Preliminary Studies on Predicting the Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature through Combined Statistical Methods and Dynamic ENSO Prediction          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Li-Wei  ZHENG Fei  ZHU Jiang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(1):52-59

The sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean affects the regional climate over the Asian continent mostly through a modulation of the monsoon system.It is still difficult to provide an a priori indication of the seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean.It is widely recognized that the warm and cold events of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly linked to those of the equatorial eastern Pacific.In this study,a statistical prediction model has been developed to predict the monthly SST over the tropical Indian Ocean.This model is a linear regression model based on the lag relationship between the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Ni o3.4(5°S-5°N,170°W-120°W) SST Index.The predictor(i.e.,Ni o3.4 SST Index) has been operationally predicted by a large size ensemble El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forecast system with coupled data assimilation(Leefs_CDA),which achieves a high predictive skill of up to a 24-month lead time for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST.As a result,the prediction skill of the present statistical model over the tropical Indian Ocean is better than that of persistence prediction for January 1982 through December 2009.  相似文献   

Simulation and Projection of Changes in Rainy Season Precipitation over China Using the WRF Model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

WANG Shuzhou  YU Entao 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2013,27(4):577-584

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-2000, and to investigate potential future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981-2000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981-2000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041-2060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century.  相似文献   

低层偏南气流对一次暴雨过程的动力作用分析和数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

肖递祥  肖丹  周长春  周春花  谌贵珣 《气象》2013,39(3):281-290

利用常规观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2010年7月22-25日四川盆地西部出现的一次暴雨过程进行了诊断分析.结果表明:暴雨出现在对流层低层南海至四川盆地一直维持偏南气流的环流背景下,暴雨与这支偏南气流的风速演变密切相关,降雨强度随南风气流的增强而增强,南风气流增强所形成的风速辐合及正涡度平流是暴雨的主要动力触发因子,暴雨与低层辐合和正涡度平流区域有很好的对应关系.WRF数值模拟试验进一步表明:850 hPa层3h风速演变对中尺度对流系统的发展具有很好的指示意义,在3h风速增大区域的下风方,未来3h对流云团将迅速发展;盆地西部形成的气流辐合与其西侧的高原地形密切相关.  相似文献   

CINRAD/SA雷达灯丝电源调试与故障判定     

舒毅  舒童  杨苏勤  李欣  张福贵 《气象科技》2013,41(4):620-625

详细叙述了CINRAD/SA雷达灯丝电源控制电路的工作状态,分析了控制电路中脉宽调制器SG1525A的特性,调试了控制斩波器的脉宽调制电路和振荡器控制电路的关键测试波形,并对灯丝电源输出电压、灯丝电压保护和灯丝电流保护进行了分步调试.根据实际经验总结了在灯丝电源调试过程中出现的故障判定流程和故障排查、排除方法,旨在为雷达灯丝电源的故障处理提供参考和借鉴.  相似文献   

Numerical simulations of the Hyades dynamics and the nature of the moving Hyades cluster     

Ya. O. Chumak  A. S. Rastorguev  S. J. Aarseth 《Astronomy Letters》2005,31(5):308-314

We present our numerical simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Hyades open cluster. The simulations were performed usinga modified NBODY6 algorithm that included tidal forces and a realistic orbit of the cluster in a gravitational field described by the Miyamoto-Nagai potential. Our goal was to study the nature of movingclu sters. We show that the stars that were earlier cluster members could be later identified within a sphere of 50 pc in diameter around the Sun. The number of such stars for the chosen initial mass and virial radius of the cluster does not exceed ten. The maximum space velocity of these stars relative to the core of the current cluster does not exceed 3 km s^?1. Our numerical simulations confirm the assumption that some of the moving clusters near the Sun could consist of stars that have escaped from open clusters in the course of their dynamical evolution.  相似文献   

Dynamical Evolution of Barred Galaxies     

E. Athanassoula 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2005,91(1-2):9-31

Angular momentum redistribution within barred galaxies drives their dynamical evolution. Angular momentum is emitted mainly by near-resonant material in the bar region and absorbed by resonant material mainly in the outer disc and in the halo. This exchange determines the strength of the bar, the decrease of its pattern speed, as well as its morphology. If the galaxy has also a gaseous component and/or a companion or satellite, then these also take part in the angular momentum exchange. During the evolution a bar structure forms in the inner parts of the halo as well. This bar is shorter and fatter than the disc bar and stays so all through the simulation, although its length grows considerably with time. Viewed edge-on, the bar in the disc component acquires a boxy or peanut shape. I describe the families of periodic orbits that explain such structures and review the observations showing that boxy/peanut ‘bulges’ are in fact just bars seen edge-on.  相似文献   

