小湾水电站库区新民坝子滑坡稳定性研究     

刘云鹏  黄润秋  邓辉 《山地学报》2011,29(3)

水库库区形成以后,由于水位的上升变动往往触发相当数量的坍塌和滑坡,对库岸稳定性造成严重影响.以小湾水电站库区新民坝子滑坡为例,在岸坡地质条件及变形破坏特征调查的基础上,对其变形破坏机制和稳定性进行分析和评价,得出其变形破坏方式为前缘一后缘逐级后退式失稳模式,且现状处于欠稳定状态;通过概化其地质模型,采用FLAc3D数值模拟手段进行流固耦合分析,得出水位上升至调查水位1 160 m高程和正常蓄水位1 240 m高程时的岸坡稳定性状况,计算结果表明蓄水至1 240 m高程后岸坡存在产生较大规模失稳的可能.这对类似库岸滑坡的调查分析具有一定参考意义.  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯估计的平滑算法     

宋超  郝金明 《测绘科学》2013,38(3)

基于贝叶斯估计的平滑算法是在事后处理的情况下,依据过去直至现在的观测值去估计过去的历史状态,以有效提高精度。而滤波是依据过去直至现在的观测值去估计现在的状态。从理论上讲,由于平滑用了所求估计时刻之后的观测值,平滑算法应比滤波优异一些。本文设计了2个实验仿真计算,在逼近效果和RMS等方面分别与Kalman滤波和双向滤波加权平均进行了比较。经实验证明,无论是逼近效果还是RMS,平滑算法都要更优一些。  相似文献   

Frequency‐space wavefield extrapolation using infinite impulse response digital filters: is it feasible?     

Wail A. Mousa 《Geophysical Prospecting》2013,61(3):504-515

The purpose of this paper is to study the possibility of performing practically stable and efficient frequency‐space (f?x) wavefield extrapolation for the application of seismic imaging and datuming via infinite impulse response (IIR) filters. The model reduction control theory was adopted to design such IIR f?x extrapolation filters. The model reduction theory reduces the order of a given order system which, in this case, involves reducing a finite impulse response (FIR) f?x extrapolation filter system into an IIR f?x extrapolation filter system. This theory relies on decomposing the states of the given filter system into strong and weakly coupled sub‐systems, and then eliminating the weakly coupled states via singular value decomposition of the Hankel and the impulse response Gramian matrices. Simulation results indicate that IIR f?x filters can be obtained, which are stable from an IIR filter design point of view. Simulations also indicate that stable seismic impulse responses and synthetics can be obtained with a reduced system model order and, hence, less computational efforts with respect to the number of complex multiplications and additions per output sample. It is hoped that this study will open new possibilities for researchers to reconsider designing IIR f?x explicit depth extrapolation filters due to their expected computational savings and wavenumber response accuracy, when compared to the FIR f?x explicit depth extrapolation filters.  相似文献   

Moisture Transport and Associated Background Circulation for the Regional Extreme Precipitation Events over South China in Recent 41 Years     

杨雯婷  傅慎明  孙建华  汪汇洁  付亚男  曾垂宽 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2023,29(1):101-114

Based on the hourly precipitation data at 176 observational stations over south China and the hourly ERA5reanalysis data during the 40-yr period of 1981-2020, we analyzed the universal characteristics of moisture transport and their associated background circulations for four types of regional extreme precipitation events(REPEs) over south China. Main findings are shown as follow.(i) The wind that transported moisture for the REPEs over south China featured a notable diurnal variation, which was...  相似文献   

雷达外推与数值模式动态融合降水概率预报方法     

薛峰  王兴  吴双  苗春生  张琳焓 《气象科技》2017,45(6):1036-1042

提出一种基于动态权重的降水概率融合预报方法。首先建立一个适用于权重分配的评分模型,对基于雷达光流外推的降水概率预报和基于数值模式经反射率换算后的降水概率预报的预报准确率分别加以评估;提出一种改进的Brier评分法,该方法兼顾了降水落区的大小和降水量,降低评分对样本数据数量多少的敏感性;根据两种在不同预报时效的评分,动态地分配两种预报方法在不同预报时效的权重。试验部分通过Brier等评分验证表明,融合后各个预报时效的预报都表现出与雷达外推或数值模式相近甚至更高的技术评分。  相似文献   

山东惠民黑碳气溶胶变化特征及来源分析          下载免费PDF全文

张玉洁  涂爱琴  张武  边智  王丽娟 《山东气象》2021,41(2):86-96

利用山东惠民国家基准气候站2018年12月—2019年11月的黑碳质量浓度、常规气象观测资料以及 GDAS 数据,研究了该地区黑碳气溶胶的变化特征,并基于后向轨迹模型对其潜在源区进行了分析。研究结果表明: 1）观测期间,黑碳质量浓度平均值为 3.22 µg ? m-3,季节变化呈冬、春季高,夏、秋季低的特点;春、夏、秋季黑碳质量浓度的高频值在 2 µg ? m-3 以内,冬季的高频值在 6 µg ? m-3 以上。2）黑碳质量浓度日变化呈双峰结构,峰值分别出现在 06:00—08:00 和 19:00—21:00,谷值出现于 13:00—15:00。3）降雨和风对黑碳质量浓度有明显影响。非降雨期黑碳质量浓度是降雨期的 2.8 倍;当风速小于 3 m ? s-1 时,黑碳质量浓度随风速增大而减小;冬季在西南西方向、春季在正南方向过来的气团易造成黑碳质量浓度高污染。4）惠民气流输送的季节变化特征明显。春、秋、冬季来自鲁中、河北和苏北等周边地区的气流所占比例较高,对应黑碳质量浓度高值;夏季来自海洋方向的气流占比较高,对应的黑碳质量浓度较低。  相似文献   

