藏高原东部牧区重要的灾害性天气。本文利用历史天气图和国家气象中心T106L19全球模式的分析值格点资料，分析了青藏高原东部牧区近20年来冬，冬季降雨的天气形势和水汽场。结果表明，北脊南槽型、乌山脊型、阶梯槽型和国境槽型是造成高原东部牧区降雪的四类主要环流型；在高原东部牧区强降雪天气过程时气柱可降水量有明显增加，记要降雪区与水汽通量辐合区吻合，主要水汽来自孟加拉湾地区。  相似文献   

用940 nm通道遥感水汽总量的可行性试验   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

黄意玢  董超华 《应用气象学报》2002,13(2):184-192

在940 nm水汽弱吸收带和其附近窗区选取若干探测通道, 采取不同通道组合, 模拟计算通道反射率比值, 并建立了该比值与水汽含量之间的统计关系。用探空观测独立样本检验水汽含量模拟计算结果, 相对误差小于6%。  相似文献   

近十年来我国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展   总被引：51，自引：12，他引：51       下载免费PDF全文

王馥棠 《应用气象学报》2002,13(6):755-766

近年来，我国政府和科技界十分关注气候王馥棠变暖对我国经济发展可能影响的评估, 开展了许多重大项目和课题的研究。该文仅就气候变暖对我国自然植被、农业、森林、水资源、能源利用和区域海平面上升等领域影响评估研究的若干有意义的初步结果简要归纳和评述如下:取自不同GCM模型的未来气候变化情景下的影响评估模拟表明，我国的特征性自然植被类型将会发生明显的变化。同当前气候（1951~1980年）下的模拟分布相比，到2050年我国几乎所有地方的农业种植制度均将发生较大变化；气候变暖将导致复种指数增加和种植方式多样化，但降水与蒸散之间可能出现的负平衡和土壤水分胁迫的增加以及生育期的可能缩短，最终将导致我国主要作物的产量下降。气候变暖对我国水资源最明显的影响将会发生在黄淮海流域，这个区域的水资源供需短缺将大大提高。同时，气候变暖将改变我国室内取暖和降温的能源需求关系:北方冬季取暖的能源消耗将减少, 而南方夏季降温的能源消耗将会增加。海平面的上升将使我国三个主要沿海低洼脆弱区，即珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和黄河三角洲，面临部分遭受海水淹没的威胁。  相似文献   

Soluble organic compounds in fog and cloud droplets: what have we learned over the past few years?     

Sandro Fuzzi  Maria Cristina Facchini  Stefano Decesari  Emanuela Matta  Mihaiela Mircea 《Atmospheric Research》2002,64(1-4)

We have recently set up a new procedure for characterising the water soluble organic compounds (WSOC) in fog water, for which information is still rather limited. Fog samples collected during the 1998–1999 fall–winter season in the Po Valley (Italy) were analysed following this procedure, which allows a quantitative determination of three main classes of organic compounds (neutral species, mono- and di-carboxylic acids, polycarboxylic acids), together accounting for ca. 85% of the total WSOC. This procedure also provides information on the main chemical characteristics of these three classes of compounds (functional groups, aliphatic vs. aromatic character, etc.). The enhanced chemical knowledge on fog/cloud chemical composition opens new scenarios as far as chemical and microphysical processes in clouds and fogs are concerned.  相似文献   

