中国东部植被NDVI对气温和降水的时空响应(英文)   总被引：8，自引：4，他引：4  

崔林丽  史军 《地理学报(英文版)》2010,20(2):163-176

Temporal and spatial response characteristics of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation in the whole year,spring,summer and autumn was analyzed from April 1998 to March 2008 based on the SPOT VGT-NDVI data and daily temperature and precipitation data from 205 meteorological stations in eastern China.The results indicate that as a whole,the response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature is more pronounced than that of precipitation in eastern China.Vegetation NDVI maxi...  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan     

Ijaz Hussain  Gunter Spöck  Jürgen Pilz  Hwa-Lung Yu 《Advances in water resources》2010

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space–time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space–time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box–Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space–time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974–2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space–time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.  相似文献   

Origin of CO_2 in natural gas from the Triassic Feixianguan Formation of Northeast Sichuan Basin     

HUANG SiJing  HUANG KeKe  TONG HongPeng  LIU LiHong  SUN Wei & ZHONG QianQian State Key Lab of Oil  Gas Reservoir Geology  Exploitation 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2010,(5)

The natural gas from the Triassic Feixianguan Formation of Northeast Sichuan Basin contains high H2S whereas relatively low CO2 concentrations and the CO2 display high δ13C values (ranging from -5.81‰ to 3.3‰ (PDB)). This seems to contradict the conventional wisdom that TSR should be a primary source of CO2 in natural gas from the Feixianguan Formation. In contrast, many authigenic calcite samples from these sites display very low δ13C values (ranging from -18.4‰ to -10.3‰ (PDB)). This suggests that the carbon from TSR source dominated the formation of calcite whereas the carbon from inorganic source came into CO2 in natural gas. In order to assess the origin of CO2 from these H2S-rich sites, we have calculated the relative contributions of organic and inorganic carbon sources to the CO2 and authigenic calcite. The organic carbon source possibly originated from TSR, whereas the inorganic one might be generated from marine carbonates dissolution. This calculation is based on the carbon isotopic compositions of CO2 and authigenic calcite as well as an isotopic mass balance. The results show that the contribution of organic carbon source to the CO2 is only 2%, whereas that to authigenic calcite is as high as 43% on average. Such results combined with thermodynamic evidence indicate that the isotopically light CO2 produced by TSR process may contribute to authigenic calcite precipitation during burial diagenesis. Distinguishable from Ordovician reservoir of Tarim Basin, Feixianguan reservoir of Northeast Sichuan Basin experienced rapid tectonic uplift due to Yanshanian movement after TSR occurred. Such tectonic event could induce temperature decrease and further promote carbonates dissolution. During these processes, secondary porosity has developed in Feixianguan carbonate reservoirs. Therefore, much attention should be paid to the structural highs in search of high quality carbonate reservoirs.  相似文献   

高原季风对500hPa中纬度西风带活动的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

田俊  马振峰  范广洲 《成都信息工程学院学报》2010,25(1):61-68

利用1948--2008年NCEP／NCAR逐月再分析资料和1958—2007年中国560站夏季降水资料,设计了一个区域西风指数,探讨了高原夏季风和500百帕中纬度西风带活动的时间一频率多层次年际、年代际时间尺度变化特征以及对我国夏季降水的影响。结果表明：高原夏季风对区域西风带活动具有显著的影响,近61年来,两者总体变化趋势相反,前者增强后者减弱。除了都具有1—2年、27—28年和线性趋势变化的共同周期外,还呈现出各自的周期变化,并且均发生过一次年代际气候跃变现象,前者发生在20世纪70年代中期,后者发生在80年代中期,高原夏季风由偏弱转为偏强,区域西风由偏强转入偏弱,在跃变前后两者各种周期的时间尺度和强度存在明显的不同。如果排除1—2年周期的不确定性,预计接下来高原夏季风将直接进入偏弱期,区域西风指数可能在3—4年后才转入偏强期,并且高原夏季风会比区域西风指数提前发生突变,对区域西风指数具有一定的指示意义。高原夏季风不仅自身对我国夏季降水产生重要的作用,同时,它通过影响中纬度西风带的活动,间接地影响着我国的夏季降水。  相似文献   

