Investigating the propagation mechanism of unmodelled systematic errors on coordinate time series estimated using least squares   总被引：6，自引：8，他引：6  

M. P. Stewart  N. T. Penna  D. D. Lichti 《Journal of Geodesy》2005,79(8):479-489

The propagation of unmodelled systematic errors into coordinate time series computed using least squares is investigated, to improve the understanding of unexplained signals and apparent noise in geodetic (especially GPS) coordinate time series. Such coordinate time series are invariably based on a functional model linearised using only zero and first-order terms of a (Taylor) series expansion about the approximate coordinates of the unknown point. The effect of such truncation errors is investigated through the derivation of a generalised systematic error model for the simple case of range observations from a single known reference point to a point which is assumed to be at rest by the least squares model but is in fact in motion. The systematic error function for a one pseudo-satellite two-dimensional case, designed to be as simple but as analogous to GPS positioning as possible, is quantified. It is shown that the combination of a moving reference point and unmodelled periodic displacement at the unknown point of interest, due to ocean tide loading, for example, results in an output coordinate time series containing many periodic terms when only zero and first-order expansion terms are used in the linearisation of the functional model. The amplitude, phase and period of these terms is dependent on the input amplitude, the locations of the unknown point and reference point, and the period of the reference point's motion. The dominant output signals that arise due to truncation errors match those found in coordinate time series obtained from both simulated data and real three-dimensional GPS data.  相似文献   

K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

翟宇梅赵瑞星  肖仁春王力维 《应用气象学报》2005,16(4):453-460

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。  相似文献   

显式自由表面模型时间分裂格式的一个积分方案   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Zhou Weidong 《大气科学进展》2002,19(2):255-265

讨论了有关显式自由表面模型的时间分裂格式中的分裂误差。在传统的积分方案中，由于采用蛙跳格式，斜压动量方程具有三层的时间离散结构，但是，正压动量方程在相应的时间层上只有二层的离散结构。因此，正压方程与斜压方程的时间离散结构是不相容的。分析结果表明，这是导致分裂误差的原因。本提出一种能保持时间离散结构相容的正压和斜压方程的时间积分方案。该积分方案的分裂误差很小因此特别适合于需要长期积分的气候研究。该方案在北太平洋的一个自由表面模型中得到了应用。  相似文献   

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK CORRECTION OF ROUGH ERRORS OF OBSERVATIONS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

蒋国荣  张韧  沙文钰  阎俊岳  姚华栋 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,(1)

In the context of tower measured radiation datasets.following the correction principle meetinga diagnostic equation in data quality control and in terms of a technique for model construction ondata and ANN(artificial neural network)retrieval for BP correction of radiation measurementswith rough errors available,a BP model is presented.Evidence suggests that the developed modelworks well and is superior to a convenient multivariate linear regression model,indicating its wideapplications.  相似文献   

Numerical Analysis of Space–Time Finite Element Formulations for Miscible Displacements     

Rigoberto G. Sanabria Castro  Sandra M. C. Malta  Abimael F. D. Loula  Luiz Landau 《Computational Geosciences》2002,5(4):301-330

A finite element formulation is proposed to approximate a nonlinear system of partial differential equations, composed by an elliptic subsystem for the pressure–velocity and a transport equation (convection–diffusion) for the concentration, which models the incompressible miscible displacement of one fluid by another in a rigid porous media. The pressure is approximated by the classical Galerkin method and the velocity is calculated by a post-processing technique. Then, the concentration is obtained by a Galerkin/least-squares space–time (GLS/ST) finite element method. A numerical analysis is developed for the concentration approximation. Then, stability, convergence and numerical results are presented confirming the a priori error estimates.  相似文献   

Method of Data Reduction and Uncertainty Estimation for Platinum-Group Element Data Using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James C. Ely  Clive R. Neal 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2002,26(1):31-39

