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11.
2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生Mw8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。 相似文献
12.
Jean-Michel Lefèvre 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(2):361-370
Long and high swells are dangerous for many islands located in the Tropics because they can generate large breakers and long
run up associated with large set up when reaching the coast. Most of the time those islands do not experience large waves
especially in usually protected areas, for instance, by coral reefs or wind protected. Long waves have the ability to reach
such areas, thanks to wave set up, shoaling and bottom refraction. This article describes an example of such high swell events
and its impact on the islands. The buoy network used by the French National Weather Service and all available satellite observations
related to waves are presented together with numerical sea-state models used to issue early warnings. 相似文献
13.
This paper describes a new procedure of directional wave analysis from pitch-roll buoy measurements. The two previous procedures adopted by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) [Steele, K. E., Lau, J. C. K. and Hsu, Y.-H. L. (1985) Theory and application of calibration techniques for an NDBC directional wave measurement buoy. IEEE Journal of Oceanic Engineering OE-10(4), 382-396; Steele, K. E., Teng, C.-C. and Wang, D. W. C. (1992) Wave direction measurements using pitch-roll buoys. Ocean Engineering 19(4), 349-375] are relevant to our formulations. In these two studies, an estimate for the total phase shift of the sea surface displacement/slope spectra from the measured buoy heave/pitch and heave/roll spectra was calculated either by a weighted average method or a maximum heave/pitch quad-spectrum method. These two formulations were based on a fundamental assumption of symmetric hull-mooring effect on pitch and roll motions, which will never be true in the oceans. In the present study we essentially incorporate the basic formulations of NDBC, but calculate two estimates for this total phase shift.Examples of directional wave analysis from data measured by a 3 m diameter discus buoy during Typhoon Herb are presented in this paper. This data set was also analyzed by the weighted average method of Steele et al. (1985) which yielded unsatisfactory results of wave directions during severe wave climates. 相似文献
14.
Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
E. van Sebille P.J. van Leeuwen A. Biastoch C.N. Barron W.P.M. de Ruijter 《Ocean Modelling》2009,29(4):269-276
The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region. 相似文献
15.
为了对海表温度(SeaSurfaceTemperature,SST)和海表盐度(SeaSurfaceSalinity,SSS)数据进行精确的短期预报,基于多站位海洋观测浮标获取的海表温度和海表盐度数据,利用反向传播(BackPropagation,BP)和径向基函数(RadialBasisFunction,RBF)两种神经网络方法开展了短期预测。首先,在预测时长固定为5d的情况下,对比不同训练时长的预测结果的均方误差(MeanSquaredError,MSE),进而确定以20d的观测数据作为训练集的预测结果均方误差最小。然后,以 PAPA 站观测浮标获取的2009年1月、4月、7月和10月各月的前20d温盐数据作为训练集,分别训练BP和 RBF神经网络,将训练好的2种神经网络模型应用于各月第21至25日的温盐数据预测。结果表明:BP和 RBF神经网络均能有效预测海表温盐数据的季节性变化,但 RBF神经网络对不同预测时间的整体预测效果优于 BP神经网络。多站点数据的预测实验进一步验证了 RBF神经网络模型具有较强适用性和更高的准确性。RBF神经网络模型可以作为海表温盐数据短期预报的有力工具。 相似文献
16.
基于热带大洋地区共23个海洋定点浮标雨量器数据比较了GPM和TRMM两种卫星降水数据(IMERG和TMPA)对热带海洋降水日变化的观测能力,选取时间为2014年4月1日—2018年4月30日。相较于浮标观测结果,2种卫星数据都低估了降水日变化范围。在太平洋和印度洋,IMERG和TMPA都能捕捉到降水极大值出现在早上、极小值出现在傍晚的特征,与浮标观测结果基本吻合。在大西洋,两种卫星数据与浮标观测的降水日变化特征有较大差异,主要是由于大西洋降水较少,而卫星对小降水的观测存在较大偏差,同时浮标观测在小降水区域更容易存在误差。 相似文献
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Ana J. Abascal Sonia Castanedo Raul Medina Maria Liste 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(11):2099-2110
A statistical oil spill response model is developed and validated by means of actual oil slick observations reported during the Prestige accident and trajectories of drifter buoys. The model is based on the analysis of a database of hypothetical oil spill scenarios simulated by means of a Lagrangian transport model. To carry out the simulations, a re-analysis database consisting of 44-year hindcast dataset of wind and waves and climatologic daily mean surface currents is used. The number of scenarios required to obtain statistically reliable results is investigated, finding that 200 scenarios provide an optimal balance between the accuracy of the results and the computational effort. The reliability of the model was analyzed by comparing the actual data with the numerical results. The agreement found between actual and numerical data shows that the developed statistical oil spill model is a valuable tool to support spill response planning. 相似文献
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快速准确的海啸源模型是近场海啸精确预警的关键.尽管目前还没有办法直接对其进行正演定量计算,但是可以通过多源地震、海啸观测数据进行反演或联合反演推算.不同的海啸源可能导致不同的预警结论,了解不同类型海啸源适用性、评估海啸源特征差异对近场海啸的影响,无论对于海啸预警还是海啸模拟研究尤为重要.本文评估分析了6种不同同震断层模型对2011年3月11日日本东北地震海啸近场数值预报的影响,重点对比分析了有限断层模型与均一滑动场模型对近场海啸产生、传播、淹没特征的影响及各自的误差.研究表明:近场海啸波能量分布主要取决于海啸源分布特征,特别是走向角的差异对海啸能量分布影响较大;有限断层模型对海啸灾害最为严重的39°N以南沿岸地区的最大海啸爬坡高度明显优于均一滑动场模型结果;综合对比DART浮标、GPS浮标及近岸潮位站共32个站次的海啸波幅序列结果发现有限断层模型整体平均绝对/相对误差比均一滑动场模型平均误差要低,其中Fujii海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差最小,分别是0.56m和26.71%.UCSB海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差次之.3个均一滑动场模型中USGSCMT海啸源模拟精度最高.相对于深海、浅海观测站,有限断层模型比均一滑动场模型对近岸观测站计算精度更高.海啸源误差具有显著的方向性,可能与反演所采用的波形数据的代表性有关;谱分析结果表明Fujii海啸源对在12至60min主频波谱的模拟要优于UCSB海啸源.海啸源中很难真实反映海底地震破裂过程,然而通过联合反演海啸波形数据推算海啸源的方法可以快速确定海啸源,并且最大限度的降低地震破裂过程与海啸产生的不确定性带来的误差. 相似文献
19.
Significant wave height(SWH) can be computed from the returning waveform of radar altimeter, this parameter is only raw estimates if it does not calibrate. But accurate calibration is important for all applications, especially for climate studies. HY-2a altimeter has been operational since April 2012 and its products are available to the scientific community. In this work, SWH data from HY-2A altimeters are calibrated against in situ buoy data from the National Data Buoy Center(NDBC), Distinguished from previous calibration studies which generally regarded buoy data as "truth", the work of calibration for HY-2A altimeter wave data against in situ buoys was applied a more sophisticated statistical technique—the total least squares(TLS) method which can take into account errors in both variables. We present calibration results for HY-2A radar altimeter measurement of wave height against NDBC buoys. In addition, cross-calibration for HY-2A and Jason-2 wave data are talked over and the result is given. 相似文献
20.