Statistical Downscaling of FGOALS-s2 Projected Precipitation in Eastern China          下载免费PDF全文

DAI Yi-Feng  LIU Yi-Min  JIN Ji-Ming 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):388-394

A statistical regression downscaling method was used to project future changes in precipitation over eastern China based on Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIPS） the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） scenarios simulated by the second spectral version of the Flexible Global Ocean- Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS-s2） model. Our val- idation results show that the downscaled time series agree well with the present observed precipitation in terms of both the annual mean and the seasonal cycle. The regres- sion models built from the historical data are then used to generate future projections. The results show that the en- hanced land-sea thermal contrast strengthens both the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific and the east Asian summer monsoon flow under both RCPs. However, the trend of precipitation in response to warming over the 21 st century are different across eastern Chi- na under different RCPs. The area to the north of 32°N is likely to experience an increase in annual mean precipitation, while for the area between 23°N and 32°N mean precipitation is projected to decrease slightly over this century under RCP8.5. The change difference between scenarios mainly exists in the middle and late century. The land-sea thermal contrast and the associated east Asian summer monsoon flow are stronger, such that precipitation increases more, at higher latitudes under RCP8.5 compared to under RCP4.5. For the region south of 32°N, rainfall is projected to increase slightly under RCP4.5 but decrease under RCP8.5 in the late century. At the high resolution of 5 km, our statistically downscaled results for projected precipitation can be used to force hydrological models to project hydrological processes, which will be of great benefit to regional water planning and management.  相似文献   

Application of a Coupled Land Surface-Hydrological Model to Flood Simulation in the Huaihe River Basin of China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

LI Min  LIN Zhao-Hui  YANG Chuan-Guo  SHAO Quan-Xi 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):493-498

A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin（HRB） was investigated using two different models： a coupled land surface hydrological model（CLHMS）, and a large-scale hydrological model（LSX-HMS）. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting.  相似文献   

2010—2011年东海藻华高发区水体层化对东海原甲藻(Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu)藻华的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

戴鑫烽  陆斗定  夏平  王红霞  何飘霞  李冬融 《海洋与湖沼》2014,45(2):217-224

本文通过2010年和2011年不同时空角度对东海原甲藻藻华进行调查,研究水体层化对藻华发生和发展的影响。结果显示,起初东海原甲藻在50m等深线附近的外海繁殖与聚集,然后随着台湾暖流与长江冲淡水的相互作用,东海区域水体层化现象加剧,其细胞丰度越来越大,直至藻华发生并持续推进到近岸。大部分东海原甲藻细胞位于层化水体上方,而且当水体层化现象明显时,藻华的发展最为迅速且呈大规模爆发状态。结果还显示当出现叶绿素高值层时,总是伴随出现温盐突变现象。本项研究不仅第一次从时间角度记录了东海原甲藻藻华的发展动态,而且还发现了东海水体层化现象为东海原甲藻藻华的发生和发展提供了多种环境因子条件,这为该藻华的监控和预测提供了重要的科学依据。  相似文献   

有孔虫初房特征变化在珠江三角洲晚全新世东亚夏季风降雨研究中的应用     

俞宙菲  李铁刚  南青云  张帅 《海洋与湖沼》2014,45(2):225-232

研究中国降雨格局变化对理解东亚夏季风演化意义重大。本文分析了珠江三角洲柱状样ZJK03-Z中浅水底栖有孔虫常见种Rotalidium annectens的平均初房大小、微球型/显球型比值和壳体δ18O值,以及底栖有孔虫组合中瓷质壳的百分含量,探讨它们对由夏季风降雨引起的河口水体盐度变化的响应,得到了珠江三角洲3114—1260a BP季风降雨的强度变化,识别出了这期间14次季风降雨减少的偏干期。与南美洲Cariaco海盆的钛含量记录对比,二者一致的结果表明,珠江三角洲晚全新世的东亚夏季风降雨与热带辐合带(ITCZ)的南北移动密切相关:夏季风降雨减少,对应于ITCZ纬度位置的南移。  相似文献   

颗粒态有机物在长江口及其邻近海域的夏季分布和影响因素初析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

邵锡斌  吴莹  胡俊  鲍红艳 《海洋与湖沼》2014,45(6):1288-1294

利用气相色谱法对长江口及其邻近海域的表层颗粒态木质素(p-lignin)进行测定和分析,结合粒度、有机碳(OC%)、叶绿素a(Chl a)、碳稳定同位素(δ13C)等参数研究颗粒态有机物的夏季分布,并对其分布影响因素进行了初步分析。结果表明,悬浮颗粒物粒度组成以粘土和粉砂为主,平均粒径为7.9μm;OC%的值为0.57—7.41%,Chl a的值为0.35—3.71μg/L,δ13C的值为-25.7‰—–16.6‰,在口门外水华站位出现OC%、Chl a和δ13C的最大值,表明浮游生物的现场生产是主要贡献;紫丁香基酚类(S)、香草基酚类(V)和肉桂基酚类(C)8种木质素酚单体的含量Λ8(相对于总有机碳的含量)为0.0406—1.47mg/100mg OC;紫丁香基系列与香草基系列的质量比值(S/V)的分布范围较宽,为0.5—1.6之间,均值为0.8;肉桂基含量与香草基含量比值(C/V)的分布范围为0.02—0.2之间,均值为0.09;香草基酚类的酸醛比值[(Ad/Al)v]在0.24—2.30之间。盐度、总悬浮颗粒物(TSM)浓度是控制长江口内区与邻近海域颗粒态有机物来源与分布差异的重要控制因素,颗粒态木质素在向海输送过程中还会受到矿物组分、生物降解、浮游生物现场生产等各种因素的作用,使其组成成分和性质发生改变。木质素等参数表明最大浑浊带尽管对颗粒态有机物向海输送有改造作用,但是影响区域有限。  相似文献   

