A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels     

Ivan D. Haigh  Robert Nicholls  Neil Wells 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.  相似文献   

青海省祁漫塔格地区1∶5万水系沉积物测量衬值异常圈定实例     

赵娟 《地质与勘探》2016,52(3):518-523

青海省祁漫塔格地区位于柴达木盆地西南缘,是青海省重要的铁多金属成矿基地之一。利用88442个野外采样点1∶5万水系沉积物测量数据,采用Geo Expl软件圈定了该地区的衬值异常。衬值是指各元素0.5 km×0.5 km网格化数据与其园域搜索半径5km、移动步长0.5km移动平均值的比值。选用自定义累频"90、95、98、100"确定了异常的外、中、内带。通过常规方法和衬值圈定的异常的对比,表明衬值异常能够削弱不同地质背景差异,使异常形态更为规整,浓集中心更为明显,并且可能发现新异常。  相似文献   

豫西地区雷暴预警预报系统构建方法研究     

李振锋  付伟基  陈红霞 《气象与环境科学》2016,39(4):126-134

目前,基层台站在雷暴预警预报中主要依赖传统经验预报方法,而对卫星云图、大气电场、多普勒雷达回波和高分辨率数值预报产品等资料释用水平不高,存在主观定性分析多、客观定量计算少等不足。依托现有气象资料和雷暴预报方法,以雷暴预警预报系统构建为目标,从气象数据仓库构建、支持向量机雷暴预报、相似预报雷暴预报、Poor Man集合预报技术和多源数据融合分析等方面,探讨了雷暴预警预报系统构建方法,实现了雷暴中期预测、短期预报和短时临近预警三个层次的预报功能,解决了气象资料庞杂难以管理、数值预报产品释用水平不高、数值预报结果存在"跃变"、多源数据融合分析缺乏手段等问题,提高了基层台站雷暴预报工作效率和预报水平,同时也为其他地区类似系统构建提供了参考。  相似文献   

时变参数灰色模型背景值重构及实现     

周万春  周强波  黄九松  刘鸿剑 《测绘科学》2016,41(6):173-178

针对时变参数灰色模型PGM(1,1)的背景值重构收敛速度及稳定性问题,该文运用积分的方法综合序列在Δt内不同变化趋势,导出背景值模型的准确表达式。实现了反映序列对新老信息偏爱程度的最优权值介于(0,1)内,且非不能越过某一阈值;给出了背景值重构模型最优解准确求取的具体算法步骤。基于MATLAB语言的实验结果表明:改进模型预测精度高,易于实现;所研究的带权灰色模型GM(1,n)背景值模型的重构及计算方法验证了PGM(1,1)模型重构及计算实现方法的有效性和实用性。  相似文献   

Remote sensing and information value (IV) model for regional mapping of fluvial channels and topographic wetness in the Saudi Arabia     

Mohamed Mostafa Mohamed 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2016,53(4):520-541

This study aims to map regions of near surface fluvial channels, mega-basins and topographic wetness in Saudi Arabia using remote sensing data and an information value (IV) model, which is a modified approach of weight of evidence. We used the new version of the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) to delineate the fluvial channels, mega-basin, and slope. These hydrological parameters were used to index the topographic wetness of each mega-basin in the region based on IV in a Geographic Information System. We validated our method using the Space Imaging Radar-C and Landsat 8 images and compared the textural features (fluvial channels) evident from SRTM digital elevation model and to determine whether these patterns were different. Our results revealed that the region is drained by nine tributaries and that the Err Rub Al Khali and Sahba mega-basins have the highest value of the IV and topographic wetness values; the Arran and coastal mega-basins have the lowest value of the IV and topographic wetness values. An integrated approach is timely and economically effective and can be applied throughout the arid and semi-arid regions to help hydrologists and urban developers.  相似文献   