A data reduction method is described for determining platinum-group element (PGE) abundances by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) using external calibration or the method of standard addition. Gravimetric measurement of volumes, the analysis of reference materials and the use of procedural blanks were all used to minimise systematic errors. Internal standards were used to correct for instrument drift. A linear least squares regression model was used to calculate concentrations from drift-corrected counts per second (cps). Furthermore, mathematical manipulations also contribute to the uncertainty estimates of a procedure. Typical uncertainty estimate calculations for ICP-MS data manipulations involve: (1) Carrying standard deviations from the raw cps through the data reduction or (2) calculating a standard deviation from multiple final concentration calculations. It is demonstrated that method 2 may underestimate the uncertainty estimate of the calculated data. Methods 1 and 2 do not typically include an uncertainty estimate component from a regression model. As such models contribute to the uncertainty estimates affecting the calculated data, an uncertainty estimate component from the regression must be included in any final error calculations. Confidence intervals are used to account for uncertainty estimates from the regression model. These confidence intervals are simpler to calculate than uncertainty estimates from method 1, for example. The data reduction and uncertainty estimation method described here addresses problems of reporting PGE data from an article in the literature and addresses both precision and accuracy. The method can be applied to any analytical technique where drift corrections or regression models are used.  相似文献   

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK CORRECTION OF ROUGH ERRORS OF OBSERVATIONS^*          下载免费PDF全文

JIANG Guorong  ZHANG Ren  SHA Wenyu  YAN Junyue  YAO Huadong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,16(1):123-132

In the context of tower measured radiation datasets.following the correction principle meeting a diagnostic equation in data quality control and in terms of a technique for model construction on data and ANN (artificial neural network) retrieval for BP correction of radiation measurements with rough errors available,a BP model is presented.Evidence suggests that the developed model works well and is superior to a convenient multivariate linear regression model,indicating its wide applications.  相似文献   

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example     

Chai Chizhang  Zhang Wenxiao  Liao Yuhu  Xu Wenjun  Shen Xuhui  Tian Qinjian  Wei Kaibo  Chen Zhengwei 《中国地震研究》2002,16(1):60-70

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.  相似文献   

Precise revision of the garnet-muscovite geothermometer     

吴春明  赵英俊 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2002,45(3):270-279

The garnet-muscovite geothermometer was refined through empirical calibration by using natural rocks metamorphosed under the physical conditions of 238—1306 MPa and 490—700℃. Input temperatures and pressures were determined through simultaneously applying the garnet-biotite geothermometer and the garnet-biotite-plagioclase-quartz barometer, assuming that all FeO in muscovite and garnet be ferrous. Garnet was treated as the asymmetric quaternary solid solution, and muscovite as the symmetric binary solid solution. Input muscovite compositions include Fe atoms between 0.03—0.19 and Mg atoms between 0.04—0.16 on the basis of 11 oxygen atoms, and input garnet compositions include spessartine fractions between 0.01—0.289, grossular fractions between 0.028—0.273, and the Fe/Mg ratio between 3.387-18.986. The resulting garnet-muscovite geothermometer reproduces temperatures within (50℃ compared with the garnet-biotite thermometer. Total random error of ±37℃ of the new thermometer may stem from the pressure uncertainty of ±200 MPa, and uncertainties of ±5% of Fe and Mg components in muscovite, and ±5% of Fe, Mg, Mn and Ca components in garnet, altogether. When there exist 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% Fe3+ in muscovite, respectively, the computed garnet-muscovite temperatures will be 1—6℃, 2—12℃, 3—16℃, 5—24℃ and 7—29℃, respectively, lower than those obtained when assuming that all FeO be ferrous. The new garnet-muscovite geothermometer can efficiently reflect temperature change of typical prograde sequences and contact aureole rocks, and may be applied to low- to high-grade and low- to high-pressure metamorphic rocks.  相似文献   

Data and model uncertainty estimation for linear inversion   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kasper van Wijk  John A. Scales  William Navidi  Luis Tenorio 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,149(3):625-632

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