中国能源安全研究进展   总被引：16，自引：3，他引：13  

蔡国田  张雷 《地理科学进展》2005,24(6):79-87

作为世界最大的发展中能源消费和生产大国,能源安全成了21世纪中国资源持续开发的核心问题,能源安全主要由能源供应的稳定性和能源使用的安全性两个部分组成。过去中国在影响能源安全的生产、运输、消费各环节及能源安全的法律保障等方面研究取得了一定进展,但是由于我国大规模工业化时间还很短,对能源安全这一复杂的系统研究不够,导致了对国家能源形势判断屡屡出现失误。中国能源安全正在经历从供应保障的稳定性为主向使用的安全性为主过程的转变,迫切需要重新思考中国能源安全问题,重点对国家能源安全的阶段性及特征、能源消费变化和环境破坏代价、能源保障空间组织、能源管理体制、能源价格、能源对外依存及代价、替代能源开发及风险等问题作全面系统研究。  相似文献   

气候变暖对甘肃农业的影响   总被引：25，自引：2，他引：23  

刘德祥  董安祥  薛万孝  张平兰  费晓玲 《地理科学进展》2005,24(2):49-58

应用甘肃省63个地面测站1961～2003年气温资料,对年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0℃、≥10℃活动积温和＜0℃负积温进行分析。结果表明, 1987～2003年比1961～1986年的平均值明显增高,尤以最低气温增幅最大,甘肃省气候变暖主要来自最低气温升高的贡献。冬季升温幅度大于夏季,＜0℃负积温绝对值明显减少。甘肃省20世纪80年代后期气候明显变暖,热量资源增加,喜温作物面积扩大,越冬作物种植区北界向北扩展,对牧区牲畜越冬度春有利。但由于水资源不足,气候变暖对甘肃农业的负面影响大于正面影响。  相似文献   

The Role of β-effect and a Uniform Current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity     

端义宏  伍荣生  余晖  梁旭东  陈仲良 《大气科学进展》2004,21(1)

A limited-area primitive equation model is used to study the role of the β-effect and a uniform current on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity.It is found that TC intensity is reduced in a non-quiescent environment compared with the case of no uniform current.On an f-plane,the rate of intensification of a tropical cyclone is larger than that of the uniform flow.A TC on a β-plane intensifies slower than one on an f-plane.The main physical characteristic that distinguishes the experiments is the asymmetric thermodynamic (including convective) and dynamic structures present when either a uniform flow or β-effect is introduced.But a fairly symmetric TC structure is simulated on an f-plane.The magnitude of the warm core and the associated subsidence are found to be responsible for such simulated intensity changes.On an f-plane,the convection tends to be symmetric,which results in strong upper-level convergence near the center and hence strong forced subsidence and a very warm core.On the other hand,horizontal advection of temperature cancels part of the adiabatic heating and results in less warming of the core,and hence the TC is not as intense.This advective process is due to the tilt of the vortex as a result of the β-effect.A similar situation occurs in the presence of a uniform flow.Thus,the asymmetric horizontal advection of temperature plays an important role in the temperature distribution.Dynamically,the asymmetric angular momentum (AM) flux is very small on an f-plane throughout the troposphere.However,the total AM exports at the upper levels for a TC either on aβ-plane or with a uniform flow environment are larger because of an increase of the asymmetric as well as symmetric AM export on the plane at radii ＞450 km,and hence there is a lesser intensification.  相似文献   

A study of formation and development of one kind of cyclone on the mei-yu (Baiu) front   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

ZHANG Feng  ZHAO Sixiong 《大气科学进展》2004,21(5):741-754

The paper presents one diagnosis of baroclinity and the coupling of jets during the developing process of a cyclone that occurred on the mei-yu (Baiu) front around the end of the second stage of the mei-yu (Baiu)in 1998. Results have shown that: (1) The advantageous changes of upper-level large-scale circulation caused the appearance and maintenance of the coupling between the upper-level jet (ULJ) and lower-level jet (LLJ) over the cyclone‘s area. The coupling of jets in this case possesses some different characteristics from previous cases. Moreover, the coupling between the ULJ and LLJ caused the intensification of both lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, which was favorable for the development of this cyclone. (2) From the analysis of the voricity budget, the role of lower-level convergence in the development of the cyclone was emphasized. Divergent wind in the lower troposphere was a direct contributor to the development of the cyclone. (3) During the development of the cyclone, cold air and warm air were_active over the cyclone‘s domain. Although this cyclone occurred at the mei-yu (Baiu) front, its development assumed baroclinity to a certain extent, which was just the main difference between this kind of cyclone and the first kind of low which is usually barotropic (or quasi-barotropic). (4) In recent years, studies on mei-yu front lows have paid more attention to the lower troposphere. In this paper, the analysis of the energy budget further supports this point: the certain effect of baroclinity forcing in the upper troposphere on mei-yu front lows cannot be ignored.  相似文献   

