NWP模式中纬向平均环流系统误差的动力诊断     

张绍晴  刘还珠  吴国雄  杨云峰 《气象学报》1996,54(5):569-579

证明了模式在预报时段的纬向平均环流误差，是由于在预报时段内模式大气和真实大气中西风加速过程的不同造成的。又由于原始方程的无加速定理中各强迫因子具有良好的线性迭加性，因此能够清楚地将造成模式系统误差的动力因子分解开来。通过对Ｔ４２Ｌ９模式的分析，说明原始方程的无加速定理可以作为分析模式系统误差的良好手段。动力诊断分析结果表明，模式对纬向平均环流分布具有较好的预报能力，但在各缔带也存在明显的误差。通过无加速定理的分解分析，本文研究了这些误差的成因及改善模式的可能途径。  相似文献   

UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICATION OF SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS: A STUDY OF PREDICTION ERRORS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kiran Alapaty  Sethu Raman  Devdutta S. Niyogi 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,82(3):475-502

The effects of uncertainty in the specification of surface characteristics on simulated atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) processes and structure were investigated using a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-boundary layer model. Observational data from the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment were selected to quantify prediction errors in simulated boundary-layer parameters. Several numerical 12-hour simulations were performed to simulate the convective boundary-layer structure, starting at 0700 LT 6 June 1987.In the control simulation, measured surface parameters and atmospheric data were used to simulate observed boundary-layer processes. In the remaining simulations, five surface parameters – soil texture, initial soil moisture, minimum stomatal resistance, leaf area index, and vegetation cover – were varied systematically to study how uncertainty in the specification of these surface parameters affects simulated boundary-layer processes.The simulated uncertainty in the specification of these five surface parameters resulted in a wide range of errors in the prediction of turbulent fluxes, mean thermodynamic structure, and the depth of the ABL. Under certain conditions uncertainty in the specifications of soil texture and minimum stomatal resistance had the greatest influence on the boundary-layer structure. A lesser but still moderately strong effect on the simulated ABL resulted from (1) a small decrease (4%) in the observed initial soil moisture (although a large increase [40%] had only a marginal effect), and (2) a large reduction (66%) in the observed vegetation cover. High uncertainty in the specification of leaf area index had only a marginal impact on the simulated ABL. It was also found that the variations in these five surface parameters had a negligible effect on the simulated horizontal wind fields. On the other hand, these variations had a significant effect on the vertical distribution of turbulent heat fluxes, and on the predicted maximum boundary-layer depth, which varied from about 1400–2300 m across the 11 simulations. Thus, uncertainties in the specification of surface parameters can significantly affect the simulated boundary-layer structure in terms of meteorological and air quality model predictions.  相似文献   

判断观测值粗差能否发现和定位的一种验前方法   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

岑敏仪  卓健成  李志林  丁晓利 《测绘学报》2003,32(2):134-138

由于最小二乘(LS)残差统计相关，使得粗差发现和定位关系变得相当复杂，且至今未见有效的理论和方法。作者依据在LS平差前进行粗差发现和定位的思路，有意避开LS残差统计相关的难题，从条件平差模型推导出粗差判断方程(GEJE)Vr＝JVt Wc建立起以上式判断矩阵J为基础的粗差发现和定位的判断准则：1．不能发现含有粗差的观测量；2．能发现含有粗差但不能定位粗差的观测量。通过算例的检验，证明了判断矩阵J与控制网中观测量数据结构的对应关系，同时说明粗差不能定位的观测量，再好的粗差检测方法也无法正确定位粗差。  相似文献   

一类计算性系统误差消除与斜压原始方程天气气候模式改进   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zhong Qing  Chen Jiatian  Sun Zuoling 《大气科学进展》2002,19(6):1103-1112

斜压原始方程半隐式全能量守恒格式的构造问题长期没有解决。本研究在成功地构造实现其全能量完全守恒的半隐式方案基础上，进行了此守恒方案与欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的σ－坐标原始方程全球谱模式半隐式方案间的实际资料对比实验。实验表明，850hPa平均预报高度场RMS误差在积分一周以后得到明显改进，到第30天其预报误差降低达到了50％，进一步的对比实验表明，对流层中部和下部的月预报平均高度场RMS误差也显降低，而且一些明显的系统性误差也得到大幅度改进。更加详细的分析显示，这些收益的很大一部分是从超长波成分的改进中得到的。这说明，通过构造守恒性时间差分方案消除了响应的计算性系统误差源汇，进而能够使模式气候漂移得到显改进，而这种误差源汇存在于传统的，现仍被普遍采用的斜压原始方程天气气候模式中。  相似文献   

