Uncertain seas: probabilistic modeling of future coastal flood zones     

Christopher J. Amante 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11):2188-2217

ABSTRACT

Future sea-level rise will likely expand the inland extent of storm surge inundation and, in turn, increase the vulnerability of the people, properties and economies of coastal communities. Modeling future storm surge inundation enhanced by sea-level rise uses numerous data sources with inherent uncertainties. There is uncertainty in (1) hydrodynamic storm surge models, (2) future sea-level rise projections, and (3) topographic digital elevation models representing the height of the coastal land surface. This study implemented a Monte Carlo approach to incorporate the uncertainties of these data sources and model the future 1% flood zone extent in the Tottenville neighborhood of New York City (NYC) in a probabilistic, geographical information science (GIS) framework. Generated spatiotemporal statistical products indicate a range of possible future flood zone extents that results from the uncertainties of the data sources and from the terrain itself. Small changes in the modeled land and water heights within the estimated uncertainties of the data sources results in larger uncertainty in the future flood zone extent in low-lying areas with smaller terrain slope. An interactive web map, UncertainSeas.com, visualizes these statistical products and can inform coastal management policies to reduce the vulnerability of Tottenville, NYC to future coastal inundation.  相似文献   

Interpreting nested storm event suspended sediment-discharge hysteresis relationships at large catchment scales     

Simon S. Vale  John R. Dymond 《水文研究》2020,34(2):420-440

Reducing soil erosion and sediment delivery into rivers is a major aim for land management in New Zealand. Therefore, it is important to identify areas of sediment generation and their relationship to in-stream suspended sediment concentrations and water quality attributes. It is possible to infer and assess sediment sources and dynamics using storm event suspended sediment concentration-discharge hysteresis shape and loop direction. Research in small catchments has achieved some success; however, research in larger (>10³ km²) catchments has shown the inherent difficulty of interpreting hysteresis patterns at larger scales. In this paper, we use a nested, long-term suspended sediment monitoring program across a large catchment (3,903 km²: Manawatū in New Zealand) to address these challenges. We evaluate the hysteresis patterns of five major tributaries (subcatchment areas 329–1,298 km²) of the Manawatū River together with the hysteresis patterns at the gauged catchment outlet. Hysteresis patterns of the Manawatū subcatchments can be characterized as predominantly clockwise, that is, high hysteresis index (HI) value. Larger storms (discharge >2 × 10⁷ m³) increase the likelihood of clockwise hysteresis directions, whereas smaller storms (discharge <2 × 10⁷ m³) are more likely to be anticlockwise. The link between suspended sediment concentration-discharge hysteresis and subcatchment sediment sources becomes increasingly attenuated within the larger subcatchments. High antecedent discharge negatively correlates to HI values, suggesting conditions immediately before the storm have an influence on whether the catchment is “primed” or “exhausted” with available sediment. The different storm categories indicate that within this catchment, whereas hysteresis patterns vary due to the spatial origin of discharge and sediment to some extent, storm magnitude has a stronger impact on hysteresis dynamics than spatial origin.  相似文献   

Spectral behavior of Persian oak under compound stress of water deficit and dust storm     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Persian oak (Quercus Brantii Lindl.) which is the most widely distributed tree in the Zagros Mountain forests is affected by western dust storms, mostly originating in Iraq, and harsh water stress as well. The objective of this research is to analyze the spectral behavior of Persian oak under water and dust stress scenarios, aiming to pave the way for modeling the stresses of drought and dust storms on oak trees using remote sensing images. Experiments were carried out on 54 two-year old oak tree seedlings, using a portable wind tunnel in greenhouse conditions. Water stress was induced on seedlings by means of changes in irrigation practices, i.e. well-watered (100 % field capacity), medium water deficit condition (40 % field capacity), and severe water deficit condition (20 % field capacity) treatments. Dust stress is also investigated by using three different dust particle concentrations, i.e. 350, 750 and 1500 (μg/m³). The spectrometry experiments were carried out at leaf and canopy levels in dark room by Fieldspec-3-ASD spectrometer. Spectral analysis was conducted using four procedures: (i) narrow-band spectral indices analysis, (ii) geometric indicators extraction from absorption features, (iii) Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR), and SVM classifier. Results show that water stress could be modeled much better using PLSR statistic (R² = 0.87, RMSE = 0.12), narrow-band indices analysis (R²_cv = 0.75, RMSE_cv = 0.17), and continuum removal (R² = 0.71, RMSE = 0.20), respectively. For dust stress, PLSR (R² = 0.83, RMSE = 0.14) and narrow-band indices (R² _cv = 0.7, RMSE _cv = 0.30) showed the best results, respectively. SVM could successfully separate stressed and not-stressed samples and also the stress types at both leaf and canopy levels, but it could not distinguish the different levels of stresses.  相似文献   