川渝地区夏季降水变化气候特征分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

毛文书  曾戢  孙云  张艳艳  杨冬冬 《成都信息工程学院学报》2010,25(2):172-178

利用川渝地区34站1960—2006年共计47年的逐月降水量资料,采用经验正交函数（BOF）分解、旋转经验正交函数（REOF）分解、小波分析等方法详细讨论了川渝地区夏季降水量的时空变化特征。结果表明：川渝地区夏季降水量时空分布不均,川渝地区夏季降水量可以分为3个区,分别是川西高原区、盆地中部区和盆地东部区。近50年来,川渝地区夏季降水量具有显著不同的年代际变化特征,川西高原和盆地东部夏季降水量长期变化呈增加的趋势,而盆地中部呈减少的趋势。川渝各区夏季降水量具有显著不同的多时间尺度的周期变化特征,其中川西高原具有准15年和准5年的周期变化特征,盆地中部具有准14年、准6年和准3年的周期变化,盆地东部具有准16年、准8年和准3年的周期变化特征。  相似文献   

年降水量变化条件下农灌引水与开采对地下水位影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

严明疆  王金哲  李德龙  张光辉 《水文地质工程地质》2010,37(3):27-30

通过分析滹沱河流域降水量对黄壁庄水库径流量及石津灌区引水量影响,及其对引水量利用效率及地下水开采量影响分析表明,降水量与水库径流量、引水量和弃水量具有一定的正相关性,与引水利用效率成负相关。渠灌区农业地下水开采受降水量影响不明显,多年地下水位在潜水强蒸发带区间波动;井灌区以开采地下水灌溉为主,并受到降水量的明显影响,地下水呈逐年下降趋势。由此不同变化趋势,提出渠灌区适度开采浅层咸水与渠水混合灌溉,扩大渠灌面积,减少井灌区面积,对缓和井灌区地下水位下降有重要意义。  相似文献   

An exploratory study of spatial annual maximum of monthly precipitation in the northern region of Portugal     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

Adequately analyzing and modeling the extreme rainfall events is of great importance because of the effects that their magnitude and frequency can have on human life, agricultural productivity and economic aspects, among others. A single extreme event may affect several locations, and their spatial dependence has to be appropriately taken into account. Classical geostatistics is a well-developed field for dealing with location referenced data, but it is largely based on Gaussian processes and distributions, that are not appropriate for extremes. In this paper, an exploratory study of the annual maximum of monthly precipitation recorded in the northern area of Portugal from 1941 to 2006 at 32 locations is performed. The aim of this paper is to apply max-stable processes, a natural extension of multivariate extremes to the spatial set-up, to briefly describe the models considered and to estimate the required parameters to simulate prediction maps.  相似文献   

Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

This work presents a methodology to make statistical significant and robust inferences on climate change from an ensemble of model simulations. This methodology is used to assess climate change projections of the Iberian daily-total precipitation for a near-future (2021–2050) and a distant-future (2069–2098) climates, relatively to a reference past climate (1961–1990).Climate changes of precipitation spatial patterns are estimated for annual and seasonal values of: (i) total amount of precipitation (PRCTOT), (ii) maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), (iii) maximum of total amount of 5-consecutive wet days (Rx5day), and (iv) percentage of total precipitation occurred in days with precipitation above the 95th percentile of the reference climate (R95T). Daily-total data were obtained from the multi-model ensemble of fifteen Regional Climate Model simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. These regional models were driven by boundary conditions imposed by Global Climate Models that ran under the 20C3M conditions from 1961 to 2000, and under the A1B scenario, from 2001 to 2100, defined by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Non-parametric statistical methods are used for significant climate change detection: linear trends for the entire period (1961–2098) estimated by the Theil-Sen method with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Kendall test, and climate-median differences between the two future climates and the past climate with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Whitney test. Significant inferences of climate change spatial patterns are made after these non-parametric statistics of the multi-model ensemble median, while the associated uncertainties are quantified by the spread of these statistics across the multi-model ensemble. Significant and robust climate change inferences of the spatial patterns are then obtained by building the climate change patterns using only the grid points where a significant climate change is found with a predefined low uncertainty.Results highlight the importance of taking into account the spread across an ensemble of climate simulations when making inferences on climate change from the ensemble-mean or ensemble-median. This is specially true for climate projections of extreme indices such CDD and R95T. For PRCTOT, a decrease in annual precipitation over the entire peninsula is projected, specially in the north and northwest where it can decrease down to 400 mm by the middle of the 21st century. This decrease is expected to occur throughout the year except in winter. Annual CDD is projected to increase till the middle of the 21st century overall the peninsula, reaching more than three weeks in the southwest. This increase is projected to occur in summer and spring. For Rx5day, a decrease is projected to occur during spring and autumn in the major part of the peninsula, and during summer in northern Iberia. Finally, R95T is projected to decrease around 20% in northern Iberia in summer, and around 15% in the south-southwest in autumn.  相似文献   

Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

Spatial and temporal distributions of the trends of extreme precipitation indices were analysed between 1986 and 2005, over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The knowledge of the patterns of extreme precipitation is important for impacts assessment, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. As such, there is a growing need for a more detailed knowledge of precipitation climate change.This analysis was performed for Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and results performed by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were computed, by year and season. Then, annual and seasonal trends of the indices were estimated by Theil-Sen method and their significance was tested by the Mann-Kendal test. Additionally, a second simulation forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), was considered. This second modelling configuration was created in order to assess its performance when simulating extremes of precipitation.The annual trends estimated for the 1986–2005, from the observational datasets and from the ERA-driven simulation reveal: 1) negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index in the Galicia and in the centre of the IP; 2) positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index over the south of the IP and negative statistically significant trends in Galicia, north and centre of Portugal; 3) positive statistically significant trends of the R75p index in some regions of the north of the IP; 4) positive statistically significant trends in the R95pTOT index in the Central Mountains Chain, Leon Mountains and in the north of Portugal.Seasonally, negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index were found in Galicia, in winter and in the south of the IP, in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CWD index were identified in the Leon Mountains, in spring, and in Galicia, in autumn. For the CDD index, negative statistically significant trends were seen in Valencia, in the spring, and, in Galicia and Portugal (north and centre), in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index were found: in the east of the IP, in the winter; in the Cantabrian Mountain, in the spring; and, in the south of the IP, in summer. Regarding to the R75p index, negative statistically significant trends were found in Galicia, in winter and positive statistically significant trends in the north of Portugal, in spring and in the Central Mountains Chain and north of Portugal, in autumn. For the R95pTOT index, negative statistically significant trends were found over the Sierra Cuenca and Sierra Cazorla, in winter and positive statistically significant trends were found over the Sierra Cebollera, in winter and in Castile-la Mancha region, in spring.The results of the annual and seasonal trends of the extreme precipitation indices performed for observational datasets and the simulation forced by ERA-Interim, are similar. The results obtained for the simulation forced by MPI-ESM are not satisfactory, and can be a source of criticism for the use of simulation forced by MPI-ESM in this type of climate change studies. Even for the relatively short period used, the WRF model, when properly forced is a useful tool due to the similar results of Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and the simulation forced by ERA-Interim.  相似文献   

河北唐山地区盛汛期短时强降水概念模型及物理量特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

花家嘉  张婉莹  陈桂万  钟方潜  周任君 《冰川冻土》2016,38(2):463-472

利用2006-2013年区域自动站降水资料以及NCEP再分析资料,应用EOF分析和中尺度天气图分析等方法对唐山地区盛汛期短历时强降水的时空分布特征、天气学概念模型以及物理量特征进行研究.结果表明：唐山东北部是短时强降水的活跃区、西南部为不活跃区,但西南部极端短时强降水更强;存在5种降水空间分布类型,分别是“一致型”“西北多型”“东南多型”“东北异常偏多型”“东北异常偏少型”.700 hPa切变线是否断裂、副热带高压及高低空急流的位置以及高低空干湿区配置决定了降水分布;短时强降水发生时局地水汽丰富,暖云层厚度较大,垂直风切变较弱,存在一定的不稳定能量,强天气威胁指数较小、0℃层较高,大多数类型都有强的水汽辐合,但“东北异常偏多型”辐合较弱,其水汽主要来源于本地.  相似文献