On the Key Dynamical Processes Supporting the 21.7 Zhengzhou Record-breaking Hourly Rainfall in China     

Peng WEI  Xin XU  Ming XUE  Chenyue ZHANG  Yuan WANG  Kun ZHAO  Ang ZHOU  Shushi ZHANG  Kefeng ZHU 《大气科学进展》2023,40(3):337-349

An extremely heavy rainfall event occurred in Zhengzhou, China, on 20 July 2021 and produced an hourly rainfall rate of 201.9 mm, which broke the station record for mainland China. Based on radar observations and a convection-permitting simulation using the WRF-ARW model, this paper investigates the multiscale processes, especially those at the mesoscale,that support the extreme observed hourly rainfall. Results show that the extreme rainfall occurred in an environment characteristic of warm-sec...  相似文献   

The Concurrent Record-breaking Rainfall over Northwest India and North China in September 2021     

Ying NA  Riyu LU 《大气科学进展》2023,40(4):653-662

Extremely heavy rainfall occurred over both Northwest India and North China in September 2021. The precipitation anomalies were 4.1 and 6.2 times interannual standard deviation over the two regions, respectively, and broke the record since the observational data were available, i.e., 1901 for India and 1951 for China. In this month, the Asian uppertropospheric westerly jet was greatly displaced poleward over West Asia, and correspondingly, an anomalous cyclone appeared over India. The anomalous ...  相似文献   

Long-Term Trends in Pre-Summer Daytime and Nocturnal Extreme Hourly Rainfall in a Coastal City of South China     

苏琳  李俊鲁  黄伟健  冯志雄 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2023,29(1):39-54

The long-term trends in the occurrence frequency of pre-summer daytime and nocturnal extreme hourly rainfall(EXHR) during 1988-2018 in Hong Kong and their spatial distributions are examined and analyzed. Despite a significant increasing trend observed in the occurrence frequency of pre-summer EXHRs during the investigated period,the increase in daytime and nocturnal EXHRs show distinct spatial patterns. Nocturnal EXHRs show uniform increasing trends over the entire Hong Kong. However, the increa...  相似文献   

基于日SPEI的近55 a西南地区极端干旱事件时空演变特征   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

贾艳青  张勃 《地理科学》2018,38(3):474-483

利用1960~2014年中国西南地区141个气象台站的逐日气象资料,引入一个新的干旱指数——逐日标准化降水蒸散指数（日SPEI）,对极端干旱事件的年代际、年际、季节内变化及持续性特征进行了分析,结果表明：空间上,近55 a西南春季和年极端干旱程度呈一致的减弱趋势,重庆、四川与贵州的交界处及四川西北部极端干旱程度明显缓解,而夏、秋两季极端干旱表现出增强的趋势并有一定的区域性特征。时间上,春季和全年极端干旱频率、强度和持续天数逐渐减少,春季极端干旱的减弱程度较全年明显;夏、秋两季极端干旱频率、强度和持续天数呈增加趋势,夏季极端干旱的加重趋势比秋季明显。从极端干旱事件的持续性来看,20世纪60年代和21世纪初（2000~2014年）西南遭受的极端干旱最严重,持续期达60 d以上的站点分别占到站点总数的60%和73%。  相似文献   

Seismic risk of circum-Pacific earthquakes: II. Extreme values using Gumbel's third distribution and the relationship with strain energy release     

Paul W. Burton  Kostas C. Makropoulos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1985,123(6):849-869

In a previous paper (Makropoulos andBurton, 1983) the seismic risk of the circum-Pacific belt was examined using a whole process technique reduced to three representative parameters related to the physical release of strain energy, these are:M ₁, the annual modal magnitude determined using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship;M ₂, the magnitude equivalent to the total strain energy release rate per annum, andM ₃, the upper bound magnitude equivalent to the maximum strain energy release in a region.The risk analysis is extended here using the part process statistical model of Gumbel's IIIrd asymptotic distribution of extreme values. The circum-Pacific is chosen being a complete earthquake data set, and the stability postulate on which asymptotic distributions of extremes are deduced to give similar results to those obtained from whole process or exact distributions of extremes is successfully checked. Additionally, when Gumbel III asymptotic distribution curve fitting is compared with Gumbel I using reduced chi-squared it is seen to be preferable in all cases and it also allows extensions to an upper-bounded range of magnitude occurrences. Examining the regional seismicity generates several seismic risk results, for example, the annual mode for all regions is greater thanm(1)=7.0, with the maximum being in the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka region atm(1)=7.6. Overall, the most hazardous areas are situated in this northwestern region and also diagonally opposite in the southeastern circum-Pacific. Relationships are established between the Gumbel III parameters and quantitiesm ₁(1),X ₂ and , quantities notionally similar toM ₁,M ₂ andM ₃ although is shown to be systematically larger thanM; thereby giving a physical link through strain energy release to seismic risk statistics. Inall regions of the circum-Pacific similar results are obtained forM ₁,M ₂ andM ₃ and the notionally corresponding statistical quantitiesm ₁(1),X ₂ and , demonstrating that the relationships obtained are valid over a wide range of seismotectonic enviroments.  相似文献   