雷州市沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估*     

张敏  罗军  胡金磊  曾学智 《热带海洋学报》2019,38(2):1-12

文章基于近岸海洋数值模式ADCIRC (a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters)和近海波浪数值模式SWAN (simulating waves nearshore), 建立雷州市高分辨率的风暴潮-海浪耦合漫滩数值模型, 并反演了对雷州市影响较为严重的1415号台风“海鸥”的风暴潮过程。经过对比分析得出, 波浪对雷州市沿海海域的风暴潮产生重要影响。然后以8007号台风路径为基础, 构造了7个不同等级共35组台风风暴潮案例, 计算分析出不同等级台风强度下雷州市风暴潮淹没范围及水深。900hPa等级下, 雷州市淹没面积达到463.2km²。文章还构造了60组可能最大风暴潮事件集, 计算得到雷州市可能最大台风风暴潮淹没范围及水深分布。在可能最大台风影响下, 大量海水将漫过海堤, 造成极其严重的淹没灾害, 雷州市总的淹没面积可达602.0km², 其中465.8km²的淹没面积达到了危险性等级 Ⅰ 级, 淹没水深大于3m。雷州市东岸的淹没灾害大于西岸。  相似文献   

Investigating hydrologic responses to spatio‐temporal characteristics of storms using a Dynamic Moving Storm generator     

Shang Gao  Zheng N. Fang 《水文研究》2019,33(21):2729-2744

A synthetic storm generator—Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS)—is developed in this study to represent spatio‐temporal variabilities of rainfall and storm movement in synthetic storms. Using an urban watershed as the testbed, the authors investigate the hydrologic responses to the DMS parameters and their interactions. In order to reveal the complex nature of rainfall–run‐off processes, previously simplified assumptions are relaxed in this study regarding (a) temporal variability of rainfall intensity and (b) time‐invariant flow velocity in channel routing. The results of this study demonstrate the significant contribution of storm moving velocity to the variation of peak discharge based on a global sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, a pairwise sensitivity analysis is conducted to elucidate not only the patterns in individual contributions from parameters to hydrologic responses but also their interactions with storm moving velocity. The intricacies of peak discharges resulting from sensitivity analyses are then dissected into independent hydrologic metrics, that is, run‐off volume and standard deviation of run‐off timings, for deeper insights. It is confirmed that peak discharge is increased when storms travel downstream along the main channel at the speed that corresponds to a temporal superposition of run‐off. Spatial concentration of catchment rainfall is found to be a critical linkage through which characteristics of moving storms affect peak discharges. In addition, altering peak timing of rainfall intensity in conjunction with storm movement results in varied storm core locations in the channel network, which further changes the flow attenuation effects from channel routing. For future directions, the DMS generator will be embedded in a stochastic modelling framework and applied in rainfall/flow frequency analysis.  相似文献   

柴达木盆地沙尘暴天气影响因素   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李璠  肖建设  祁栋林  李林 《中国沙漠》2019,39(2):144-150

以柴达木盆地9个地面气象站点1961-2016年的逐日观测资料，分析该地区沙尘暴发生频率与气象因子和地表因子的关系，对比沙尘暴发生日与未发生日的气象因子和地表因子的差异。结果表明：①柴达木盆地沙尘暴日数与风速、大风日数有显著正相关关系，是影响最大的气象因子；气温与沙尘暴日数存在正相关性，但各地区有差异；相对湿度和降水对沙尘暴日数有明显的抑制作用；日照时数与沙尘暴日数存在弱的正相关关系。②植被对沙尘暴有抑制作用，但对柴达木盆地北部沙尘暴日数的抑制作用不显著；冻土深度对沙尘暴的影响存在滞后效应，滞后时间为2-3月。③沙尘暴发生时日最低气温偏高，相对湿度偏大，降水偏多，风速明显偏大，日照时数偏小，气温（地温）差偏小；日照时数小是沙尘暴发生的必要不充分条件。  相似文献   

一种基于空间-拓扑结构相似性的复杂轨迹聚类算法     

孙勇  王会蒙  靳奉祥  杜云艳  季民  易嘉伟 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(11):1669-1678

