广东省空气质量预报系统   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

吴兑邓雪娇  林爱兰谷德军 梁建茵 《气象科技》2003,31(6):351-355

文章介绍了广东省气象系统开展空气质量预报的概况，包括使用的预报工具，其预报能力与业务运行的预报质量分析，以及进一步提高预报水平的一些设想。  相似文献   

一种新的城市SO₂污染统计预报方法及其应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

杨文峰  史宝忠 《应用气象学报》2003,14(2):223-229

针对目前采用的统计方法存在的不足, 即在选择预报因子时没有考虑预报因子之间的相关性, 挑选的预报因子由于非正交, 使回归计算的结果不稳定, 给计算带来一定的误差。该文提出把一元线性回归分析、自然正交函数 (EOF) 和逐步回归方法结合起来, 从而得到一种新的建立统计预报模型的方法。以西安市采暖期和夏季SO₂日均浓度为预报对象, 使用该方法建立预报模型。拟合及预报试验表明, 这些预报模型不但可以很好地拟合变化趋势, 而且还能作出较准确的预报, 采暖期预报的级别命中率为72.5 %, 夏季级别预报命中率为100%。通过对比试验, 此方法优于目前常用的逐步回归方法, 具有很好的应用前景。  相似文献   

海南岛中低纬冷暖系统相互作用下的非台暴雨分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张春花 《气象研究与应用》2003,24(4):19-21

通过对1993年～2002年共10年的天气资料分析发现,在海南,中纬度的冷空气与低纬度在南海上活动的低压之间的相互作用,是秋季产生非台暴雨的非常重要的环流形势;同时发现,低空急流的存在与暴雨的产生有密切联系。并且对2000年10月13日～15日的暴雨过程利用T106物理量场诊断分析,说明暴雨形成的原因。  相似文献   

冬春季格陵兰海冰变化与初夏中国气温/降水关系的初步分析   总被引：3，自引：5，他引：3  

陈明轩  管兆勇  徐海明 《高原气象》2003,22(1):7-13

采用英国Hadley中心GISST海冰面积资料，NCEP／NCAR再分析资料以及中国地面降水和气温资料，运用EOF分解，小波分析和合成分析等方法，初步探讨了格陵兰岛两侧附近冬春季海冰面积变化特征及其与初夏6月中国气温和降水的关系，结果表明，格陵兰岛东西两侧海冰面积呈显著反相变化，并且具有明显的年际和年代际周期性振荡，冬春季格陵兰－寻威海海冰与初夏6月中国长江以北气温（降水）正相关（反相关），与长江以南气温（降水）反相关（正相关），而对于戴维斯海峡－拉布拉多海海冰则具有相反的相关型，大尺度500hPa环流合成分析初步表明，冬春季格陵兰附近海冰面积变化伴随着北极极涡环流和北半球阻塞高压的持续异常，海冰变化可能是影响初夏中国气温和降水的因子之一。  相似文献   

A Case Study Of An On-Ice Air Flow Over The Arctic Marginal Sea-Ice Zone     

Timo Vihma  Jörg Hartmann  Christof Lüpkes 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,107(1):189-217

A case study of warm air advection over the Arctic marginalsea-ice zone is presented, based on aircraft observations with direct flux measurements carriedout in early spring, 1998. A shallow atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) was observed, which wasgradually cooling with distance downwind of the ice edge. This process was mainly connected with astrong stable stratification and downward turbulent heat fluxes of about 10–20 W m^-2, but wasalso due to radiative cooling. Two mesoscale models, one hydrostatic and the other non-hydrostatic,having different turbulence closures, were applied. Despite these fundamental differences betweenthe models, the results of both agreed well with the observed data. Various closure assumptions had amore crucial influence on the results than the differences between the models.Such an assumption was, for example,the parameterization of the surface roughness for momentum (z₀) and heat (z_T). This stronglyaffected the wind and temperature fields not only close to the surface but also within and abovethe temperature inversion layer. The best results were achieved using a formulation for z₀ that took intoaccount the form drag effect of sea-ice ridges together withz_T = 0.1z₀. The stability within theelevated inversion strongly depended on the minimum eddy diffusivity K_min. A simple ad hocparameterization seems applicable, where K_min is calculated as 0.005 timesthe neutral eddy diffusivity. Although the longwave radiative cooling was largest within the ABL, theapplication of a radiation scheme was less important there than above the ABL. This was related to theinteraction of the turbulent and radiative fluxes. To reproduce the strong inversion, it wasnecessary to use vertical and horizontal resolutions higher than those applied in most regional andlarge-scale atmospheric models.  相似文献   