中国暴雨面雨量极值分布   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王家祁  胡明思 《水科学进展》1993,4(1):1-9

研究了暴雨面积、面平均雨深、暴雨降水总量等有关面暴雨量极值的主要内容;给出了最大时面深记录等各种雨量极值;探讨了面暴雨极值的地域分布规律和影响因素。  相似文献   

Trends in UK extreme sea-levels: a spatial approach     

Mark J. Dixon  Jonathan A. Tawn 《Geophysical Journal International》1992,111(3):607-616

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The construction of extreme compositions     

Ross M. Renner 《Mathematical Geology》1995,27(4):485-497

If a geochemical compositional dataset X (n×p)is a realization of a physical mixing process, then each of its sample (row) vectors will approximately be a convex combination (mixture) of a fixed set of (l×p)extreme compositions termed endmembers. The kpoints in p-space corresponding to a specified set of k (klinearly independent endmember estimates associated with a p-variate (n×p)compositional dataset X,define the vertices of a (k–1)dimensional simplex H.The nestimated mixtures X (n×p)which together account for the systematic variation in the dataset X,should each be convex combinations of the kfixed endmember estimates. Accordingly,the npoints in p-space which represent these mixtures should be interior points of the simplex H.Otherwise, for each sample point which lies outside H,at least one of the mixture coefficients (endmember contributions) will be negative. The purpose of this paper is to describe procedures for expanding H in the situation that its vertices are not a set of extreme points for the set which represents the mixtures.  相似文献   

“7·20”河南极端暴雨精细观测及热动力成因          下载免费PDF全文

齐道日娜  何立富  王秀明  陈双 《应用气象学报》2022,33(1):1-15

利用分钟降水资料、FY-4A气象卫星高分辨率资料、多普勒天气雷达资料和ERA5再分析资料对2021年“7·20”河南极端暴雨过程中尺度系统精细结构及热动力发展机制进行观测分析和诊断研究, 结果表明: 该过程发生在“两高对峙”的鞍型场弱背景下, 其主导系统为500 hPa弱低压系统和低层偏东风切变线; 极端暴雨主要由水平尺度约300 km呈近乎圆形结构中尺度对流复合体产生, 其长时间维持与内部多个中尺度对流系统的合并及外围东南侧暖湿区新生单体的持续并入有关; 郑州站小时强降水(201.9 mm· h-1)由几乎静止的低质心β中尺度弓状回波产生, 其分钟降水量持续在3~4.7 mm; 边界层风场的动力辐合触发强烈对流, 使得强降水区上空θ_se锋区长时间处于中性层结, 其高层辐散气流在西北太平洋副热带高压附近构成次级环流下沉支; 中层500 hPa低压区气旋式曲率附近正涡度平流和925 hPa偏东气流持续暖平流输送、低层变形场锋生作用, 以及来自华东近海边界层急流异常强盛的水汽输送是此次极端过程发展维持的热动力学成因。  相似文献   

Strengthened influence of the East Asian trough on spring extreme precipitation variability over eastern Southwest China after the late 1980s          下载免费PDF全文

Yating Nan  Jianqi Sun  Mengqi Zhang  Haixu Hong  Junpeng Yuan 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(5):100191

The relationship between variations in the East Asian trough (EAT) intensity and spring extreme precipitation over Southwest China (SWC) during 1961–2020 is investigated. The results indicate that there is an interdecadal increase in the relationship between the EAT and spring extreme precipitation over eastern SWC around the late 1980s. During the latter period, the weak (strong) EAT corresponds to a strong and large-scale anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the East Asia–Northwest Pacific region. The EAT-related anomalous southerlies (northerlies) dominate eastern SWC, leading to significant upward (downward) motion and moisture convergence (divergence) over the region, providing favorable (unfavorable) dynamic and moisture conditions for extreme precipitation over eastern SWC. In contrast, during the former period, the EAT-related circulation anomalies are weak and cover a relatively smaller region, which cannot significantly affect the moisture and dynamic conditions over eastern SWC; therefore, the response in extreme precipitation over eastern SWC to EAT is weak over the period. The interdecadal change in the relationship between eastern SWC spring extreme precipitation and the EAT could be related to the interdecadal change in the EAT variability. The large (small) variability of the EAT is associated with significant (insignificant) changes in spring extreme precipitation over eastern SWC during the latter (former) period.摘要本文研究表明东亚大槽强度与中国西南地区东部春季极端降水的关系在20世纪80年代末后显著增强, 这可能与东亚大槽自身变率的年代际变化有关. 在80年代末之后, 东亚大槽的变率显著增强, 其对应的大气环流异常也偏强, 范围偏大, 可以显著影响西南地区东部的水汽和动力条件, 从而引起该地区春季极端降水的显著变化. 而在80年代末之前, 东亚大槽的变率偏弱, 其对应的大气环流异常也偏弱, 范围偏小, 因此不能对西南地区东部春季极端降水的变化产生显著影响.  相似文献