末次冰期东亚区域气候变化的情景和机制研究   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

钱云  钱永甫  张耀存 《大气科学》1998,22(3):283-293

用一嵌套在全球大气环流模式中的区域气候模式,通过数值试验和对内外因作用的机制分析,探讨了以末次冰期为背景的大尺度强迫引起的大气环流和区域内下垫面条件异常等中尺度强迫影响区域气候变化的过程和机制。大尺度强迫和区域内局地的中尺度强迫通过不同的热力和动力学过程影响大气运动状况和区域气候的变化。末次冰期大尺度强迫引起的全球大气环流背景的变化是形成冰期和现代区域气候差异的主要原因。  相似文献   

硫酸盐气溶胶直接辐射效应在线与离线模拟方法的比较   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

吴涧  蒋维楣  刘红年  王卫国  罗燕 《气象学报》2004,62(4):486-492

利用区域气候模式RegCM 2与大气化学模式连接的模拟系统 ,比较了硫酸盐气溶胶辐射强迫的在线、离线模拟方法的硫酸盐柱含量、大气顶直接辐射强迫及地表温度响应。发现 :在线与离线模拟方法得到的硫酸盐柱含量、有无反馈大气顶直接辐射强迫和地表温度响应在许多地区有很大差异 ,这种差异在较小区域平均的尺度上更显著 ,在全区域平均尺度上也较为明显 ,是不能被忽略的 ;结果显示从硫酸盐含量到辐射强迫和地表温度响应逐渐加大的差异 ,说明硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫与模拟方法有关 ,显示出较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

季风梅雨带水汽输送与动力强迫源结构   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

苗秋菊徐祥德  王金星 《气象科技》2004,32(5):311-315

对长江流域季风梅雨水汽输送特征、长江流域夏季旱涝过程与强信号强迫源(青藏高原与低纬海洋)遥相关动力结构以及季风梅雨过程水汽输送源汇结构等有关研究成果及观点进行综述，给出季风梅雨水汽输送流型与强迫源遥相关物理图像，即由青藏高原动力强迫效应形成的低纬海洋-高原-长江流域远距离水汽输送流型，以及海洋强信号区(南海、西太平洋暖池、赤道东太平洋等区域)热力异常构成长江流域梅雨期洪涝、暴雨等灾害性气候异常特征。研究结果揭示了长江流域洪涝及其暴雨形成过程二维Rossby波列或低频波传播能量的动力机制。  相似文献   

The attenuation of tidal and subtidal oscillations in the Patos Lagoon estuary     

E. H. L. Fernandes  I. Mariño-Tapia  K. R. Dyer  O. O. Möller 《Ocean Dynamics》2004,54(3-4):348-359

The single, long and narrow channel that usually connects choked coastal lagoons to the ocean can serve as a natural hydraulic low-pass filter that reduces or eliminates tidal and subtidal effects inside the lagoon. This study proposes an alternative method of estimating the attenuation of the tidal and subtidal oscillations throughout the Patos Lagoon estuary. The attenuation is estimated for conditions of contrasting river runoff and weather (summer and winter). A high-pass/low-pass filter (fast fourier transformation technique – FFT) is applied to time series of sea-surface elevation (SSE) measured at the mouth of the Patos Lagoon. The resulting high-frequency (tidal) and low-frequency (subtidal) signals are used in independent simulations to force the TELEMAC-2D model. Attenuation of the tidal and subtidal signals throughout the estuary is estimated by applying cross-spectral analysis between the model-generated SSE time series at different locations throughout the estuary and the filtered SSE time series measured at the mouth. Results from the proposed method suggest that: (1) the low-frequency (subtidal) oscillations are less attenuated and propagate further than the high-frequency (tidal) oscillations in the Patos Lagoon estuary; (2) the filtering capability of the Patos Lagoon estuary is expected to follow a seasonal pattern, although further investigations on an interannual time scale are recommended in order to confirm this hypothesis; (3) the influence of the oceanic boundary processes on the SSE dynamics of the lagoon is restricted to the lower estuary. Further inland, the local forcing generated by the wind and freshwater input is likely to be the main forcing effect controlling the dynamics of the system. The proposed method proved to be an efficient and alternative way of estimating the attenuation of energy in the tidal and subtidal bands throughout the access channel of a choked coastal lagoon located in an area of reduced tidal influence.Responsible Editor: Iris Grabemann  相似文献   