Distributional characteristics of grain sizes of surface sediments in the Zhujiang River Estuary   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

JIANG Siyi  XU Fangjian  LI Yan  LIU Xiling  ZHAO Yongfang  XU Wei 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(4):30-36

Distributions of the parameters of sedimentary grain sizes and their correlations were studied to trace the sources of silts and their movement trends in the Zhujiang River Estuary based on the analyses of grain sizes from more than 1080 sedimentary samples. The distributions of the median diameter, public value, quartile deviation, and skewness of sediments were complex in the Zhuiiang River Estuary mainly because of the impact of the matter source regions, distances from the source regions, and hydrodynamic conditions, such as waves, tidal currents, and coastal currents. Analyses of the parameters of the grain sizes for the various types of sediments showed that the distributions of the surface sediments in the Zhujiang River Estuary were controlled by many factors. Their matter sources were mainly the sediments discharged from the runoffs and ebb tidal currents, and from the open sea. The sediments mainly moved by suspension movement. The silts formed a large area of sediments with suspended fine silts in the Zhujiang River Estuary by internal adjustment transportation in the area, and moved toward the western coast of the Zhujiang River Estuary under the effect of Coriolis forces and coastal currents.  相似文献   

Sequence stratigraphic modelling and reservoir architecture of the shallow marine successions of Baram field,West Baram Delta,offshore Sarawak,East Malaysia     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2014

The Baram Delta Province is located in the northern part of Sarawak (West Baram Delta) and extends north-eastward into Brunei and further into the south-western part of Sabah (East Baram Delta). The delta is a Neogene basin which developed over an accretionary wedge implying Cretaceous to Eocene sediments during the Late Eocene to Late Miocene times (Tongkul, 1991; Hutchison et al., 2000; Morley et al., 2003; Sapin et al., 2011).Facies and well log analyses were carried out on core and well data for the Late Miocene successions of Baram field, a medium-sized oilfield located in the north-eastern flank of the Baram Delta Oil Province, offshore Sarawak. A numerical model of sea-level fluctuations and progradational basin-fill was generated using the Clastic Modeling Program (Hardy and Waltham, 1992a and 1992b; Waltham, 1992) software to evaluate the possible controls of sea-level changes in the development of the siliciclastic successions and their bounding surfaces. This model was based on four lines of evidence, namely core data, fieldwide wireline logs correlation, seismic sections and average thickness variations across the field.Cored intervals of the Upper Cycle V (Late Miocene) display reservoir successions dominated by thick swaley cross-stratified (SCS) sandstones, thin hummocky cross-stratified sandstones and other shallow marine, wave and storm-dominated facies, interbedded with laminated shelfal mudstones. The vertical facies organisation suggests deposition during shoreface progradation associated with a fall of relative sea level.Analysis and correlation of well logs reveal stacking patterns comprising three scales of depositional cyclicity: the parasequences (∼10–∼30 m thick), the parasequence sets (∼45–∼130 m thick) and the major cycles (∼600–800 m thick).Field-wide, dip-oriented seismic sections show very well-developed horizontal to slightly upward convex layers traceable over great distances, which suggests a ramp-type margin, in which the basin floor dipped gradually seaward and lacked a distinct shelf-slope margin.The evidences gathered demonstrate that the deposition and build-up stratigraphy of the Late Miocene sedimentary successions could have been strongly controlled by superimposed short-term, medium-term and long-term sea-level changes.The simulated sea level and sedimentary basin-fill model, generated by the Clastic Modelling Program, match to the well log correlation. This model illustrates that high frequency sea-level fluctuations enable sands to be distributed over large areas within a shallow, low gradient shelf. Our study shows that integrated studies incorporating cores, well logs, seismic sections and simulated models can be employed as important tools for correlation and reservoir modelling.  相似文献   

Lacustrine basin unconventional resource plays: Key differences     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2014