河元背地区绳索取心钻进泵压计算模型的建立与应用          下载免费PDF全文

康鑫  李生海  刘晓阳  王荣璟  段隆臣 《探矿工程》2016,43(2):28-31

泵压是反映金刚石绳索取心钻进时井内作业是否正常的重要参数。为了进一步研究泵压波动变化与实际钻进作业之间的关系,指导钻进工作的快速、安全开展,结合江西相山河元背地区CUSD2井实际泵压波动数据及相关钻进资料,建立了适用于本井的循环系统压力损失计算模型。对比分析模型计算的理论泵压与实际泵压的波动变化趋势,将模型应用于实际钻进,在此基础上预测后续地层的泵压波动区域范围,发现7 MPa的泵压安全值不再适用于后续地层钻进,调整设置泵压安全值为10 MPa,并利用邻井泵压波动数据进一步验证其可靠性。适当调整修正理论模型,使其可应用于河元背以及相山地区绳索取心钻进中,指导该地区钻探工作。  相似文献   

Task-oriented information value measurement based on space-time prisms     

Yingjie Hu  Krzysztof Janowicz  Yuqi Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(6):1228-1249

Recent years have witnessed a large increase in the amount of information available from the Web and many other sources. Such an information deluge presents a challenge for individuals who have to identify useful information items to complete particular tasks in hand. Information value theory (IVT) from economics and artificial intelligence has provided some guidance on this issue. However, existing IVT studies often focus on monetary values, while ignoring the spatiotemporal properties which can play important roles in everyday tasks. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework for task-oriented information value measurement. This framework integrates IVT with the space-time prism from time geography and measures the value of information based on its impact on an individual’s space-time prisms and its capability of improving task planning. We develop and formalize this framework by extending the utility function from space-time accessibility studies and elaborate it using a simplified example from time geography. We conduct a simulation on a real-world transportation network using the proposed framework. Our research could be applied to improving information display on small-screen mobile devices (e.g., smartwatches) by assigning priorities to different information items.  相似文献   

Student Perceptions of a Recreation Trail Assignment as a Valuable Learning Experience for Geography Undergraduates     

Jo Beth Mullens 《The Journal of geography》2016,115(6):244-255

Charging undergraduate geography students with the task of designing a recreational trail in their local community offers an engaging experiential opportunity with potential to advance geographic learning in a real-world setting. This article presents an assignment in which students were asked to develop a recreational trail proposal for an undeveloped local conservation area and the results of a survey that asked the students to reflect and report upon the educational value of this experience one year later. Results of the survey validated the assignment's lasting value to the students across the cognitive, psychomotor, and affective learning domains.  相似文献   

基于多元对应分析的国家地质公园综合价值及分类   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘佳  姚华军  高伟  冯春涛  李闵 《地质通报》2016,35(5):842-849

目前地质公园的分类难以针对具有多重价值属性的各类地质公园提出行之有效的分类管理模式。提出基于综合价值的国家地质公园分类模式,建立了国家地质公园综合价值评价指标,通过问卷调查与小组讨论获取了35个国家地质公园的量化综合价值评价指标数据,应用多元对应分析对量化数据进行统计处理,最后将35个国家地质公园分为禀赋型地质公园、生态型地质公园、成熟型地质公园、均衡型地质公园和发展型地质公园五大类,为国家地质公园分类管理提供依据。  相似文献   

西藏“一江三河”地区地下水环境背景值初步研究     

耿婷婷  李颖智  张涛  张智印  赵淼 《地质与资源》2018,27(5):480-487

在分析对比国内外研究方法的基础上,选择数理统计方法,通过最广泛的数理统计法的应用原则、数据检验、背景值取值等问题的论述,对西藏"一江三河"地区地下水水质指标TDS,Ca²+,Mg²⁺,Na⁺环境背景值进行研究,并初步探讨了它们的空间分布规律及控制因素.结果表明,地形地貌、区域水动力条件等因素对研究区地下水指标的空间分布起主要控制作用.该结果为评价西藏"一江三河"地区地下水污染状况提供科学的依据.  相似文献