中国地区云对地-气系统辐射强迫温度效应的气候研究   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4  

刘艳  翁笃鸣 《气象学报》2002,60(6):766-773

文中利用地球辐射平衡试验 (ERBE)和国际卫星云气候计划 (ISCCP)提供的地 气系统行星反射率、射出长波辐射 (OLR)和云量资料 ,计算了中国地区年、月平均总云量对地 气系统短波辐射、长波辐射以及净辐射强迫的温度效应和敏感性系数 ,并讨论了云对各辐射分量强迫的温度效应与总云量的关系。结果表明 :地 气系统云辐射强迫温度效应与总云量间具有较明显的曲线相关。云辐射强迫温度效应及其敏感性系数具有明显的时空变化特点。就中国全国平均而言 ,各月地 气系统云辐射强迫净温度效应一般表现为降温作用。  相似文献   

论大气二氧化碳温室效应的饱和度   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘玉芝  肖稳安  石广玉 《地球科学进展》2002,17(5):653-658

利用最新版本的大气分子吸收光谱资料HITRAN2000，用精确的逐线积分算法，计算了大气CO₂浓度变化后产生的辐射强迫。在此基础上，研究了CO₂温室效应的饱和度以及影响CO₂辐射强迫的各种因子。主要结论如下：地面温度愈高，一般辐射强迫也愈大，但辐射强迫并不完全取决于地面温度，它还受大气温度廓线的强烈影响；研究的 6种模式大气中，吸收带重叠对热带大气的CO₂辐射强迫影响最大，对亚极冬季大气的影响最小；与长波辐射强迫相比，短波辐射强迫的贡献很小；CO₂的温室效应在15μm带中心等波段确实已经达到饱和，但在其它（15μm带两翼，10μm，5.2μm带等）波段远未达到饱和，在最近的将来也不会达到饱和。  相似文献   

过去2 000年中国东南地区气温与降水的集成重建与分析     

温飞  游爱华  薛积彬 《热带地理》2021,41(4):778-789

筛选和利用中国东南地区（大致范围为105o E以东、30o N以南）16个站点的多种气候代用指标序列,重建了东南地区过去2 000年以来的气温与降水变化过程,并探讨了其可能的影响机制。研究发现,东南地区气温集成序列与其他学者重建的中国温度序列、北半球温度序列等均具有较好的可比性,一些百年尺度的典型特征气候时期,如黑暗时代冷期、中世纪暖期、近代小冰期以及20世纪现代暖期等均有显著的体现;降水集成序列显示东南地区在过去2 000年中干湿阶段性变化较为明显,特别是在中世纪暖期时降水整体上较为偏多,而在小冰期的前半段降水偏少、后半段降水偏多。总体来看,近2 000年来我国东南地区的气温与降水变化经历了较为多样的水热组合过程。值得指出地是,东南地区降水集成序列与已有的中国北方地区多条降水重建序列相互间可比性较弱,反映了中国东部季风区由南到北降水变化及其影响机制具有很大的区域性差异。分析认为,大尺度海—气相互作用、火山活动以及太阳辐射量变化等对我国东南地区过去2 000年的气候环境变化具有显著影响。  相似文献   

Two decadally resolved records from north‐west European peat bogs show rapid climate changes associated with solar variability during the mid–late Holocene     

Dmitri Mauquoy  Dan Yeloff  Bas Van Geel  Dan J. Charman  Antony Blundell 《第四纪科学杂志》2008,23(8):745-763

