Military Geographies     

《The Professional geographer》2005,57(3):475-477

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Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   

成熟勘探矿集区新一轮找矿：勘查战略创新及铜陵矿集区找矿实例   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

刘亮明吕俊武  彭省临王国平方维萱  邵拥军 《地质论评》2005,51(3):325-333

成熟勘探的矿集区非常有必要开展新一轮的找矿，但矿床模式的局限和大埋藏深度等困难制约了这些地区的预测性找矿发现。促进其预测性找矿发现的关键战略包括：勘查模型的创新、勘查技术的创新和各种信息的综合集成预测。勘查模型的创新必须包含基于地球动力学剖析的新成矿概念，动力学数值模拟是有效的创新手段之一；勘查技术创新的主要目的是加大探测深度和提高探测与解释的准确性，必须以详细可靠的地质资料为基础；综合信息集成是利用GIS和知识驱动及数据驱动的方法充分提取各种数据中的有用信息，集成为更加可靠的预测图。在这种思想的指导下，我们在铜陵凤凰山矿田进行了预测和勘查，并成功地发现了深部的隐伏矿床。  相似文献   

Anisotropic damage of rock joints during cyclic loading: constitutive framework and numerical integration     

Joshua A. White 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(10):1036-1057

This work describes a constitutive framework for modeling the behavior of rough joints under cyclic loading. Particular attention is paid to the intrinsic links between dilatancy, surface degradation, and mobilized shear strength. The framework also accounts for the important effect of shear‐induced anisotropy. The resulting approach is fully three‐dimensional and is not restricted to plane‐displacement kinematics. Both the governing formulation and an algorithm for implicit numerical integration are presented. While the proposed methods are general, we also postulate a specific model that is compared with experimental data. It employs relatively few free parameters but shows good agreement with laboratory tests. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

1∶10000图库一体化数据的质量控制     

常线 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(6):190-192

根据1∶10 000图库一体化数据成果,对图库一体化数据生产过程中各个环节的质量控制进行探讨,提出了一体化数据的质量控制方法。  相似文献   

The behavior of a multilayered porous thermo-elastic medium with anisotropic thermal diffusivity and permeability     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2016

With the aid of integral transform techniques, this paper presents an extended precise integration solution for thermal consolidation problems of a multilayered porous thermo-elastic medium with anisotropic thermal diffusivity and permeability due to a heat source. From the fundamental governing equations, ordinary differential equations are derived by employing Laplace–Hankel transforms. By applying the extended precise integration method, equations in the transformed domain can be solved, and the actual solutions are further obtained by adopting a numerical inverse transformation. The accuracy and feasibility of the proposed theory is demonstrated by contrastive analysis with existing studies. Finally, several examples are carried out to investigate the influence of heat source’s type, axial distance, burial depth of heat source, ratio of thermo-permeability, permeability anisotropy, thermal diffusivity anisotropy and stratification on the thermal consolidation process.  相似文献   

遥感数据融合的进展与前瞻   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张良培  沈焕锋 《遥感学报》2016,20(5):1050-1061

数据融合是提升遥感影像应用能力的重要手段,一直是遥感信息处理与应用领域的研究热点。本文系统综述了遥感数据融合的进展与前瞻:首先对数据融合的层次与分类进行了总结和归纳,将遥感数据融合划分为同质遥感数据融合、异质遥感数据融合、遥感—站点数据融合、遥感—非观测数据融合4大类;在此基础上,重点针对时—空—谱光学遥感数据的融合,从多视超分辨率融合、多尺度融合、空—谱融合、时—空融合、时—空—谱一体化融合等方面进行了详细阐述;最后总结了遥感数据融合的前瞻研究方向,包括时—空—谱一体化融合的拓展、空天地观测数据的跨尺度融合、传感网环境下的在线融合、面向应用的融合方法等。  相似文献   

多源数据协同定量遥感产品生产系统的领域模型     

张正  唐娉  李宏益  冯峥 《遥感学报》2016,20(2):184-196

大数据技术中的一个难点是如何统筹多源异构的数据。在多源数据协同定量遥感产品生产系统中,不同传感器数据的协同使用为生产系统的各个环节都带来了许多的问题,例如异构数据文件的统一表示和调度,繁杂生产流程的统一抽象等。领域驱动设计是一种应对软件核心复杂性的设计方式。领域驱动是指在设计过程中经过不断的迭代,逐渐提炼出一套灵活优雅的领域模型。领域模型专注于分析问题领域本身,发掘重要的业务领域概念,并建立业务领域概念之间的关系。本文在不断实践的基础上提出了一组较成熟的领域模型,该模型用一种统一的方式解决了多源数据协同生产系统中各方面的问题,并显著地降低了系统集成的难度和工作量,且为新数据源的加入预留了灵活性。  相似文献   

An Innovative Bias-Correction Approach to CMA-GD Hourly QuantitativePrecipitation Forecasts     

刘金卿  戴光丰  欧小锋 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):428-436

This paper proposes a simple and powerful optimal integration (OPI) method for improving hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs, 0-24 h) of a single-model by integrating the benefits of different bias- corrected methods using the high-resolution CMA-GD model from the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Three techniques are used to generate multi-method calibrated members for OPI: deep neural network (DNN), frequency-matching (FM), and optimal threat score (OTS). The results are as follows: (1) The QPF using DNN follows the basic physical patterns of CMA-GD. Despite providing superior improvements for clear-rainy and weak precipitation, DNN cannot improve the predictions for severe precipitation, while OTS can significantly strengthen these predictions. As a result, DNN and OTS are the optimal members to be incorporated into OPI. (2) Our new approach achieves state-of-the-art performances on a single model for all magnitudes of precipitation. Compared with the CMA-GD, OPI improves the TS by 2.5%, 5.4%, 7.8%, 8.3%, and 6.1% for QPFs from clear-rainy to rainstorms in the verification dataset. Moreover, OPI shows good stability in the test dataset. (3) It is also noted that the rainstorm pattern of OPI relies heavily on the original model and that OPI cannot correct for deviations in the location of severe precipitation. Therefore, improvements in predicting severe precipitation using this method should be further realized by improving the numerical model’s forecasting capability.  相似文献   

Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch     

Hong Lu  Qionghui Li  Ryan Wiser  Kevin Porter 《Climate Policy》2019,19(5):623-635

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

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