隔震换能结构体系的能量分析   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

程树良  孙作玉  王焕定 《地震工程与工程振动》2004,24(3):179-184

将换能器安装在隔震结构的隔震层处,由结构和换能装置构成隔震换能结构体系,它既可以将地震输入给结构的部分能量转换成液压能,实现地震能量的转换,又能减小隔震层的水平位移,降低对隔震层的技术要求,降低造价。本文详细研究地震输给隔震换能结构体系的能量在体系各部分的分配,并与普通隔震结构对比,从能量的角度揭示隔震换能体系的换能控制原理。  相似文献   

结构震害指数研究评述   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

郭子雄  刘阳  杨勇 《地震工程与工程振动》2004,24(5):56-61

结构震害指数是评价某个结构或构件在受到地震作用后的破坏状态的无量纲指数,是人们在地震后对受损建筑做出处理决策的重要理论依据。对国际上较常用的震害指数计算模型进行了简要介绍和评述,分析了这些模型的优缺点,在此基础上提出震害指数今后研究的发展方向和建议。  相似文献   

Planktonic stages of Maurolicus muelleri (Teleostei Sternoptychidae) in New Zealand waters     

D. A. Robertson 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(2):311-328

The seasonality and distribution, abundance, and hydrological affinities of the planktonic stages of the sternoptychid Maurolicus muelleri (Grnelin, 1788) are described for the New Zealand region. Spawning occurred from August to March, and the planktonic stages were widespread around New Zealand. Spawning probably takes place around midday at depths greater than 250 m. Eggs and larval stages were present over temperature ranges of 9.0–15.5°c and 13–22°c respectively.  相似文献   

Improving the estimate of wind energy input into the Ekman layer within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

ZHANG Yuming  WU Kejian  ZHANG Xiaoshuang  BI Fan  SONG Zhaoyang  LIU Shouhua 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(3):19-27

Based on the data and method offered by Liu et al. (2009), the direct wind and Stokes drift-induced energy inputs into the Ekman layer within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) area are reestimated since the results of the former have been proved to be underestimated. And the result shows that the total rate of energy input into the Ekman-Stokes layer within the ACC area is 852.41 GW, including 649.75 GW of direct wind energy input (76%) and 202.66 GW of Stoke drift-induced energy input (24%). Total increased energy input, due to wave-induced Coriolis-Stokes forcing added to the classical Ekman model, is 52.05 GW, accounting for 6.5% of the wind energy input into the classical Ekman layer. The long-term variability of direct wind and Stokes drift-induced energy inputs into the Ekman layer within the ACC is also investigated, and the result shows that the Stokes drift hinders the decadal increasing trend of direct wind energy input. Meanwhile, there is a period of 4-5 a in the energy spectrums, as same as the Antarctic circumpolar wave.  相似文献   

A Dynamical Statistical Model for Prediction of a Tropical Cyclone     

S. K. Roy Bhowmik  S. D. Kotal 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(4):412-423

A dynamical statistical method is applied for operational forecasting of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone “Nargis” of April–May 2008. The method consists of three forecast components, namely (a) analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and maximum potential intensity, (b) track prediction, and (c) 12 hourly intensity prediction for forecasts up to 72 hours. The results of the study showed that GPP could provide necessary predictive signal at early stages of development on the further intensification of the low pressure system into a tropical cyclone. The landfall forecast position errors by different operational numerical models (NWP) showed landfall position errors ranging from 10 km to 150 km and landfall time error ranges from 6 hours early to 6 hours delay. The dynamical statistical model is capable to provide 12 hourly nearly realistic intensity forecasts up to 60 hours of forecast.  相似文献   

组合压气机中尾迹与势流同频/异频干涉的叠加特性          下载免费PDF全文

赵奔  杨策  老大中  张卫正 《海洋科学进展》2013,(4):477-485

为揭示多级压气机中上下游叶轮对中间叶片叠加气动影响特性,阐述不同叠加干涉情况下下游叶轮进气角度变化,采用数值方法模拟了一级轴流和一级离心组成的组合压气机非定常流场。详细讨论了上游动叶尾迹和下游动叶势流对中间导流叶栅段气流非定常流动的异频和同频叠加干涉特性,依据计算结果,直观地展示了静叶通道中两种干涉间相互激励和抑制作用的位置和时间,与数学公式的推导结果相互印证。研究结果表明:当上下游动叶对中间静叶段异频干涉时,干涉的激励、抑制区域的轴向位置随时间发生变化;当上下游动叶对中间静叶干涉频率相同时,干涉的相互激励、抑制区域的轴向位置不随时间发生变化,但干涉的激励、抑制区域的轴向位置受时序位置影响。另外,上游动叶尾迹与下游离心叶轮势流的不同叠加情况,决定着下游离心叶轮进口相对气流角的大小及波动幅值。   相似文献