我国新疆北部积雪中痕量元素的时空分布及污染评估     

王鑫  王宁练  王俊杰  申保收 《冰川冻土》2021,43(5):1354-1364

积雪中记录的痕量元素含量,能很好地评估当地大气污染状况。利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪（ICP-MS）,对2018年1月和3月采自新疆北部的天山北坡、伊犁河谷、塔城地区和阿勒泰地区的积雪样品进行了16种痕量元素测试。结果表明：北疆地区积雪中痕量元素含量的平均值在0.06 ng·g^-1（Cd）～1 481.1 ng·g^-1（Al）之间。时间分布上,消融期多数痕量元素浓度低于积累期、稳定期;Pb、Cr等元素消融期含量高于其他时期,可能与外源输入有关。空间分布上,塔城地区和天山北坡的多数痕量元素含量高出伊犁河谷和阿勒泰地区1~3倍。与其他地区雪冰中痕量元素含量对比,发现新疆北部高出青藏高原北部1~3倍,与受人类活动影响较大的天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川相应痕量元素浓度接近,揭示了新疆北部积雪中痕量元素较高的浓度特征。元素富集系数表明,Fe、Be等元素主要来自地壳粉尘,Pb、Cd、Zn、As等元素呈显著富集（EFc>10）,受人类排放活动主导。结合后向气团轨迹分析,塔城地区的痕量元素可能受到哈萨克斯坦的影响,阿勒泰地区的痕量元素可能受到中亚、阿尔泰山南缘等地的影响,天山北坡与伊犁河谷主要受新疆本地气团的影响。  相似文献   

Multi‐site evaluation of hydrology component of SWAT in the coastal plain of southwest Georgia     

Jaepil Cho  David Bosch  George Vellidis  Richard Lowrance  Timothy Strickland 《水文研究》2013,27(12):1691-1700

Simulation of watershed scale hydrologic and water quality processes is important for watershed assessments. Proper characterization of the accuracy of these simulations, particularly in cases with limited observed data, is critical. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is frequently used for watershed scale simulation. The accuracy of the model was assessed by extrapolating calibration results from a well studied Coastal Plain watershed in Southwest Georgia, USA, to watersheds within the same geographic region without further calibration. SWAT was calibrated and validated on a 16.7‐km² subwatershed within the Little River Experimental Watershed by varying six model parameters. The optimized parameter set was then applied to a watershed of similar land use and soils, a smaller watershed with different land use and soils and three larger watersheds within the same drainage system without further calibration. Simulation results with percent bias (PB) ±15% ≤ PB < ±25% and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.50 < NSE ≤ 0.65 were considered to be satisfactory, whereas those with PB < ±10% and 0.75 < NSE ≤ 1.00 were considered very good. With these criteria, simulation results for the five non‐calibration watersheds were satisfactory to very good. Differences across watersheds were attributed to differences in soils, land use, and surficial aquifer characteristics. These results indicate that SWAT can be a useful tool for predicting streamflow for ungauged watersheds with similar physical characteristics to the calibration watershed studied here and provide an indication of the accuracy of hydrologic simulations for ungauged watersheds. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

对多普勒雷达集合交叉相关外推技术的构造与实例检验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

符式红  钟青  寿绍文 《气象》2012,38(1):47-55

本文构造了集合的线性交叉相关方法,对多普勒雷达回波进行外推。因为线性交叉相关算法仅根据两个时次的回波外推下一时次的回波分布,且对于单个外推回波单元是线性变化的;而基于集合的线性交叉相关方法,考虑了多时刻回波的演变过程、回波的移向和移速以及回波在移动过程中的形变,都具有非线性特征,与实际情况更为符合。本文利用集合的线性交叉相关方法和最小二乘拟合方法分别对两次暴雨过程进行回波外推,通过比较发现,利用集合交叉相关外推方法所推得的回波分布与实况更为接近;利用Z-I关系,进一步分析了基于集合交叉相关外推方法的降水评分。与最小二乘拟合方法外推相比,集合交叉相关外推技术所得的回波移动位置与实况较为一致,且1小时累积降水预报效果也较好,因此集合交叉相关外推技术在临近预报中具有一定的应用价值。  相似文献   

A Composite Approach of Radar Echo Extrapolation Based on TREC Vectors in Combination with Model-Predicted Winds   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

LIANG Qiaoqian  FENG Yerong  DENG Wenjian  HU Sheng  HUANG Yanyan  ZENG Qin  CHEN Zitong 《大气科学进展》2010,27(5):1119-1130

Extending the lead time of precipitation nowcasts is vital to improvements in heavy rainfall warning, flood mitigation, and water resource management. Because the TREC vector (tracking radar echo by correlation) represents only the instantaneous trend of precipitation echo motion, the approach using derived echo motion vectors to extrapolate radar reflectivity as a rainfall forecast is not satisfactory if the lead time is beyond 30 minutes. For longer lead times, the effect of ambient winds on echo movement should be considered. In this paper, an extrapolation algorithm that extends forecast lead times up to 3 hours was developed to blend TREC vectors with model-predicted winds. The TREC vectors were derived from radar reflectivity patterns in 3 km height CAPPI (constant altitude plan position indicator) mosaics through a cross-correlation technique. The background steering winds were provided by predictions of the rapid update assimilation model CHAF (cycle of hourly assimilation and forecast). A similarity index was designed to determine the vertical level at which model winds were applied in the extrapolation process, which occurs via a comparison between model winds and radar vectors. Based on a summer rainfall case study, it is found that the new algorithm provides a better forecast.  相似文献