复杂的面状空间实体如海洋涡旋、环流和降雨过程在运动过程中会产生更复杂的轨迹,即具有分支结构的复杂轨迹。为了挖掘这类复杂轨迹的运动模式特征,本文从复杂轨迹的拓扑结构和空间特征出发,创新性地提出复杂轨迹的空间-拓扑结构相似性度量算法（Spatial-Topological Similarity Measurement, STSM）,该算法是基于图同构算法VF2改进的。首先STSM算法将复杂轨迹用带有节点和边的图结构表达,并将空间信息融入图结构的节点属性中,通过匹配复杂轨迹之间所有最大公共子结构,找到匹配结构中节点之间一一对应的关系,利用加权的欧式距离计算复杂轨迹匹配结构中点对之间的空间距离。然后,基于STSM相似性算法进行层次聚类分析,旨在发现复杂轨迹之间相似的拓扑结构在空间上的聚集模式。最后,利用1993-2016年长时间序列的中国南海冷涡复杂轨迹验证方法的有效性,并对比分析复杂轨迹拓扑结构相似性算法CSM。结果表明：单纯用拓扑结构相似性算法CSM进行聚类分析,不能充分挖掘空间的聚集模式,因为不同空间位置也存在拓扑结构相似的轨迹。而本文提出的STSM算法将南海冷涡复杂轨迹分为5类,第一类分布在南海北部、第二类分布在南海中部、其他三类交错在南海南部。这种聚集模式在一定程度上反映了冷涡的生成和演化过程在南海北部、中部、南部的差异性,同时也表明了冷涡移动在南海南部存在更为复杂的异质性。因此,本文提出的方法可以有效地从复杂轨迹数据中发现其演化过程的潜在聚集模式,为认识这类复杂动态现象的时空演化特征提供了一种新的方法。  相似文献   

风沙活动强度的常用判断指标及其应用评述   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

李晋昌  苏志珠  胡光印 《中国沙漠》2010,30(4):788-795

风沙活动是风力作用下地表物质被吹蚀、搬运和再沉积的过程, 其强度主要决定于风力和下垫面状况两个因素。对风沙活动强度的判断在防沙和治沙研究中长期应用,近年来也成为全球变化研究中经常涉及到的指标之一,尤其是对气候变化和干旱化、沙漠化等研究。列举了国内外常见的18种风沙活动强度的判断指标,对各自的原理、应用方法和适用条件进行了详细的描述和分析,并认为沙漠化面积和湖泊沉积记录可能并不适合作为判断指标,并且各指标之间缺乏可比性,重新建立一种可适用于不同时空尺度的判断指标应是今后研究的重点,这将对反映风沙活动的演变历史、预测未来的发展趋势及指示中国黄土高原的形成环境均有极为重要的意义。  相似文献   

中国50a来沙尘暴变化特征   总被引：15，自引：11，他引：4  

王存忠  牛生杰  王兰宁 《中国沙漠》2010,30(4):933-939

基于"中国强沙尘暴序列及其支撑数据集",对中国50a(1958—2007年)来沙尘暴时间和区域变化进行分析,揭示了中国沙尘暴时间和区域变化特征。结果表明,中国沙尘暴站时变化总体呈明显振动减少趋势,经历了两次迅速减少、两次大幅震动和两次和缓减少6个时期,每个时期约为8a,1983—2007年平均值比1958—1982年平均值减少58.4%。沙尘暴的站次平均持续时间年际变化不大,季节变化相差1倍以上,频发日期有延迟趋势,后25a比前25a平均延迟了7d左右。沙尘暴的区域分布呈现两多、两少和两个中心的分布特征,时间变化特征区域表现差异大,新疆南部和内蒙古中西部两个频发中心春季的沙尘暴强度和范围呈相反顺序演变,新疆沙尘暴6月频发。在总体站时减少的情况下,浑善达克沙地西北部和柴达木盆地西北部地区却有增加趋势。沙尘暴终止的年份线向北推移明显,在90°E以东的地区北移,最为明显的华北地区北移大约5个纬度,其范围的缩小和频次的减少共同决定了总体站时减少。  相似文献   

2007年春季沙尘暴对辽宁中部城市群空气质量的影响   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

周德平  王扬锋  洪也  刘宁微 《中国沙漠》2010,30(4):976-982

根据大气降尘量和可吸入颗粒物PM10 、PM2.5、 PM1的观测资料,分析了2007年春季发生于我国北方的两次沙尘暴天气过程对辽宁中部城市群空气质量的影响。结果显示,沙尘天气使各城市大气降尘量与可吸入颗粒物PM10和PM2.5的质量浓度明显增高,空气质量明显下降。在3月31日和5月7日的两次沙尘暴过程中,城市群的大气降尘量比当月日平均值分别增加了1.5倍和2.5倍,各城市PM10的日均质量浓度比沙尘出现前一日分别增加了0.2～2.6倍和1.5～3.8倍。3月31日除铁岭和鞍山空气质量状况为良外,均达到轻微污染程度;5月7日鞍山达严重污染程度;沈阳、辽阳、本溪、铁岭和抚顺的空气质量均为中度污染或中度重污染。沙尘暴期间1.0～10.0 μm的粗粒子为影响辽宁中部城市空气质量的主要成分,其小时平均质量浓度最大时是沙尘出现前的10～30倍。  相似文献