There has been a revival in hydrocarbon source rock characterization and development associated with growing interest in unconventional resources, where these fine-grained organic-rich rocks act as both source and reservoir. To-date, the exploration focus on shale reservoirs has been largely on marine systems. Lacustrine source rocks for conventional resources are geographically important, dominating regions such as China, Indonesia, and Brazil's resource-base. However, they have been generally untested for unconventional resources.There are a number of key differences in the nature of these hydrocarbon systems that should be considered when assessing whether lacustrine systems may represent future unconventional opportunities in areas where the conventional resource-base is dominated by lacustrine-sourced oil. Among the key differences between these depositional systems is the greater sensitivity to high frequency climatic variability within lacustrine systems. Lacustrine systems are highly sensitive to changes in the balance between precipitation and evaporation, which may lead to rapid changes in lake level, potentially exceeding 600 m. These changes in depositional conditions are geologically rapid and may occur over periods of thousands of years. Such changes can reduce the areal extent of potentially thick source rock intervals to only those portions of a basin where a permanent deep lake was present. Thus the core unconventional target area may be geographically limited compared with their marine counterpart. Although potentially areally limited, a review of many lacustrine source rocks suggests that their thicknesses are often significantly greater than marine source rocks. An examination of the more distal portions of lacustrine systems, where better source rock potential is present reveals that there is generally limited connectivity between source and conventional reservoir. In these settings, such as the Wind River basin (Waltman Shale), the hydrocarbons remain trapped within the shales, potentially leading to over-pressured hydrocarbon charged systems. Such conditions suggest that although areally limited, viable unconventional targets may exist, if suitable reservoir conditions are present. Finally, the character of the oils produced is different in these settings, with lacustrine oils being waxy and displaying different hydrocarbon generation and cracking kinetics. High wax oils display distinct flow characteristics, being more viscous, and may offer different production challenges than their non-waxy marine equivalents. Additionally, differences in their cracking kinetics may indicate that the timing of gas generation for shale gas plays may differ significantly from marine systems.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional facies architecture analysis using sequence stratigraphy and seismic sedimentology: Example from the Paleogene Dongying Formation in the BZ3-1 block of the Bozhong Sag,Bohai Bay Basin,China     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2014

The Bohai Bay Basin is a classic non-marine rift basin in eastern China. The Paleogene Dongying sequences are the main hydrocarbon-bearing stratigraphic unit in the basin. Using three-dimensional (3-D) seismic data and one well control in the BZ3-1 Block in the western slope of the Bozhong Sag, we analyzed 3-D facies architectures of the Dongying sequences. The Dongying Formation, a second-order sequence, can be subdivided into four third-order sequences (from base to top: SQ1, SQ2, SQ3, and SQ4). The facies architecture was analyzed by using the seismic sedimentology approach based on 3-D seismic data. Sediment of the Dongying sequences was derived from the northern Shijiutuo Uplift via four major configurations of incised valleys, namely “V”, “U”, “W”, and composite shaped incised valleys. Seismic stratal slices reveal branching and converging characteristics of the channels from upstream to downstream. On the basis of an integrated analysis of well log, core data, seismic facies based on multi-seismic attributes, three sedimentary facies (e.g., “delta”, “fan-delta”, and “shore” or “shallow lacustrine” facies) have been recognized. The four types of incised valleys and their evolution control the sedimentary systems in the sedimentation area. The numbers and sizes of the fans are controlled by the sedimentary systems at various scales. Incised valley-fill and deltaic sand bodies are excellent hydrocarbon reservoirs and potentially good exploration targets for the study area. The reservoir quality of sequences SQ1, SQ2, and SQ3 become better gradually from base to top. The proposed sediment dispersal patterns may aid in the prediction of potential reservoir distribution. This study also demonstrates that facies architecture analysis using sequence stratigraphy and seismic sedimentology may serve as an effective approach for constructing 3D facies models for petroleum exploration in areas lacking of well or outcrop data.  相似文献   

Dispersal of the Zhujiang River (Pearl River) derived sediment in the Holocene   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

GE Qian  LIU J. P.  XUE Zuo  CHU Fengyou 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(8):1-9

High-resolution Chirp profiling and coring reveals an elongated(ca. 400 km) Holocene Zhujiang River(Pearl River)-derived mud area(maximum thickness 20 m) extending from the Zhujiang River Delta, southwestward off the Guangdong coast, to the Leizhou Peninsula. Two depo-centers, one proximal and one distal, are identified. On the continental shelf off the west Guangdong Province, the mud is deposited in water depth shallower than 50 m; while to the southeast of the Zhujiang River Estuary, the mud area can extend to the-120 m isobath. A combined analysis with the stratigraphic sequences of other muddy deposits in the Western Pacific marginal seas(mainly Changjiang(Yangtze) and Huanghe(Yellow) Rivers derived) indicates that the initiation of the Zhujiang River muddy deposit can be further divided into two stages: Stage 1 is before the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand(ca. 7.0 cal. ka BP), the proximal mud was mostly deposited after 9.0 cal. ka BP, when the sea-level rose slowly after the Meltwater Pulse-1C; Stage 2, after the mid-Holocene sealevel highstand, clinoform developed on the continental shelf off the west Guangdong Province, extending ca. 400 km from the Zhujiang River Estuary. The proximal clinoform thins offshore, from ca. 10 m thickness around 5–10 m water depth to less than 1–2 m around 20–30 m water depth. In addition, we also find a developed distal clinoform in the east of the Leizhou Peninsula.  相似文献