Two ¹⁴C accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) wiggle‐match dated peat sequences from Denmark and northern England record changes in mire surface wetness reconstructed using plant macrofossil and testate amoebae analyses. A number of significant mid–late Holocene climatic deteriorations (wet shifts) associated with declines in solar activity were recorded (at ca. 2150 cal. yr BC, 740 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 930, cal. yr AD 1020, cal. yr AD 1280–1300, cal. yr AD 1640 and cal. yr AD 1790–1830). The wet shifts identified from ca. cal. yr AD 930 are concurrent with or lag decreases in solar activity by 10–50 years. These changes are replicated by previous records from these and other sites in the region and the new records provide improved precision for the ages of these changes. The rapidly accumulating (up to 2–3 yr cm^?1, ～1310 yr old, 34 ¹⁴C dates) Danish profile offers an unprecedented high‐resolution record of climate change from a peat bog, and has effectively recorded a number of significant but short‐lived climate change events since ca. cal. yr AD 690. The longer time intervals between samples and the greater length of time resolved by each sample in the British site due to slower peat accumulation rates (up to 11 yr cm^?1, ～5250 yr old, 42 ¹⁴C dates) acted as a natural smoothing filter preventing the clear registration of some of the rapid climate change events. Not all the significant rises in water table registered in the peat bog archives of the British and Danish sites have been caused by solar forcing, and may be the result of other processes such as changes in other external forcing factors, the internal variability of the climate system or raised bog ecosystem. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

不同辐射强迫对暖干复合事件强度长期趋势信号检测的影响          下载免费PDF全文

潘容筠  李伟  江志红 《气象科学》2023,43(4):451-459

本文基于Copula联合概率建立表征暖干复合事件强度的指数,基于单个辐射强迫的地球系统模式大样本模拟试验的结果,使用4种场显著性检验的方法分析了不同辐射强迫下中国区域整体暖干事件强度长期趋势信号的可检测性。结果表明,4种方法得到的结论较为一致,均表明全强迫(自然外强迫和人为外强迫)下中国大部分区域复合事件的强度显著增强,不同集合成员之间的趋势较为一致,表明长期趋势主要受外强迫而非气候系统内部变率影响,其长期趋势的外强迫信号大约出现在2005年。在单个温室气体强迫的模拟试验下,复合事件强度的长期趋势更为明显,主要体现在强度更强并且长期趋势中外强迫信号出现的时间更早(约2000年)。但是在单个气溶胶强迫下,尚检测不到暖干事件强度长期趋势的外强迫信号。进一步分析表明,温度变化是暖干事件强度长期趋势变化的主要贡献因素。温室气体强迫下温度的贡献更大,尤其是在我国西部地区。  相似文献   

Assessing tectonic and climatic causal mechanisms in foreland‐basin stratal architecture: insights from the Alborz Mountains,northern Iran          下载免费PDF全文

Paolo Ballato  Manfred R. Strecker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(1):110-125

The southern foreland basin of the Alborz Mountains of northern Iran is characterized by an approximately 7.3‐km‐thick sequence of Miocene sedimentary rocks, constituting three basin‐wde coarsening‐upward units spanning a period of 10⁶ years. We assess available magnetostratigraphy, paleoclimatic reconstructions, stratal architecture, records of depositional environments, and sediment‐provenance data to characterize the relationships between tectonically‐generated accommodation space (A) and sediment supply (S). Our analysis allows an inversion of the stratigraphy for particular forcing mechanisms, documenting causal relationships, and providing a basis to decipher the relative contributions of tectonics and climate (inferred changes in precipitation) in controlling sediment supply to the foreland basin. Specifically, A/S > 1, typical of each basal unit (17.5–16.0, 13.8–13.1 and 10.3–9.6 Ma), is associated with sharp facies retrogradation and reflects substantial tectonic subsidence. Within these time intervals, arid climatic conditions, changes in sediment provenance, and accelerated exhumation in the orogen suggest that sediment supply was most likely driven by high uplift rates. Conversely, A/S < 1 (13.8 and 13.8–11 Ma, units 1, and 2) reflects facies progradation during a sharp decline in tectonic subsidence caused by localized intra‐basinal uplift. During these time intervals, climate continued to be arid and exhumation active, suggesting that sediment supply was again controlled by tectonics. A/S < 1, at 11–10.3 Ma and 9‐6–7.6 Ma (and possibly 6.2; top of units 2 and 3), is also associated with two episodes of extensive progradation, but during wetter phases. The first episode appears to have been linked to a pulse in sediment supply driven by an increase in precipitation. The second episode reflects a balance between a climatically‐induced increase in sediment supply and a reduction of subsidence through the incorporation of the proximal foreland into the orogenic wedge. This in turn caused an expansion of the catchment and a consequent further increase in sediment supply. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献