A numerical solution of the dynamical instability of a thin accretion torus     

Liu Ren-jie  Wang De-yu 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》1995,19(4):507-512

We consider the non-axisymmetric, dynamical instability of a thin accretion torus with a non-zero shift of corotation radius. By numerical method we evaluated the wave number dependence of the linear rate of growth of instability and the co-rotation shift. The rate of growth is only slightly affected by the non-zero co-rotation shift, while the dispersion relation in the case of a shift is the same as that of the linear KdV equation. This shows that the “planet-like” solution found in numerical simulations of thin tori is very probably analogous to the soliton solution of the KdV equation.  相似文献   

Assessing cause and effect of multiple stressors on marine systems     

Adams SM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(8-12):649-657

An operational framework is developed to serve as a guideline for investigating causal relationships between environmental stressors and effects on marine biota. Because of the complexity and variability of many marine systems, multiple lines of evidence are needed to understand relationships between stressors and effects on marine resources. Within this framework, a weight of evidence approach based on multiple lines of evidence are developed and applied in a sequential manner by (1) characterizing the study system which involves determining if target biota are impaired, assessment of food and habitat availability, and measuring contaminant levels in the environment, (2) assessing direct effects of contaminant exposure on target biota using biomarkers and assessing indirect effects of exposure using suites of bioindicators, and (3) applying standard causal criteria based on epidemiological principles and diagnostic health profiling techniques to assess potential causes. Use of multiple lines of evidence should also reduce the risk of false positives (Type I error or falsely concluding that there is a causal relationship when there is none) and false negatives (Type II error or falsely concluding there is not a causal relationship when there actually is). Understanding causal relationships and the mechanistic processes between environmental stressors and effects on biota is important in the effective management and restoration of impaired marine ecosystems.  相似文献   

The general solution of the HENON–HEILES problem     

K.?E.?PapadakisEmail author  C.?L.?Goudas  G.?A.?Katsiaris 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,295(3):375-396

The general solution of the Henon–Heiles system is approximated inside a domain of the (x, C) of initial conditions (C is the energy constant). The method applied is that described by Poincaré as ‘the only “crack” permitting penetration into the non-integrable problems’ and involves calculation of a dense set of families of periodic solutions that covers the solution space of the problem. In the case of the Henon–Heiles potential we calculated the families of periodic solutions that re-enter after 1–108 oscillations. The density of the set of such families is defined by a pre-assigned parameter ε (Poincaré parameter), which ascertains that at least one periodic solution is computed and available within a distance ε from any point of the domain (x, C) for which the approximate general solution computed. The approximate general solution presented here corresponds to ε = 0.07. The same solution is further improved by “zooming” into four square sub-domain of (x, C), i.e. by computing sufficient number of families that reduce the density parameter to ε = 0.003. Further zooming to reduce the density parameter, say to ε = 10⁻⁶, or even smaller, although easily performable in both areas occupied by stable as well as unstable solutions, was found unnecessary. The stability of all members of each and all families computed was calculated and presented in this paper for both the large solution domain and for the sub-domains. The correspondence between areas of the approximate general solution occupied by stable periodic solutions and Poincaré sections with well-aligned section points and also correspondence between areas occupied by unstable solutions and Poincaré sections with randomly scattered section points is shown by calculating such sections. All calculations were performed using the Runge-Kutta (R-K) 8th order direct integration method and the large output received, consisting of many thousands of families is saved as “Atlas of the General Solution of the Henon–Heiles Problem,” including their stability and is available at request. It is concluded that approximation of the general solution of this system is straightforward and that the chaotic character of its Poincaré sections imposes no limitations or difficulties.  相似文献   

三维社区建模与分析的共形几何代数方法     

罗文  袁林旺  胡勇  易琳  闾国年 《地理与地理信息科学》2012,28(3):20-23,53

利用共形几何代数的多维统一表达与分析优势,研究了集成多源数据的三维社区统一建模与分析方法。构建了基于多重向量存储结构的社区场景整体建模流程,实现了CityGML、DXF等多源数据的导入与集成,并设计了基于共形几何代数的对象运动表达与插值方法。以德国Waldbruecke村为例的验证结果显示,基于共形几何代数的三维社区建模可以较好地表达复杂社区对象,并可以有效支撑几何度量、动态对象跟踪、运动轨迹重建等功能实现。  相似文献