基于多参考站网络的VRS算法研究与实现     

ZHANG Feng  HAO Jin-ming  CHONG Dian-wei  LIANG Shuai 《测绘学院学报》2008,(6)

多参考站网络的建立,为网络RTK的实现奠定了基础。虚拟参考站技术是网络RTK的一种,它以众多的优势代表了网络RTK的主要发展趋势。简单介绍了VRS系统的工作原理;从基准站间双差改正数的生成、虚拟观测值的生成和流动站处的定位解算3个方面,详细推导了VRS的数学模型;针对差分改正信息,提出了综合误差内插算法;最后,利用4个已知点的观测数据,结合编程计算,证明了文中VRS数学模型的正确性,为虚拟参考站系统的进一步研究提供依据。  相似文献   

Directional errors in remanent magnetization of non-cubic soft sediment specimens measured with spinner magnetometers     

William K. Steele 《Geophysical Journal International》1989,96(2):333-341

Summary. This paper assesses theoretically and experimentally the errors in palaeomagnetic directions introduced by measuring rectangular but non-cubic blocks of soft sediments in slow speed spinner magnetometers. Plastic boxes commonly used for this purpose hold samples 21 × 21 × 15 mm. This study models the response of Schonstedt and Molspin spinners to such specimens and presents the results of experiments in which the remanent magnetization (RM) of obsidian blocks, both as cubes and after subsequent cutting to fit within the boxes, was measured to determine actual instrument behaviour. These experiments indicate that the error introduced by use of specimens of the above dimensions may be as much as 8.5° for the smallest specimen-sensor separation in the Schonstedt spinner. For the Molspin spinner and for the next smallest specimen-sensor separation in the Schonstedt instrument, the error is smaller but nevertheless non-negligible.  相似文献   

Contribution of ionospheric irregularities to the error of dual-frequency GNSS positioning     

B. C. Kim  M. V. Tinin 《Journal of Geodesy》2007,81(3):189-199

This paper investigates the third-order residual range error in the dual-frequency correction of ionospheric effects on satellite navigation. We solve the two-point trajectory problem using the perturbation method to derive second-approximation formulas for the phase path of the wave propagating through an inhomogeneous ionosphere. It is shown that these formulas are consistent with the results derived from applying perturbation theory directly to the eikonal equation. The resulting expression for the phase path is used in calculating the residual range error of dual-frequency global positioning system (GPS) observations, in view of second- and third-order terms. The third-order correction includes not only the quadratic correction of the refractive index but also the correction for ray bending in an inhomogeneous ionosphere. Our calculations took into consideration that the ionosphere has regular large-scale irregularities, as well as smaller-scale random irregularities. Numerical examples show that geomagnetic field effects, which constitute a second-order correction, typically exceed the effects of the quadratic correction and the regular ionospheric inhomogeneity. The contribution from random irregularities can compare with or exceed that made by the second-order correction. Therefore, random ionospheric irregularities can make a significant (sometimes dominant) contribution to the residual range error.  相似文献   

Temporal correlations of atmospheric mapping function errors in GPS estimation     

Borys Stoew  Tobias Nilsson  Gunnar Elgered  Per O. J. Jarlemark 《Journal of Geodesy》2007,81(5):311-323

  相似文献   

The impact of inhomogenous background errors on a global wave data assimilation system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Diana J. M. Greenslade  Ian R. Young 《Journal of Atmospheric & Ocean Science》2005,10(2):61-93

One of the main limitations in current wave data assimilation systems is the lack of an accurate representation of the structure of the background errors. In this work, models for the observational error variance, background error variance and background error correlations are developed based on the results of previous studies. These are tested in a global wave data assimilation system and the resulting wave forecasts are verified against independent observations from buoys. Forecasts of significant wave height show substantial improvement over the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's current operational wave forecasting system. However, forecasts of peak period are not similarly improved. The regional impacts of the new assimilation scheme are found to vary on a seasonal basis. Overall, it is shown that the inclusion of a latitudinally dependent background error, and improved specification of the background and observational error variances can reduce the root-mean-square error of 24-hour forecast Significant Wave Height by almost 10%.  相似文献   

测距仪周期误差及加常数的同时测定     

师郡 《测绘与空间地理信息》2000,23(2):38-39

文章提出的方法近似于平台法,但又有不同,不需要设置专用平台、检测可在室内进行,因此一般的测绘单位都可自己定期对测距仪进行检定,并且由于消除了外界因素的影响,使得检定结果更为可靠。  相似文献