本世纪昆明气温异常及突变的分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

王宇 《高原气象》1997,16(1):73-80

根据昆明１９２１～１９９３年的年，夏季（６～８月），冬季（１２～２月）平均气温资料，分析研究了昆明的气温变化趋势，冷暖阶段，气温异常发生频率及气温突变点，结果表明：从本世纪２０年代开始，昆明气温呈上升趋势，至４０年代前后达最高，此后下降，７０年代降至最低，８０年代开始略有回升，１９２１～１９５４年为偏暖阶段，１９５５～１９９３年偏冷阶段，昆明高温异常主要出现在１９５０年以前，低温异常大多数出现在１  相似文献   

Roll Vortices and Boundary-Layer Development during a Cold Air Outbreak     

Jörg Hartmann  Christoph Kottmeier  Siegfried Raasch 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,84(1):45-65

The development of the boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the FramStrait is documented by aircraft measurements. The convection was organisedinto roll vortices with aspect ratios increasing from 2.9 near the ice edgeto more than 6 at 100 km further downstream. This increase coincides with anincrease of the latent heat release in the cloud layer. The stability parameter-zi/L varies from about zero at the ice edge to 30 at a distance of 200 kmdownstream over open water where the satellite picture still shows cloudstreets. The increase is mainly due to the deepening of the boundary layer.The turbulent vertical sensible and latent heat fluxes near the surface amountto 400 W m^-2 within a 300 km off-ice zone. 25% of the upward heat fluxin the subcloud layer is carried out by organised roll motions. Experimentswith a 2-dimensional non-hydrostatic model show a similar roll aspect ratio inthe first 50 km, but further downstream where condensational heating is moreimportant the modelled roll wavelengths are distinctly smaller than the observedones.  相似文献   

Mobility of heavy metals as a function of pH of samples from an overbank sediment profile contaminated by mining activities     

Hans-Eike Gbler 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1997,58(2-3)

Parts of the flood plains north of the Harz Mountains are contaminated with heavy metals, such as Pb, Cu, Zn and Cd derived from mining, which has been carried out in the Harz Mts. since the Middle Ages. It is important to know the mobility of the heavy metals in these overbank sediments in order to estimate the danger to the environment arising from this source. This paper deals with the effect of pH on heavy-metal mobility, using a constant-pH method. The investigations were carried out on an overbank sediment profile near Salzgitter Bad, north of the Harz Mts. The mobility of the heavy metals in the overbank sediment profile is described as a function of pH and depth. Besides the mobile heavy-metal fraction at a certain pH, the buffering capacity of the sediment at this pH must be taken into consideration. The different layers of the overbank sediment profile show distinct differences in buffering capacity and a natural pH harrier could be identified in the upper part of the profile. Therefore, to avoid increasing heavy-metal mobility the natural layering of the overbank sediment profile should not be disturbed. Two different kinds of desorption experiments at constant pH are also discussed, as well as the conversion of the heavy-metal species in the ore minerals into the species in the sediment.  相似文献   

高坝泄流雾化环境污染原体观测研究          下载免费PDF全文

吴福生  程和森 《水科学进展》1997,8(2):189-196

高水头大流量的泄水建筑物泄流时产生严重泄流雾化对工程和环境造成污染,是必须考虑的重要问题。介绍了泄流雾化观测的新技术及其原理,包括:用立体摄影测量方法观测雾化流运动扩散的形态范围;用放射性同位素测量典型区域内泄流雾化浓度,并配合以雨量简测量典型范围内泄流雾化降雨强度等。并以漫湾水电站原体观测为实例,介绍了实施方法和效果。  相似文献   

垃圾和垃圾学──一门新兴科学的出现及其对中国固体废物处理事业的意义     

郑毅 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1996,(1)

垃圾产生于社会的每一个角落，垃圾也反映了人类生活的各个方面。可是，直至最近，社会依然极少理会垃圾中真正蕴藏着些什么，以及垃圾能够告诉我们些什么。１９７３年美国图森市亚利桑那大学威廉·拉舍基博士（ＷｉｌｌｉａｍＬＲａｔｈｊｅ）及其同事们所建立并发展的垃级计划，标志着一门新科学──垃圾学的兴起，即垃圾的系统研究、垃圾产生、运移、利用和处置的机理以及相关的社会经济和环境问题。美国和其它少数国家的垃圾学研究所揭示的各种事实、定律和原理，正划时代地碰击着现代社会、社会心理学、市场和许多其它领域，大量的城市固体废物不仅意味着自然资源的巨大浪费，而且垃圾处理，无论焚化或者填埋，都对环境构成了严重污染的威胁，尤其是对地下水资源。垃圾的管理、再循环和处置费用是昂贵的，而且总是受到错综复杂的社会和法律冲突的挑战，纽约和美国东部其它人口稠密地区所面临的严峻形势就是最好的例证，解决现今进退维谷的垃圾问题，需要包括技术的、社会的、环境的、经济的、政治的、法律的和公共教育在内的多方面协作。中国正经历着令人振奋的经济发展时期。预计以现在的国民经济发展速度，以及因巨量人口而导致的社会消费的急剧增长，在未来１０～２０年内，很有可能导致严重的  相似文献