库车坳陷下侏罗统沉积特征及砂体展布   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

张惠良  寿建峰  陈子料  王少依  杨晓宁  皮学军  蔡振忠 《古地理学报》2002,4(3):47-58

库车坳陷位于塔里木盆地北部，北缘是南天山山前断裂带，南缘是塔北隆起，呈NEE向展布，东西长250km，南北宽20－60km，面积约21170km^2。下侏罗统自下而上发育阿合组、阳霞组。对吐格尔明、克孜勒努尔、库车河剖面及依南2井岩芯观察发现，阿合组和阳霞组按其岩性特征均可以划分为5个岩性段，各个岩性段在全具有对比性。还可分出4类和17个亚类岩相。阿合组细砂岩以上的粗碎屑岩含量为80％以上；阳霞组细砂岩以上的碎屑岩含量为50％－60％。砂岩厚度占总地层厚度的50％－60％以上，是油气勘探的重要目的层系。以吐格尔明剖面为代表的依南2井以东地区的阿合组和阳霞组岩矿特征基本相似，以克孜勒努尔地区为代表的依南2井以西地区有较大差异，即阳霞组长石含量几乎为零。两区共同点是以岩屑砂岩为主，成分成熟度低，结构成熟度中等，岩屑含量较高。从岩性组合、沉积构造、微观岩石成分、结构和砂体形态等方面的综合分析认为，辫状三角洲沉积体系是该区阿合组和阳霞组的主要沉积体系。阿合组砂体纵向上以多个辫状三角洲平原上的辫状分流河道砂岩加积复合为主，横向上指状镶嵌叠置呈东西向展布。阳霞组第3岩性段砂体纵向上以多个辫状三角洲前缘上的水下辫状分流河道砂岩加积复合为主，横向上指状镶嵌叠置也呈东西向展布。第2、4、5岩性段砂体以河道滞流砂岩侧砂为主，横向叠瓦状叠置呈东西向展布。  相似文献   

Structural damage detection using the optimal weights of the approximating artificial neural networks     

Shih‐Lin Hung  C. Y. Kao 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(2):217-234

This work presents a novel neural network‐based approach to detect structural damage. The proposed approach comprises two steps. The first step, system identification, involves using neural system identification networks (NSINs) to identify the undamaged and damaged states of a structural system. The partial derivatives of the outputs with respect to the inputs of the NSIN, which identifies the system in a certain undamaged or damaged state, have a negligible variation with different system errors. This loosely defined unique property enables these partial derivatives to quantitatively indicate system damage from the model parameters. The second step, structural damage detection, involves using the neural damage detection network (NDDN) to detect the location and extent of the structural damage. The input to the NDDN is taken as the aforementioned partial derivatives of NSIN, and the output of the NDDN identifies the damage level for each member in the structure. Moreover, SDOF and MDOF examples are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of using the proposed method for damage detection of linear structures. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Parameter identification of inelastic structures under dynamic loads     

Haochuan Zhang  Greg C. Foliente  Yongmin Yang  Fai Ma 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(5):1113-1130

The generalized model of differential hysteresis contains 13 control parameters with which it can curve‐fit practically any hysteretic trace. Three identification algorithms are developed to estimate the control parameters of hysteresis for different classes of inelastic structures. These algorithms are based upon the simplex, extended Kalman filter, and generalized reduced gradient methods. Novel techniques such as global search and internal constraints are incorporated to facilitate convergence and stability. Effectiveness of the devised algorithms is demonstrated through simulations of two inelastic systems with both pinching and degradation characteristics in their hysteretic traces. Owing to very modest computing requirements, these identification algorithms may become acceptable as a design tool for mapping the hysteretic traces of inelastic structures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

塑性岩体与逆冲构造变形关系讨论——库车坳陷西部实例分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

张明山  姚宗惠  陈发景 《地学前缘》2002,9(4):371-376

在冲断构造分析过程中 ,常常把塑性岩体仅仅作为滑脱层看待 ,忽略了一些地区塑性变形与冲断构造变形的复合作用。根据露头、钻井、地震等资料 ,应用平衡剖面等技术对库车坳陷西部的构造变形进行了恢复分析 ,发现库车坳陷西部的下第三系盐、膏、泥等塑性体受重力和构造应力联合作用发生了复杂的变形。以往单纯用冲断构造模式分析其成因机制 ,没能科学地反映中生界与新生界之间的变形缩短量的差异 ,通过塑性体的底辟变形和滑脱变形依存关系的剖析 ,能够恢复库车坳陷西部构造演化过程 ,进而为油气勘探提供指导。  相似文献   

应用CP网络进行岩性识别   总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2  

陆万雨  黄盛仁  覃世银 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2002,32(1):100-102

为通过测井解决岩性识别问题，引入了具有分类准确、算法简练等优点的CP（Counter-Propagation)网络。在详细介绍CP网络的网络模型和算法的基础上，结合某油田的实际测井资料，进行了CP网络识别研究。应用结果表明：CP网络训练周期短、识别准确率高、不存在收敛问题。通过试验研究得出结论：CP网络完全可以用于解决岩性识别等问题，具有广阔的应用前景。  相似文献